Climate Change-Foundational: Difference between revisions

From WikiDemocracy
Jump to navigationJump to search
 
(29 intermediate revisions by 3 users not shown)
Line 1: Line 1:
This page is a "foundation" page not a "solutions" page. It connects to some of the ongoing research in the field of climate change. The potential "solutions" are listed on a separate page.
{{#seo:
|title=History and Basic Facts of Climate Change
|description=Compilation of online articles that lay out the evidence of Anthropomorphic Climate Change.  
|keywords=co2,emmissions,anthropogenic,global warming, Anthropocene, greenhouse gas, observatory, isotopes, carbon emissions
|image=File:Global Mean Temperature Graph.jpg
|image_width=300
|image_height=200
}}
'''''See improvements you could make on this page?--Go ahead [[Special:CreateAccount|become a member]] and make your changes. '''''


=====Peer-reviewed climate papers by climate skeptics=====
[https://skepticalscience.com/peerreviewedskeptics.php database was compiled by Dr James Powell]
This resource shows how many peer-reviewed papers have climate skeptics published that deny or cast doubt on human caused global warming. The database was compiled by Dr James Powell (geologist, author of The Inquisition of Climate Science). Only primary articles found via the Web of Science were included. More details are given here.
===== The men behind rise of CSIRO’s climate modelling program =====
[https://cosmosmagazine.com/earth/climate/behind-the-rise-of-csiros-climate-model/ by Dr Ian Smith 21/6/25 cosmos]
Meteorologist and historian Dr Ian Smith, writing in “Historical Records of Australian Science,” pays tribute to two men who developed the first long term climate model in Australia which indicated the impacts of enhanced emissions in the atmosphere. Here, for Cosmos, Smith summarises the process of model development and explains the global impact of this research.
Despite Trump-Musk Feud, CO2 Milestone Is the 'Important News of the Day'
[https://www.commondreams.org/news/carbon-dioxide-record by Olivia Rosane 6/6/25 Common dreams]
The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere peaked above 430 parts per million in 2025—the highest it has been in millions of years—according to data released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California, San Diego on Thursday.
===== Why climate is an everyday story – but media coverage still spikes around special environment days and UN summits =====
[https://theconversation.com/why-climate-is-an-everyday-story-but-media-coverage-still-spikes-around-special-environment-days-and-un-summits-256286 by Sanam Mahoozi 6/04/25 The Conversation]
Climate change is already happening. But 36% of the world’s population still disputes the realities of its origins and impacts. When the science is clear but public understanding lags, more lives and livelihoods are put at risk.
===== Welcome To the Anthropocene - The Age Of Human Die-offs =====
[https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/7/27/2112882/-Welcome-To-the-Anthropocene-The-Age-Of-Human-Die-offs?pm_source=story_sidebar&pm_medium=web&pm_campaign=recommended by thomhartmann 27/7/22 DAILY KOS]
The world today is on the verge of a major food emergency, provoked in part by Russia’s attack on Ukraine but more broadly by the damage heat from global warming is doing to crops worldwide. This is both a crisis and an opportunity.
===== What is a carbon footprint? =====
[https://www.nature.org/en-us/get-involved/how-to-help/carbon-footprint-calculator/#:~:text=Globally%2C%20the%20average%20carbon%20footprint,tons%20doesn't%20happen%20overnight! by The Nature Conservancy 2025]
. Globally, the average carbon footprint is closer to 4 tons. To have the best chance of avoiding a 2℃ rise in global temperatures, the average global carbon footprint per year needs to drop to under 2 tons by 2050. Lowering individual carbon footprints from 16 tons to 2 tons doesn’t happen overnight!


===== First the data which establishes the steady and persistent increase in Co2 and other greenhouse gasses. =====
===== First the data which establishes the steady and persistent increase in Co2 and other greenhouse gasses. =====
Line 26: Line 59:
  Ample physical evidence shows that carbon dioxide (CO2) is the single most important climate-relevant greenhouse gas in Earth’s atmosphere. This is because CO2, like ozone, N2O, CH4, and chlorofluorocarbons, does not condense and precipitate from the atmosphere at current climate temperatures, whereas water vapor can and does. [http://science.sciencemag.org/content/330/6002/356 A more rigorous scientific explanation.]
  Ample physical evidence shows that carbon dioxide (CO2) is the single most important climate-relevant greenhouse gas in Earth’s atmosphere. This is because CO2, like ozone, N2O, CH4, and chlorofluorocarbons, does not condense and precipitate from the atmosphere at current climate temperatures, whereas water vapor can and does. [http://science.sciencemag.org/content/330/6002/356 A more rigorous scientific explanation.]


===== Next: Is there an anthropomorphic (human) connection between the steady rises in Co2 and other greenhouse gases and the historic increase in the burning of fossil fuels?=====
Foote’s 1856 experiment was simple: she placed glass jars containing different gases out in the sun and measured their temperature. The jars with carbon dioxide were hottest, and therefore had absorbed the most heat. Writing up her results, she generalized this dynamic to the planet as a whole — and speculated that it might have caused past eras to be hotter or colder. “No one deconstructed the atmosphere, and tested that deconstruction, until Eunice Foote’s breakthrough experiments,” [https://howwegettonext.com/the-forgotten-woman-who-discovered-the-greenhouse-effect-ad954a6ea7d9?fbclid=IwAR0z6UbQcBcLKZC5sATtujIVLr9EshlNQYWZ7g7pTGnkIRaVhUZNnlwf7co Next-The Woman who Unlocked the Greenhouse effect 5/05/2019]
 
===== Next: Is there an anthropogenic (human) connection between the steady rises in Co2 and other greenhouse gases and the historic increase in the burning of fossil fuels?=====


  Another, quite independent way that we know that fossil fuel burning and land clearing specifically are responsible for the increase in CO2 in the last 150 years is through the measurement of carbon isotopes.... CO2 produced from burning fossil fuels or burning forests has quite a different isotopic composition from CO2 in the atmosphere. This is because plants have a preference for the lighter isotopes (12C vs. 13C); thus they have lower 13C/12C ratios. Since fossil fuels are ultimately derived from ancient plants, plants and fossil fuels all have roughly the same 13C/12C ratio – about 2% lower than that of the atmosphere. As CO2 from these materials is released into, and mixes with, the atmosphere, the average 13C/12C ratio of the atmosphere decreases. [http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2004/12/how-do-we-know-that-recent-cosub2sub-increases-are-due-to-human-activities-updated/ Website: Real Climate]
  Another, quite independent way that we know that fossil fuel burning and land clearing specifically are responsible for the increase in CO2 in the last 150 years is through the measurement of carbon isotopes.... CO2 produced from burning fossil fuels or burning forests has quite a different isotopic composition from CO2 in the atmosphere. This is because plants have a preference for the lighter isotopes (12C vs. 13C); thus they have lower 13C/12C ratios. Since fossil fuels are ultimately derived from ancient plants, plants and fossil fuels all have roughly the same 13C/12C ratio – about 2% lower than that of the atmosphere. As CO2 from these materials is released into, and mixes with, the atmosphere, the average 13C/12C ratio of the atmosphere decreases. [http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2004/12/how-do-we-know-that-recent-cosub2sub-increases-are-due-to-human-activities-updated/ Website: Real Climate]
Line 32: Line 67:
  We know human activities are driving the increase in CO2 concentrations because atmospheric CO2 contains information about its source. Scientists can tease apart how much CO2 comes from natural sources, and how much comes from combusted fossil fuel sources. [https://www.ucsusa.org/global-warming/science-and-impacts/science/human-contribution-to-gw-faq.html#bf-toc-1 website: Union of Concerned Scientists]
  We know human activities are driving the increase in CO2 concentrations because atmospheric CO2 contains information about its source. Scientists can tease apart how much CO2 comes from natural sources, and how much comes from combusted fossil fuel sources. [https://www.ucsusa.org/global-warming/science-and-impacts/science/human-contribution-to-gw-faq.html#bf-toc-1 website: Union of Concerned Scientists]


===== Finally: What are the likely and potential effects of anthropomorphic climate change. =====
===== Finally: What are the likely and potential effects of anthropogenic climate change. =====


[https://science2017.globalchange.gov/ Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4), Volume I]
[https://science2017.globalchange.gov/ Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4), Volume I]


Executive Summary:
Executive Summary:


This assessment concludes, based on extensive evidence, that it is extremely likely that human activities, especially emissions of greenhouse gases, are the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century. For the warming over the last century, there is no convincing alternative explanation supported by the extent of the observational evidence.


Highlights of the Findings of the U.S. Global Change Research Program Climate Science Special Report
In addition to warming, many other aspects of global climate are changing, primarily in response to human activities. Thousands of studies conducted by researchers around the world have documented changes in surface, atmospheric, and oceanic temperatures; melting glaciers; diminishing snow cover; shrinking sea ice; rising sea levels; ocean acidification; and increasing atmospheric water vapor.
Recommended Citation
The climate of the United States is strongly connected to the changing global climate. The statements below highlight past, current, and projected climate changes for the United States and the globe.


Global annually averaged surface air temperature has increased by about 1.8°F (1.0°C) over the last 115 years (1901–2016). This period is now the warmest in the history of modern civilization. The last few years have also seen record-breaking, climate-related weather extremes, and the last three years have been the warmest years on record for the globe. These trends are expected to continue over climate timescales.
For example, global average sea level has risen by about 7–8 inches since 1900, with almost half (about 3 inches) of that rise occurring since 1993. Human-caused climate change has made a substantial contribution to this rise since 1900, contributing to a rate of rise that is greater than during any preceding century in at least 2,800 years. Global sea level rise has already affected the United States; the incidence of daily tidal flooding is accelerating in more than 25 Atlantic and Gulf Coast cities.


This assessment concludes, based on extensive evidence, that it is extremely likely that human activities, especially emissions of greenhouse gases, are the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century. For the warming over the last century, there is no convincing alternative explanation supported by the extent of the observational evidence.
Global average sea levels are expected to continue to rise—by at least several inches in the next 15 years and by 1–4 feet by 2100. A rise of as much as 8 feet by 2100 cannot be ruled out. Sea level rise will be higher than the global average on the East and Gulf Coasts of the United States.


In addition to warming, many other aspects of global climate are changing, primarily in response to human activities. Thousands of studies conducted by researchers around the world have documented changes in surface, atmospheric, and oceanic temperatures; melting glaciers; diminishing snow cover; shrinking sea ice; rising sea levels; ocean acidification; and increasing atmospheric water vapor.
Changes in the characteristics of extreme events are particularly important for human safety, infrastructure, agriculture, water quality and quantity, and natural ecosystems. Heavy rainfall is increasing in intensity and frequency across the United States and globally and is expected to continue to increase. The largest observed changes in the United States have occurred in the Northeast.


For example, global average sea level has risen by about 7–8 inches since 1900, with almost half (about 3 inches) of that rise occurring since 1993. Human-caused climate change has made a substantial contribution to this rise since 1900, contributing to a rate of rise that is greater than during any preceding century in at least 2,800 years. Global sea level rise has already affected the United States; the incidence of daily tidal flooding is accelerating in more than 25 Atlantic and Gulf Coast cities.
Heatwaves have become more frequent in the United States since the 1960s, while extreme cold temperatures and cold waves are less frequent. Recent record-setting hot years are projected to become common in the near future for the United States, as annual average temperatures continue to rise. Annual average temperature over the contiguous United States has increased by 1.8°F (1.0°C) for the period 1901–2016; over the next few decades (2021–2050), annual average temperatures are expected to rise by about 2.5°F for the United States, relative to the recent past (average from 1976–2005), under all plausible future climate scenarios.


Global average sea levels are expected to continue to rise—by at least several inches in the next 15 years and by 1–4 feet by 2100. A rise of as much as 8 feet by 2100 cannot be ruled out. Sea level rise will be higher than the global average on the East and Gulf Coasts of the United States.
The incidence of large forest fires in the western United States and Alaska has increased since the early 1980s and is projected to further increase in those regions as the climate changes, with profound changes to regional ecosystems.


Changes in the characteristics of extreme events are particularly important for human safety, infrastructure, agriculture, water quality and quantity, and natural ecosystems. Heavy rainfall is increasing in intensity and frequency across the United States and globally and is expected to continue to increase. The largest observed changes in the United States have occurred in the Northeast.
Annual trends toward earlier spring melt and reduced snowpack are already affecting water resources in the western United States and these trends are expected to continue. Under higher scenarios, and assuming no change to current water resources management, chronic, long-duration hydrological drought is increasingly possible before the end of this century.


Heatwaves have become more frequent in the United States since the 1960s, while extreme cold temperatures and cold waves are less frequent. Recent record-setting hot years are projected to become common in the near future for the United States, as annual average temperatures continue to rise. Annual average temperature over the contiguous United States has increased by 1.8°F (1.0°C) for the period 1901–2016; over the next few decades (2021–2050), annual average temperatures are expected to rise by about 2.5°F for the United States, relative to the recent past (average from 1976–2005), under all plausible future climate scenarios.
The magnitude of climate change beyond the next few decades will depend primarily on the amount of greenhouse gases (especially carbon dioxide) emitted globally. Without major reductions in emissions, the increase in annual average global temperature relative to preindustrial times could reach 9°F (5°C) or more by the end of this century. With significant reductions in emissions, the increase in annual average global temperature could be limited to 3.6°F (2°C) or less.


The incidence of large forest fires in the western United States and Alaska has increased since the early 1980s and is projected to further increase in those regions as the climate changes, with profound changes to regional ecosystems.
The global atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration has now passed 400 parts per million (ppm), a level that last occurred about 3 million years ago, when both global average temperature and sea level were significantly higher than today. Continued growth in CO2 emissions over this century and beyond would lead to an atmospheric concentration not experienced in tens to hundreds of millions of years. There is broad consensus that the further and the faster the Earth system is pushed towards warming, the greater the risk of unanticipated changes and impacts, some of which are potentially large and irreversible.


Annual trends toward earlier spring melt and reduced snowpack are already affecting water resources in the western United States and these trends are expected to continue. Under higher scenarios, and assuming no change to current water resources management, chronic, long-duration hydrological drought is increasingly possible before the end of this century.
The observed increase in carbon emissions over the past 15–20 years has been consistent with higher emissions pathways. In 2014 and 2015, emission growth rates slowed as economic growth became less carbon-intensive. Even if this slowing trend continues, however, it is not yet at a rate that would limit global average temperature change to well below 3.6°F (2°C) above preindustrial levels.


The magnitude of climate change beyond the next few decades will depend primarily on the amount of greenhouse gases (especially carbon dioxide) emitted globally. Without major reductions in emissions, the increase in annual average global temperature relative to preindustrial times could reach 9°F (5°C) or more by the end of this century. With significant reductions in emissions, the increase in annual average global temperature could be limited to 3.6°F (2°C) or less.
==Resources==
[https://www.nature.com/scitable/knowledge/library/ocean-acidification-25822734/ Ocean Acidification Nature Educational Article]


The global atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration has now passed 400 parts per million (ppm), a level that last occurred about 3 million years ago, when both global average temperature and sea level were significantly higher than today. Continued growth in CO2 emissions over this century and beyond would lead to an atmospheric concentration not experienced in tens to hundreds of millions of years. There is broad consensus that the further and the faster the Earth system is pushed towards warming, the greater the risk of unanticipated changes and impacts, some of which are potentially large and irreversible.
[https://www.climate.gov/news-features/climate-qa/which-emits-more-carbon-dioxide-volcanoes-or-human-activities?fbclid=IwAR24eNwcfwwt4-BiQHXC2oOb7ujH-Ja5S6kvMcIB9ghx3ySMUpyfC2O1T98 NOAA Climate.gov Volcanic activity]


The observed increase in carbon emissions over the past 15–20 years has been consistent with higher emissions pathways. In 2014 and 2015, emission growth rates slowed as economic growth became less carbon-intensive. Even if this slowing trend continues, however, it is not yet at a rate that would limit global average temperature change to well below 3.6°F (2°C) above preindustrial levels.
[https://www.skeptic.com/reading_room/how-we-know-global-warming-is-real/?gclid=CjwKCAiA35rxBRAWEiwADqB375zLm6VdTFU9FwuI5Wi_d2fhlFFzcrWQPYVy9Vgu_VtY_ezyBxbTAxoCQsoQAvD_BwE Eskeptic Foundational Overview by DR. Tapio Schneider]