Overview-Climate Change - Revision history

Kirk: /* Climate models have accurately predicted global heating, study finds */

2025-07-31T16:18:18Z

Climate models have accurately predicted global heating, study finds

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	=====Climate models have accurately predicted global heating, study finds=====		=====Climate models have accurately predicted global heating, study finds=====
	~~<embed>~~https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/dec/04/climate-models-have-accurately-predicted-global-heating-study-finds</~~embed>~~		[https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/dec/04/climate-models-have-accurately-predicted-global-heating-study-finds 04/12/2019 The Guardian]
	The findings confirm that since as early as 1970, climate scientists have had a solid fundamental understanding of the Earth’s climate system and the ability to project how it will respond to continued increases in the greenhouse effect. Since climate models have accurately anticipated global temperature changes so far, we can expect projections of future warming to be reliable as well.		The findings confirm that since as early as 1970, climate scientists have had a solid fundamental understanding of the Earth’s climate system and the ability to project how it will respond to continued increases in the greenhouse effect. Since climate models have accurately anticipated global temperature changes so far, we can expect projections of future warming to be reliable as well.

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	The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) introduced the idea of tipping points two decades ago. At that time, these ‘large-scale discontinuities’ in the climate system were considered likely only if global warming exceeded 5 °C above pre-industrial levels. Information summarized in the two most recent IPCC Special Reports (published in 2018 and in September this year)2,3 suggests that tipping points could be exceeded even between 1 and 2 °C of warming (see ‘Too close for comfort’).		The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) introduced the idea of tipping points two decades ago. At that time, these ‘large-scale discontinuities’ in the climate system were considered likely only if global warming exceeded 5 °C above pre-industrial levels. Information summarized in the two most recent IPCC Special Reports (published in 2018 and in September this year)2,3 suggests that tipping points could be exceeded even between 1 and 2 °C of warming (see ‘Too close for comfort’).

	If current national pledges to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions are implemented — and that’s a big ‘if’ — they are likely to result in at least 3 °C of global warming. This is despite the goal of the 2015 Paris agreement to limit warming to well below 2 °C. Some economists, assuming that climate tipping points are of very low probability (even if they would be catastrophic), have suggested that 3 °C warming is optimal from a cost–benefit perspective. However, if tipping points are looking more likely, then the ‘optimal policy’ recommendation of simple cost–benefit climate-economy models4 aligns with those of the recent IPCC report2. In other words, warming must be limited to 1.5 °C. This requires an emergency response.		If current national pledges to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions are implemented — and that’s a big ‘if’ — they are likely to result in at least 3 °C of global warming. This is despite the goal of the 2015 Paris agreement to limit warming to well below 2 °C. Some economists, assuming that climate tipping points are of very low probability (even if they would be catastrophic), have suggested that 3 °C warming is optimal from a cost–benefit perspective. However, if tipping points are looking more likely, then the ‘optimal policy’ recommendation of simple cost–benefit climate-economy models4 aligns with those of the recent IPCC report2. In other words, warming must be limited to 1.5 °C. This requires an emergency response.

	=====Coal Knew, Too=====		=====Coal Knew, Too=====

Lilly at 14:39, 14 July 2025

2025-07-14T14:39:43Z

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	NYTime Greenland Melt.jpg\|\|alt=How Scientists Got Climate Change So Wrong		NYTime Greenland Melt.jpg\|\|alt=How Scientists Got Climate Change So Wrong
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			===== Climate change poses mounting threat to India’s data centres, warns global report =====
			[https://www.thehindu.com/sci-tech/energy-and-environment/climate-change-poses-mounting-threat-to-indias-data-centres-warns-global-report/article69800200.ece by PURNIMA SAH 11/7/25 THE HINDU]
			As global demand for artificial intelligence, cloud computing, and digital services accelerates data centre development, a new report has warned that these critical infrastructures face escalating physical risks from climate change. The 2025 Global Data Centre Physical Climate Risk and Adaptation Report, released by the Cross Dependency Initiative (XDI), offers a comprehensive assessment of climate vulnerabilities across nearly 9,000 operational and planned data centres worldwide.

	===== Trump officials axed an online portal for its key climate report. Read it in full here =====		===== Trump officials axed an online portal for its key climate report. Read it in full here =====

Lilly at 09:49, 13 July 2025

2025-07-13T09:49:35Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 09:49, 13 July 2025
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	NYTime Greenland Melt.jpg\|\|alt=How Scientists Got Climate Change So Wrong		NYTime Greenland Melt.jpg\|\|alt=How Scientists Got Climate Change So Wrong
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			===== Trump officials axed an online portal for its key climate report. Read it in full here =====
			[https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jul/10/national-climate-assessment-published by Oliver Milman 10/7/25 The Guardian]
			Five national climate assessments have been compiled since 2000 by researchers across a dozen US government agencies and outside scientists, providing a gold standard report to city and state officials, as well as the general public, of global heating and its impacts upon human health, agriculture, water supplies, air pollution and other aspects of American life.

	===== Financial models on climate risk ‘implausible’, say actuaries =====		===== Financial models on climate risk ‘implausible’, say actuaries =====
	[https://www.ft.com/content/a5027391-41a4-4e21-a72d-f8189d6a7b71 by Camilla Hodgson 3/7/23 FINANCIAL TIMES]		[https://www.ft.com/content/a5027391-41a4-4e21-a72d-f8189d6a7b71 by Camilla Hodgson 3/7/23 FINANCIAL TIMES]

Lilly at 09:07, 11 July 2025

2025-07-11T09:07:51Z

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	NYTime Greenland Melt.jpg\|\|alt=How Scientists Got Climate Change So Wrong		NYTime Greenland Melt.jpg\|\|alt=How Scientists Got Climate Change So Wrong
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			===== Financial models on climate risk ‘implausible’, say actuaries =====
			[https://www.ft.com/content/a5027391-41a4-4e21-a72d-f8189d6a7b71 by Camilla Hodgson 3/7/23 FINANCIAL TIMES]
			Financial institutions often did not understand the models they were using to predict the economic cost of climate change and were underestimating the risks of temperature rises, research led by a professional body of actuaries shows.

	===== Understanding the role of the sun in climate change =====		===== Understanding the role of the sun in climate change =====
	[https://phys.org/news/2023-07-role-sun-climate.amp by Nicola Scafetta 6/7/23 PHYS ORG]		[https://phys.org/news/2023-07-role-sun-climate.amp by Nicola Scafetta 6/7/23 PHYS ORG]

Lilly at 09:46, 10 July 2025

2025-07-10T09:46:44Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 09:46, 10 July 2025
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			===== Understanding the role of the sun in climate change =====
			[https://phys.org/news/2023-07-role-sun-climate.amp by Nicola Scafetta 6/7/23 PHYS ORG]
			The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) supports the latter view and estimates that almost 100% of the observed warming of the Earth's surface from 1850–1900 to 2020 was caused by man-made emissions. This is known as the anthropogenic global warming (AGWT) theory.

	===== Earth Matters: James Hansen warned us about climate change 35 years ago this month =====		===== Earth Matters: James Hansen warned us about climate change 35 years ago this month =====
	[https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/6/1/2172434/-Earth-Matters-James-Hansen-warned-us-about-climate-change-35-years-ago-this-month by Staff Emeritus 1/6/23 DAILY KOS]		[https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/6/1/2172434/-Earth-Matters-James-Hansen-warned-us-about-climate-change-35-years-ago-this-month by Staff Emeritus 1/6/23 DAILY KOS]

Lilly at 09:44, 10 July 2025

2025-07-10T09:44:09Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 09:44, 10 July 2025
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	NYTime Greenland Melt.jpg\|\|alt=How Scientists Got Climate Change So Wrong		NYTime Greenland Melt.jpg\|\|alt=How Scientists Got Climate Change So Wrong
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			===== Earth Matters: James Hansen warned us about climate change 35 years ago this month =====
			[https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/6/1/2172434/-Earth-Matters-James-Hansen-warned-us-about-climate-change-35-years-ago-this-month by Staff Emeritus 1/6/23 DAILY KOS]
			“The present observed global warming is close to 0.4 degrees C [0.72 F], relative to ‘climatology,’ which is defined as the thirty-year (1951–1980) mean. A warming of 0.4 degrees C is three times larger than the standard deviation of annual mean temperatures in the 30-year climatology. The standard deviation of 0.13 degrees C i[0.23 F] is a typical amount by which the global temperature fluctuates annually about its 30-year mean; the probability of a chance warming of three standard deviations is about 1 percent. Thus, we can state with about 99 percent confidence that current temperatures represent a real warming trend rather than a chance fluctuation over the 30-year period.”—James Hansen testifying to the U.S. Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources on June 23, 1988.

	===== Understanding the role of the sun in climate change =====		===== Understanding the role of the sun in climate change =====

Lilly at 11:43, 7 July 2025

2025-07-07T11:43:22Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 11:43, 7 July 2025
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	NYTime Greenland Melt.jpg\|\|alt=How Scientists Got Climate Change So Wrong		NYTime Greenland Melt.jpg\|\|alt=How Scientists Got Climate Change So Wrong
	</gallery>		</gallery>

			===== Understanding the role of the sun in climate change =====
			[https://phys.org/news/2023-07-role-sun-climate.amp by Nicola Scafetta 6/7/23 PHYS ORG]
			The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) supports the latter view and estimates that almost 100% of the observed warming of the Earth's surface from 1850–1900 to 2020 was caused by man-made emissions. This is known as the anthropogenic global warming (AGWT) theory.

	===== Earth Matters: James Hansen warned us about climate change 35 years ago this month =====		===== Earth Matters: James Hansen warned us about climate change 35 years ago this month =====

Lilly at 11:39, 7 July 2025

2025-07-07T11:39:53Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 11:39, 7 July 2025
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	NYTime Greenland Melt.jpg\|\|alt=How Scientists Got Climate Change So Wrong		NYTime Greenland Melt.jpg\|\|alt=How Scientists Got Climate Change So Wrong
	</gallery>		</gallery>

			===== Earth Matters: James Hansen warned us about climate change 35 years ago this month =====
			[https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/6/1/2172434/-Earth-Matters-James-Hansen-warned-us-about-climate-change-35-years-ago-this-month by Staff Emeritus 1/6/23 DAILY KOS]
			“The present observed global warming is close to 0.4 degrees C [0.72 F], relative to ‘climatology,’ which is defined as the thirty-year (1951–1980) mean. A warming of 0.4 degrees C is three times larger than the standard deviation of annual mean temperatures in the 30-year climatology. The standard deviation of 0.13 degrees C i[0.23 F] is a typical amount by which the global temperature fluctuates annually about its 30-year mean; the probability of a chance warming of three standard deviations is about 1 percent. Thus, we can state with about 99 percent confidence that current temperatures represent a real warming trend rather than a chance fluctuation over the 30-year period.”—James Hansen testifying to the U.S. Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources on June 23, 1988.

	===== The Trump administration has shut down more than 100 climate studies =====		===== The Trump administration has shut down more than 100 climate studies =====

Lilly at 13:02, 6 July 2025

2025-07-06T13:02:06Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 13:02, 6 July 2025
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	NYTime Greenland Melt.jpg\|\|alt=How Scientists Got Climate Change So Wrong		NYTime Greenland Melt.jpg\|\|alt=How Scientists Got Climate Change So Wrong
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			===== The Trump administration has shut down more than 100 climate studies =====
			[https://www.technologyreview.com/2025/06/02/1117653/the-trump-administration-has-shut-down-more-than-100-climate-studies/ by James Temple 2/6/25 MIT Technology Review]
			The Trump administration has terminated National Science Foundation grants for more than 100 research projects related to climate change amid a widening campaign to slash federal funding for scientists and institutions studying the rising risks of a warming world.

	===== We are damned fools’: scientist who sounded climate alarm in 80s warns of worse to come =====		===== We are damned fools’: scientist who sounded climate alarm in 80s warns of worse to come =====

Lilly at 13:01, 6 July 2025

2025-07-06T13:01:04Z

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	NYTime Greenland Melt.jpg\|\|alt=How Scientists Got Climate Change So Wrong		NYTime Greenland Melt.jpg\|\|alt=How Scientists Got Climate Change So Wrong
	</gallery>		</gallery>

			===== We are damned fools’: scientist who sounded climate alarm in 80s warns of worse to come =====
			[https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jul/19/climate-crisis-james-hansen-scientist-warning by Oliver Milman 19/7/23 The Guardian]
			The world is shifting towards a superheated climate not seen in the past 1m years, prior to human existence, because “we are damned fools” for not acting upon warnings over the climate crisis, according to James Hansen, the US scientist who alerted the world to the greenhouse effect in the 1980s.

	===== Dr James Hansen Warns Climate is Heating up way faster than IPCC forecasts & he has the receipts =====		===== Dr James Hansen Warns Climate is Heating up way faster than IPCC forecasts & he has the receipts =====
	[https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/10/28/2202159/-Dr-James-Hansen-Warns-Climate-is-Heating-up-way-faster-than-IPCC-forecasts-he-has-the-receipts?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web by FishOutofWater 28/10/23 DAILY KOS]		[https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/10/28/2202159/-Dr-James-Hansen-Warns-Climate-is-Heating-up-way-faster-than-IPCC-forecasts-he-has-the-receipts?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web by FishOutofWater 28/10/23 DAILY KOS]