Polar Melting

Arctic Shifts to Carbon Source – Stunning Reversal After Capturing Carbon for Tens of Thousands of Years

SciTechDaily 11/11/19

A NASA-funded study suggests winter carbon emissions in the Arctic may be adding more carbon into the atmosphere each year than is taken up by Arctic vegetation, marking a stark reversal for a region that has captured and stored carbon for tens of thousands of years.
The study, published October 21, 2019, in Nature Climate Change, warns that winter carbon dioxide loss from the world’s permafrost regions could increase by 41% over the next century if human-caused greenhouse gas emissions continue at their current pace. Carbon emitted from thawing permafrost has not been included in the majority of models used to predict future climates.

Large loss of CO2 in winter observed across the northern permafrost region

Nature 10/21/210

We estimate a contemporary loss of 1,662 TgC per year from the permafrost region during the winter season (October–April). This loss is greater than the average growing season carbon uptake for this region estimated from process models (−1,032 TgC per year). Extending model predictions to warmer conditions up to 2100 indicates that winter CO2 emissions will increase 17% under a moderate mitigation scenario—Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5—and 41% under business-as-usual emissions scenario—Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. Our results provide a baseline for winter CO2 emissions from northern terrestrial regions and indicate that enhanced soil CO2 loss due to winter warming may offset growing season carbon uptake under future climatic conditions.

Alaska's Hottest Month on Record: Melting Sea Ice, Wildfires and Unexpected Die-Offs

Inside Climate News 8/07/2019

Arctic sea ice hit a record low in July after an early start to the melt season, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). The sea ice volume Arctic-wide was about 47 percent lower than the average from 1979-2018.
In Alaska, the ice is now about 150 miles from shore—a phenomenon that has only occurred in recent years and never before September, according to Rick Thoman, a climate scientist with the Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy.

Research Highlight: Loss of Arctic's Reflective Sea Ice Will Advance Global Warming by 25 Years

Scripps 7/22/2019

Losing the remaining Arctic sea ice and its ability to reflect incoming solar energy back to space would be equivalent to adding one trillion tons of CO2 to the atmosphere, on top of the 2.4 trillion tons emitted since the Industrial Age, according to current and former researchers from Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California San Diego.

At current rates, this roughly equates to 25 years of global CO2 emissions. It would consequently speed up the arrival of a global threshold of warming of 2ºC beyond temperatures the world experienced before the Industrial Revolution.  Scientists and analysts, including the authors of an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report released in October 2018, have stated that the planet runs the risk of catastrophic damage ranging from more intense heat waves and coastal flooding to extinction of terrestrial species and threats to food supply if that threshold is passed.

What does ‘shrubification’ mean for the Arctic?

ArticToday 3/06/2018

In a 2017 literature review of 60 studies looking at shrub changes — including both the expansion of the shrub line and growth of existing shrub populations — across the high-latitude tundra, Myers-Smith and her co-author state that all studies found evidence of shrub line advance and growing populations. These studies spanned the Arctic, with sites in Northern Alaska, Canada, Scandinavia and Russia. The authors predicted that if conditions that favor shrub growth continue, tall willow cover in the region could increase by 20 percent in the next 50 years

Marine ice sheet instability amplifies and skews uncertainty in projections of future sea-level rise

PNAS 7/08/2019

We have shown that model ensembles can be used to quantify a range of possible scenarios for future sea-level rise, including potentially catastrophic scenarios of rapid sea-level rise. However, large model ensembles can be prohibitively expensive when extended to the entire Antarctic Ice Sheet. To fully capture the complete range of possible Antarctic futures, we will need efficient methods for uncertainty quantification (32, 37) and model order reduction that captures the complexities of ice sheet dynamics (31, 34). Such sophisticated methods will ensure that we can make the most useful sea-level projections beyond 2100 for those stakeholders who depend on them.

Greenland Ice Melt Today

National Snow & Ice Data Center 6/16/2019

Get daily satellite images and information about melting on the Greenland ice sheet. We post analysis periodically as conditions warrant.

Climate crisis: Alaska is melting and it’s likely to accelerate global heating

The Guardian 6/14/2019

The breakneck speed of Alaska’s rising heat is having cascading consequences, with vanishing sea ice exposing coastal communities to storms, altered wildlife and plant patterns that make it harder for people to find food. There is also a growing wildfire threat putting communities at risk.

Mass Die-Off of Puffins Raises More Fears About Arctic's Warming Climate

Inside Climate News 06/01/2019

The people of St. Paul Island, an Aleut community in the Bering Sea, are accustomed to seeing a lot of birds—millions stop there during their annual migrations. But they're not used to seeing them like this. What was happening in October 2016 was the beginning of a mass die-off. Thousands of tufted puffins were dying for no apparent reason, except for maybe one: changes in the ecosystem due to climate change.

‘Extraordinary thinning’ of ice sheets revealed deep inside Antarctica

The Guardian Thinning Ice Sheets 5/16/2019

The warming of the Southern Ocean is resulting in glaciers sliding into the sea increasingly rapidly, with ice now being lost five times faster than in the 1990s. The West Antarctic ice sheet was stable in 1992 but up to a quarter of its expanse is now thinning. More than 100 metres of ice thickness has been lost in the worst-hit places.

Daily Kos Greenland Heat Dome

Daily Kos Greenland Heat Dome 4/29/2019

Greenland’s Snow and Ice started melting in early April this year, weeks earlier than normal. Unprecedented early surface melting is well underway on the southeastern coastline now.

‘Archived’ heat has reached deep into the Arctic interior, researchers say

Yale News-Archived Heat in the Arctic

Arctic sea ice isn’t just threatened by the melting of ice around its edges, a new study has found: Warmer water that originated hundreds of miles away has penetrated deep into the interior of the Arctic.
That “archived” heat, currently trapped below the surface, has the potential to melt the region’s entire sea-ice pack if it reaches the surface, researchers say.

Scientists are keeping a close eye on the Beaufort Gyre

PRI- Beaufort Gyre

The Beaufort Gyre, an immense 60-mile-diameter pool of cold freshwater and sea ice, is “stuck” in a clockwise rotation that should have ended years ago. Its eventual reversal could send massive amounts of chilly water straight toward western Europe, plunging it into brutal winters and disrupting fisheries.

Warming of the interior Arctic Ocean linked to sea ice losses at the basin margins

Science Advances- Warming of the interior Arctic Ocean linked to sea ice losses at the basin margins

Arctic Ocean measurements reveal a near doubling of ocean heat content relative to the freezing temperature in the Beaufort Gyre halocline over the past three decades (1987–2017). This warming is linked to anomalous solar heating of surface waters in the northern Chukchi Sea, a main entryway for halocline waters to join the interior Beaufort Gyre. 

If We Lose the Ice we Lose the Entire Ecosystem

Paul Nicklen- If we lose the ice we lose the ecosystem 8/18

The photographer has been documenting life at the poles for years. He is determined to safeguard these fragile habitats

'We've never seen this': Massive Canadian Glaciers Shrinking Rapidly

The Guardian- Glacier Shrinkage-10/30/2018

Scientists in Canada have warned that massive glaciers in the Yukon territory are shrinking even faster than would be expected from a warming climate – and bringing dramatic changes to the region.