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Kirk: /* Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene */

2021-07-08T19:59:49Z

Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene

← Older revision		Revision as of 19:59, 8 July 2021
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	==== Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene ====		==== Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene ====
	[https://www.pnas.org/content/115/33/8252?fbclid=IwAR0d8w2bOfSR2hArSGObvdcXc-z3ljp5R1sv4KPMiqsmqNiIs3O8uX3gPxo Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene] PNAS August 14, 2018 Will Steffen, Johan Rockström,		[https://www.pnas.org/content/115/33/8252?fbclid=IwAR0d8w2bOfSR2hArSGObvdcXc-z3ljp5R1sv4KPMiqsmqNiIs3O8uX3gPxo Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene] PNAS August 14, 2018 Will Steffen, Johan Rockström,
	View ORCID ProfileKatherine Richardson, Timothy M. Lenton, Carl Folke,		View ORCID ProfileKatherine Richardson, Timothy M. Lenton, Carl Folke,<blockquote>


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	The impacts of a Hothouse Earth pathway on human societies would likely be massive, sometimes abrupt, and undoubtedly disruptive.		The impacts of a Hothouse Earth pathway on human societies would likely be massive, sometimes abrupt, and undoubtedly disruptive.

	Avoiding this threshold by creating a Stabilized Earth pathway can only be achieved and maintained by a coordinated, deliberate effort by human societies to manage our relationship with the rest of the Earth System, recognizing that humanity is an integral, interacting component of the system. Humanity is now facing the need for critical decisions and actions that could influence our future for centuries, if not millennia		Avoiding this threshold by creating a Stabilized Earth pathway can only be achieved and maintained by a coordinated, deliberate effort by human societies to manage our relationship with the rest of the Earth System, recognizing that humanity is an integral, interacting component of the system. Humanity is now facing the need for critical decisions and actions that could influence our future for centuries, if not millennia </blockquote>

	===== Ending greenhouse gas emissions may not stop global warming: study =====		===== Ending greenhouse gas emissions may not stop global warming: study =====

Kirk: /* The Rumbling ESAS Methane Enigma */

2021-07-08T19:58:55Z

The Rumbling ESAS Methane Enigma

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 ===== Ending greenhouse gas emissions may not stop global warming: study =====

Kirk at 16:29, 13 November 2020

2020-11-13T16:29:52Z

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			===== Ending greenhouse gas emissions may not stop global warming: study =====
			[https://phys.org/news/2020-11-greenhouse-gas-emissions-global.html?fbclid=IwAR1XkhneHmWEpzWoHmqIzG6ACNOD-_y15j3QdXbZR4smBJZqjLgKuwVEt_0 Marlowe Hood 11/12/2020 Phys.Org]

			Even if humanity stopped emitting greenhouse gases tomorrow, Earth will warm for centuries to come and oceans will rise by metres, according to a controversial modelling study published Thursday.

			Natural drivers of global warming—more heat-trapping clouds, thawing permafrost, and shrinking sea ice—already set in motion by carbon pollution will take on their own momentum, researchers from Norway reported in the Nature journal ''Scientific Reports''.

	=====The Rumbling ESAS Methane Enigma=====		=====The Rumbling ESAS Methane Enigma=====
	<embed>https://citywatchla.com/index.php/cw/los-angeles/19179-the-rumbling-esas-methane-enigma</embed>		<embed>https://citywatchla.com/index.php/cw/los-angeles/19179-the-rumbling-esas-methane-enigma</embed>

D: SEO

2020-07-30T23:15:43Z

SEO

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			{{#seo:
			\|title=Curated News Gallery from all over the Web
			\|description=Curated news selected for its relevance, longevity and non-prescriptive content.
			\|keywords=BLM, black lives matter,Portland,federal forces,climate change,Ruth Bader Ginsberg,systemic racism,custom search engine,free classified ads
			\|image=https://www.gannett-cdn.com/presto/2020/07/23/USAT/ee3a642b-9c02-403b-960f-cffaaef37a62-LaT.jpeg?width=1320&height=882&fit=crop&format=pjpg&auto=webp
			\|image_width=300
			\|image_height=200
			}}
	=====The Rumbling ESAS Methane Enigma=====		=====The Rumbling ESAS Methane Enigma=====
	<embed>https://citywatchla.com/index.php/cw/los-angeles/19179-the-rumbling-esas-methane-enigma</embed>		<embed>https://citywatchla.com/index.php/cw/los-angeles/19179-the-rumbling-esas-methane-enigma</embed>

Kirk: Embed

2020-07-03T23:35:31Z

Embed

← Older revision		Revision as of 23:35, 3 July 2020
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	=====The Rumbling ESAS Methane Enigma=====		=====The Rumbling ESAS Methane Enigma=====
	[https://citywatchla.com/index.php/cw/los-angeles/19179-the-rumbling-esas-methane-enigma~~?fbclid=IwAR1eEg7J2unNjKxPrqkftJ9Gw-s6x7YzpIVGmfLzfCX-kHD2Go4WW1xCdf4 City Watch 1/23~~/~~20]~~		<embed>https://citywatchla.com/index.php/cw/los-angeles/19179-the-rumbling-esas-methane-enigma</embed>
	Unfortunately, recent events in the high Arctic lean toward option number one ((1) high risk -- methane bursts will bury civilization with runaway global warming – a dreadful, deadly risk) as the more likely outcome. In that regard, I recently met with Dr. Peter Wadhams, world-renowned Arctic expert, to discuss the issue (more on that follows).		Unfortunately, recent events in the high Arctic lean toward option number one ((1) high risk -- methane bursts will bury civilization with runaway global warming – a dreadful, deadly risk) as the more likely outcome. In that regard, I recently met with Dr. Peter Wadhams, world-renowned Arctic expert, to discuss the issue (more on that follows).

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	=====Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene=====		=====Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene=====
	[https://www.pnas.org/content/115/33/8252~~?fbclid=IwAR3NoKmxKvlMEusyfGXNyC81Y4O0hyd5y-eWHXGrDOuEb6by3imTyD1qLGU PNAS.org 8/14~~/~~2019]~~		<embed>https://www.pnas.org/content/115/33/8252</embed>

	'''Risk of a Hothouse Earth Pathway'''		'''Risk of a Hothouse Earth Pathway'''

Kirk at 18:01, 26 January 2020

2020-01-26T18:01:43Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 18:01, 26 January 2020
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			=====The Rumbling ESAS Methane Enigma=====
			[https://citywatchla.com/index.php/cw/los-angeles/19179-the-rumbling-esas-methane-enigma?fbclid=IwAR1eEg7J2unNjKxPrqkftJ9Gw-s6x7YzpIVGmfLzfCX-kHD2Go4WW1xCdf4 City Watch 1/23/20]
			Unfortunately, recent events in the high Arctic lean toward option number one ((1) high risk -- methane bursts will bury civilization with runaway global warming – a dreadful, deadly risk) as the more likely outcome. In that regard, I recently met with Dr. Peter Wadhams, world-renowned Arctic expert, to discuss the issue (more on that follows).

			As it happens, only recently, inordinately high levels of methane emissions have been reported, to wit:

			(1) Methane Observation -- October 2019 -- “This is the most powerful seep I have ever been able to observe. . .No one has ever recorded anything similar.” (Source: Research Vessel Encounters Giant Methane Seep in Arctic Waters, The Maritime Executive, Oct. 10, 2019) The quote is from Professor Igor Semiletov, Tomsk Polytechnic University, on the research vessel Academic M.A. Lavrentyev on a 40-day Arctic mission.

			(2) Methane Observation -- December 2019 -- Three months later at COP25 in Madrid, Dr. Peter Carter, an IPCC expert reviewer, in an interview d/d December 10, 2019, referenced an ongoing eruption of methane above Barrow, Alaska, saying: “We’ve never seen anything like it. And, it has stayed at elevated levels to the present week. Looking at the 2.2 million-year ice core, the maximum methane concentration ever was 800 ppb. In Barrow, Alaska it is 2,050 ppb and staying there. It’s been up there for four months.”



	=====Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene=====		=====Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene=====
	[https://www.pnas.org/content/115/33/8252?fbclid=IwAR3NoKmxKvlMEusyfGXNyC81Y4O0hyd5y-eWHXGrDOuEb6by3imTyD1qLGU PNAS.org 8/14/2019]		[https://www.pnas.org/content/115/33/8252?fbclid=IwAR3NoKmxKvlMEusyfGXNyC81Y4O0hyd5y-eWHXGrDOuEb6by3imTyD1qLGU PNAS.org 8/14/2019]

Kirk: /* Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene */

2019-11-30T01:31:19Z

Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene

← Older revision		Revision as of 01:31, 30 November 2019
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	Limit Cycles and Planetary Thresholds.		Limit Cycles and Planetary Thresholds.
	The trajectory of the Earth System through the Late Quaternary, particularly the Holocene, provides the context for exploring the human-driven changes of the Anthropocene and the future trajectories of the system (SI Appendix has more detail). Fig. 1 shows a simplified representation of complex Earth System dynamics, where the physical climate system is subjected to the effects of slow changes in Earth’s orbit and inclination. Over the Late Quaternary (past 1.2 million years), the system has remained bounded between glacial and interglacial extremes. Not every glacial–interglacial cycle of the past million years follows precisely the same trajectory (7), but the cycles follow the same overall pathway (a term that we use to refer to a family of broadly similar trajectories). The full glacial and interglacial states and the ca. 100,000-years oscillations between them in the Late Quaternary loosely constitute limit cycles (technically, the asymptotic dynamics of ice ages are best modeled as pullback attractors in a nonautonomous dynamical system). This limit cycle is shown in a schematic fashion in blue in Fig. 1, Lower Left using temperature and sea level as the axes. The Holocene is represented by the top of the limit cycle loop near the label A.		The trajectory of the Earth System through the Late Quaternary, particularly the Holocene, provides the context for exploring the human-driven changes of the Anthropocene and the future trajectories of the system (SI Appendix has more detail). Fig. 1 shows a simplified representation of complex Earth System dynamics, where the physical climate system is subjected to the effects of slow changes in Earth’s orbit and inclination. Over the Late Quaternary (past 1.2 million years), the system has remained bounded between glacial and interglacial extremes. Not every glacial–interglacial cycle of the past million years follows precisely the same trajectory (7), but the cycles follow the same overall pathway (a term that we use to refer to a family of broadly similar trajectories). The full glacial and interglacial states and the ca. 100,000-years oscillations between them in the Late Quaternary loosely constitute limit cycles (technically, the asymptotic dynamics of ice ages are best modeled as pullback attractors in a nonautonomous dynamical system). This limit cycle is shown in a schematic fashion in blue in Fig. 1, Lower Left using temperature and sea level as the axes. The Holocene is represented by the top of the limit cycle loop near the label A.

			Our analysis suggests that the Earth System may be approaching a planetary threshold that could lock in a continuing rapid pathway toward much hotter conditions—Hothouse Earth. This pathway would be propelled by strong, intrinsic, biogeophysical feedbacks difficult to influence by human actions, a pathway that could not be reversed, steered, or substantially slowed.

			Where such a threshold might be is uncertain, but it could be only decades ahead at a temperature rise of ∼2.0 °C above preindustrial, and thus, it could be within the range of the Paris Accord temperature targets.

			The impacts of a Hothouse Earth pathway on human societies would likely be massive, sometimes abrupt, and undoubtedly disruptive.

Kirk at 01:30, 30 November 2019

2019-11-30T01:30:05Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 01:30, 30 November 2019
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	=====Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene=====		=====Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene=====
	~~<embed>~~https://www.pnas.org/content/115/33/8252?fbclid=IwAR3NoKmxKvlMEusyfGXNyC81Y4O0hyd5y-eWHXGrDOuEb6by3imTyD1qLGU PNAS.org 8/14/2019~~</embed>~~		[https://www.pnas.org/content/115/33/8252?fbclid=IwAR3NoKmxKvlMEusyfGXNyC81Y4O0hyd5y-eWHXGrDOuEb6by3imTyD1qLGU PNAS.org 8/14/2019]

	'''Risk of a Hothouse Earth Pathway'''		'''Risk of a Hothouse Earth Pathway'''

Kirk at 01:29, 30 November 2019

2019-11-30T01:29:29Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 01:29, 30 November 2019
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	=====Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene=====		=====Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene=====
	[https://www.pnas.org/content/115/33/8252?fbclid=IwAR3NoKmxKvlMEusyfGXNyC81Y4O0hyd5y-eWHXGrDOuEb6by3imTyD1qLGU PNAS.org 8/14/2019]		<embed>https://www.pnas.org/content/115/33/8252?fbclid=IwAR3NoKmxKvlMEusyfGXNyC81Y4O0hyd5y-eWHXGrDOuEb6by3imTyD1qLGU PNAS.org 8/14/2019</embed>

	'''Risk of a Hothouse Earth Pathway'''		'''Risk of a Hothouse Earth Pathway'''

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2019-11-30T01:28:33Z

Created page with "=====Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene===== [https://www.pnas.org/content/115/33/8252?fbclid=IwAR3NoKmxKvlMEusyfGXNyC81Y4O0hyd5y-eWHXGrDOuEb6by3imTyD1qLGU P..."

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=====Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene=====
[https://www.pnas.org/content/115/33/8252?fbclid=IwAR3NoKmxKvlMEusyfGXNyC81Y4O0hyd5y-eWHXGrDOuEb6by3imTyD1qLGU PNAS.org 8/14/2019]

'''Risk of a Hothouse Earth Pathway'''

Limit Cycles and Planetary Thresholds.
The trajectory of the Earth System through the Late Quaternary, particularly the Holocene, provides the context for exploring the human-driven changes of the Anthropocene and the future trajectories of the system (SI Appendix has more detail). Fig. 1 shows a simplified representation of complex Earth System dynamics, where the physical climate system is subjected to the effects of slow changes in Earth’s orbit and inclination. Over the Late Quaternary (past 1.2 million years), the system has remained bounded between glacial and interglacial extremes. Not every glacial–interglacial cycle of the past million years follows precisely the same trajectory (7), but the cycles follow the same overall pathway (a term that we use to refer to a family of broadly similar trajectories). The full glacial and interglacial states and the ca. 100,000-years oscillations between them in the Late Quaternary loosely constitute limit cycles (technically, the asymptotic dynamics of ice ages are best modeled as pullback attractors in a nonautonomous dynamical system). This limit cycle is shown in a schematic fashion in blue in Fig. 1, Lower Left using temperature and sea level as the axes. The Holocene is represented by the top of the limit cycle loop near the label A.