El Niño Is Underway, Satellite Observations Show: Difference between revisions
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|title=El Niño 2026: Official Status, Satellite Observations & Forecasts | |title=El Niño 2026: Official Status, Satellite Observations & Forecasts | ||
|description= | |description=El Niño 2026–27 forecasts and observations, with sources on food security, drought, flooding, hurricanes, ocean warming, and regional impacts. | ||
|keywords=El Niño 2026, NOAA El Niño declaration, NASA Sentinel-6, Pacific Kelvin waves, climate patterns, 2026 weather forecast, El Niño impacts, ocean temperatures | |keywords=El Niño 2026, NOAA El Niño declaration, NASA Sentinel-6, Pacific Kelvin waves, climate patterns, 2026 weather forecast, El Niño impacts, ocean temperatures | ||
|image=https:// | |image=https://wikidemocracy.us/images/7/75/2026-2027_El_Ni%C3%B1o_Climate_Forecast.png | ||
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[[File:2026-2027 El Niño Climate Forecast.png|thumb]] | |||
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[https://wikidemocracy.us/images/2/27/Record_Harvests_Won%E2%80%99t_Stop_El_Ni%C3%B1o_Famine.m4a Audio Oct 1] | |||
[https://wikidemocracy.us/images/7/7d/The_2026_Climate_Paradox.mp4 Video Oct 1] | |||
[https://wikidemocracy.us/images/4/44/2026_El_Ni%C3%B1o_Global_Impacts.mp4 Onsite Video July] | |||
[https://youtu.be/wNf5_y9N97o Youtube July] | |||
__NOTOC__ | __NOTOC__ | ||
''Updated October 1, 2026. Forecasts and observations are identified by their source dates.'' | |||
== Current Status and Forecasts == | == Current Status and Forecasts == | ||
* '''Official | ''Updated October 1, 2026.'' | ||
* '''Anticipated Strength:''' | |||
* '''Satellite Observations:''' | * '''Official Status:''' NOAA declared El Niño on June 11, 2026. Its September assessments describe an established and strengthening event, with ocean temperatures, winds, and rainfall patterns showing a coupled ocean-atmosphere response. | ||
* '''Anticipated Strength:''' NOAA's September 10 discussion gives a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño during Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026–27. It assigns a 75% probability that the October–December three-month Relative Oceanic Niño Index will reach at least +2.5°C, exceeding earlier events in that index's record beginning in 1950. These are forecasts of eventual strength, not confirmation that the seasonal peak has occurred. | |||
* '''Expected Duration:''' WMO's September assessment gives a near-100% probability of El Niño continuing through February 2027. NOAA's September outlook anticipates persistence through March–May 2027, followed by an increasing possibility of neutral conditions. | |||
* '''Satellite Observations:''' NASA's Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich and Sentinel-6B satellites are tracking sea surface height and the redistribution of ocean heat. NASA's PACE satellite has also detected changes in surface chlorophyll consistent with reduced nutrient availability in parts of the equatorial Pacific. | |||
* '''Regional Uncertainty:''' A very strong El Niño increases confidence in some broad climate patterns but does not guarantee particular local disasters. Regional outcomes also depend on other climate influences, existing environmental conditions, and individual weather systems. | |||
== Record-Breaking Ocean Warmth == | == Record-Breaking Ocean Warmth == | ||
* ''' | |||
* '''Compounding Factors:''' | * '''Ocean and Atmospheric Warmth:''' Copernicus reports that August 2026 tied July 2023 as the warmest month across all calendar months in its ERA5 dataset. Monthly sea surface temperatures outside the polar regions also tied their highest recorded value. | ||
* '''Compounding Factors:''' El Niño is developing against a background of long-term human-driven warming. Exceptional ocean warmth can contribute to atmospheric moisture, marine heat stress, and weather extremes, although individual events require separate analysis before their causes can be established. | |||
* '''Marine Food Webs:''' NASA's August report describes lower chlorophyll concentrations in the central equatorial Pacific compared with June 2025. Weaker upwelling during El Niño can reduce the nutrient supply supporting phytoplankton, with consequences for fish, seabirds, and marine mammals. | |||
== Projected Global Impacts == | == Projected Global Impacts == | ||
* ''' | === Food Security and Economic Risks === | ||
* ''' | |||
* ''' | * '''Projected Hunger:''' WFP's initial analysis estimates that El Niño-related shocks could push at least 49 million additional people into acute food insecurity by the end of 2027 across 45 vulnerable countries. This is a modeled projection, not an observed increase or a prediction that all affected people will experience famine. | ||
* '''Coastal | * '''Regions at Risk:''' WFP identifies particularly serious risks in Central America and southern Africa, with additional concerns in eastern Africa and South and Southeast Asia. Drought, flooding, disrupted harvests, and reduced agricultural income can compound existing poverty, conflict, and limited humanitarian assistance. | ||
* '''Tropical Cyclones:''' | * '''Food Prices and Access:''' FAO reports that international food commodity prices rose 1.9% in August 2026. El Niño-related production concerns contributed to pressure on vegetable oil and sugar prices. Higher transport and fertilizer costs can further constrain farmers and households. | ||
* '''Global Supply Context:''' FAO's September assessment forecasts lower cereal production than in 2025 but still the second-largest global harvest on record and relatively comfortable aggregate stocks. Severe regional hunger can therefore coexist with substantial worldwide food supplies when households lose income or cannot obtain affordable food. | |||
* '''Impacts Into 2027:''' Damage to planting, livestock, and harvest cycles can prolong food-security problems beyond El Niño's climatic peak. | |||
=== Drought and Water Security === | |||
* '''Southern Africa:''' WMO's October 1 outlook identifies increased drought risk through March 2027 in South Africa, southern and central Mozambique, Malawi, and southwestern Madagascar. Forecast heat and rainfall deficits could reduce crop productivity, pasture growth, and water availability. Conditions vary within countries, with wetter prospects in some northern areas. | |||
* '''Zimbabwe:''' FEWS NET anticipates an erratic start to the November–March rainy season, below-average rainfall, and above-average temperatures through at least January. Reduced pasture and water replenishment could add to agricultural and livestock pressures. | |||
* '''East Africa:''' FEWS NET reports severe rainfall deficits affecting Ethiopia's main growing areas and production concerns elsewhere in the region. Forecast wetter conditions later in the year may benefit some areas while arriving too late to reverse earlier crop damage. | |||
* '''South America:''' Assessments identify potential rainfall deficits in parts of Colombia, Venezuela, Brazil, and Bolivia. Rain-fed agriculture, including potatoes and quinoa in Bolivia's Altiplano, is vulnerable to disrupted seasonal rainfall. | |||
* '''Australia:''' The Bureau of Meteorology emphasizes that strong El Niño conditions do not imply uniform drought. Below-average rainfall prospects in parts of southeastern Australia coexist with wetter prospects elsewhere, while earlier rainfall and stored water influence vulnerability. | |||
=== Flooding, Storms, and Strong Winds === | |||
* '''East African Flood Risk:''' ICPAC forecasts enhanced October–December rainfall in parts of Ethiopia, Somalia, and Kenya, influenced by El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole. Flooding could damage crops and infrastructure, displace communities, and disrupt access to markets and services. | |||
* '''Somalia:''' IPC projects 5.4 million people facing Crisis or worse acute food insecurity during October–December 2026. Under a plausible worst-case scenario involving more severe flooding and displacement, internally displaced people in Baidoa face a risk of Famine. This is a conditional warning, not a declaration that famine is occurring. | |||
* '''United States Winter Outlook:''' NOAA's September seasonal outlook favors wetter-than-normal conditions across much of the southern United States and portions of the Atlantic coast, with increased winter precipitation probabilities in California. These outlooks describe seasonal totals rather than the timing or severity of individual storms. | |||
* '''California Preparedness:''' California's September 21 emergency declaration mobilizes resources ahead of potential heavy rain, strong winds, flooding, landslides, debris flows, large waves, and coastal erosion. The action supports preparedness rather than establishing that severe impacts will occur everywhere. | |||
* '''New Zealand Winds:''' Earth Sciences New Zealand forecasts periods of unusually windy spring weather, prevailing westerly airflow, and greater temperature variability. Heavy rain is more likely in southern and western areas, while other regions face increased drying. | |||
=== Coastal and Marine Risks === | |||
* '''Coastal Flooding:''' Temporarily elevated sea levels can combine with high tides, storm surge, and large waves to increase flooding and erosion. Coastal impacts may occur even without exceptional rainfall at the affected location. | |||
* '''Marine Ecosystems:''' Warm waters and reduced upwelling can disrupt nutrient supplies and marine food webs. Marine heatwaves also threaten fisheries and other ocean ecosystems, although their development reflects multiple interacting influences. | |||
* '''Interacting Hazards:''' Coastal communities may experience overlapping effects from erosion, wave damage, flooding, and disrupted transport. The severity depends on local exposure and the timing of tides and storms. | |||
=== Tropical Cyclones === | |||
* '''Atlantic Basin:''' NOAA's August update favors below-normal hurricane activity, partly because El Niño increases vertical wind shear that can inhibit storm formation and intensification. Lower seasonal activity does not eliminate the possibility of a damaging landfall. | |||
* '''Eastern and Central Pacific:''' NOAA expects above-normal seasonal activity in both basins. These are forecasts of overall basin activity, not predictions of where individual hurricanes will strike. | |||
* '''South-West Indian Ocean:''' WMO's October 1 assessment anticipates below-normal basin-wide cyclone activity and a possible southward shift in tracks. Local risks remain, including near-normal cyclone risk for the Mascarene Islands. | |||
== Scientific and Historical Context == | == Scientific and Historical Context == | ||
* '''Climate Change | |||
* '''Recent ENSO Cycle:''' | * '''El Niño and Climate Change:''' El Niño is a naturally recurring ocean-atmosphere pattern operating within a warming climate. Human-driven warming can intensify background heat and some associated hazards, while the influence on specific regional outcomes varies. | ||
* '''Other Climate Drivers:''' The Indian Ocean Dipole, surrounding ocean temperatures, atmospheric circulation, and shorter-term weather variability can reinforce or counteract typical El Niño effects. A single event can contribute to drought in one region and excessive rainfall in another. | |||
* '''Recent ENSO Cycle:''' The historical sources cover the 2023–24 El Niño, the end of a short-lived La Niña in April 2025, renewed La Niña observations later in 2025, and the development of El Niño in 2026. | |||
* '''Interpreting the Evidence:''' Observed conditions, seasonal forecasts, modeled humanitarian risks, and preparedness announcements serve different purposes. Their dates and geographic scope should remain explicit, especially when using monitoring pages that are updated regularly. | |||
__TOC__ | __TOC__ | ||
===El Niño Development, Forecasts, and Official Updates=== | |||
''Sources are sorted newest first within each section. Entries with only a month or year follow the more precisely dated entries in that period; undated resources appear last. Rolling pages may change after the edition described here.'' | |||
=== El Niño Development, Forecasts, and Official Updates === | |||
=====ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions===== | =====ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions===== | ||
[https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf Article link] | NOAA Climate Prediction Center | NOAA | | [https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf Article link] | NOAA Climate Prediction Center | NOAA | September 28, 2026 | ||
NOAA's weekly ENSO | NOAA's weekly update documents continuing El Niño conditions through observations of Pacific sea surface temperatures, subsurface heat, winds, and atmospheric circulation. It retains the September outlook showing a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026–27. | ||
=====September 2026 ENSO Forecast: Quick Look and Technical Update===== | |||
[https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/ Article link] | International Research Institute for Climate and Society | Columbia Climate School | September 21, 2026 | |||
IRI reports that all 22 participating forecast models project very strong El Niño conditions through winter 2026–27. The assessment describes substantial subsurface ocean warmth and an established atmospheric response, while noting that models differ on the eventual peak. | |||
=====Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion===== | |||
[https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml Article link] | NOAA Climate Prediction Center | NOAA | September 10, 2026 | |||
NOAA forecasts a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño during fall and winter 2026–27. For October–December, it assigns a 75% probability to a three-month Relative Oceanic Niño Index of at least +2.5°C, which would exceed earlier events in its record beginning in 1950. These are forecasts rather than confirmation of the event's eventual peak. | |||
=====El Niño Set to Become Very Strong, Raising Risks of Extreme Weather Into 2027===== | |||
[https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/el-nino-set-become-very-strong-raising-risks-of-extreme-weather-2027 Article link] | World Meteorological Organization | WMO | September 3, 2026 | |||
WMO reports that El Niño is firmly established, with a near-100% forecast probability of continuing through February 2027. It warns of changing rainfall patterns, drought, flooding, and extreme heat, while emphasizing that regional impacts also depend on season, location, and other climate drivers, including the Indian Ocean Dipole. | |||
=====Strong El Niño Expected to Intensify===== | |||
[https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/strong-el-nino-expected-intensify Article link] | World Meteorological Organization | WMO | July 31, 2026 | |||
WMO's August–October outlook anticipated further El Niño strengthening alongside exceptionally warm oceans and a developing positive Indian Ocean Dipole. The report explains how these combined influences can alter regional rainfall and temperature risks and calls for early preparation in agriculture, health, and disaster management. | |||
=====El Niño Is Underway, Satellite Observations Show===== | |||
[https://phys.org/news/2026-06-el-nio-underway-satellite.html Article link] | NASA | Phys.org | June 21, 2026 | |||
NASA satellite observations show that El Niño conditions are developing, with sea-surface-height patterns indicating changes in the tropical Pacific. | |||
=====El Niño Is Underway===== | |||
[https://science.nasa.gov/earth/earth-observatory/el-nino-is-underway/ Article link] | NASA Earth Observatory | NASA | June 18, 2026 | |||
NASA Earth Observatory reports that Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich detected higher-than-normal sea surfaces in the central and eastern Pacific as El Niño strengthened. | |||
=====Super El Niños May Lose Their Punch in a Warming World===== | =====Super El Niños May Lose Their Punch in a Warming World===== | ||
[https://phys.org/news/2026-06-super-el-nios-world.html Article link] | Geophysical Research Letters | Phys.org | June 16, 2026 | [https://phys.org/news/2026-06-super-el-nios-world.html Article link] | Geophysical Research Letters | Phys.org | June 16, 2026 | ||
Researchers modeled how intense eastern Pacific El Niño events may change as the global climate warms. | Researchers modeled how intense eastern Pacific El Niño events may change as the global climate warms. | ||
=====El Niño Arrives and Could Rank Among Strongest Events===== | |||
[https://phys.org/news/2026-06-el-nio-strongest-events.html Article link] | AFP | Phys.org | June 13, 2026 | |||
Scientists warned that the newly declared El Niño could become very strong, with potential global effects on drought, rainfall, and heat. | |||
=====El Niño Forms, Expected to Strengthen, Say NOAA Forecasters===== | =====El Niño Forms, Expected to Strengthen, Say NOAA Forecasters===== | ||
| Line 49: | Line 135: | ||
NOAA declared that El Niño had formed and forecast that the event could strengthen into a moderate or strong phase by fall and winter. | NOAA declared that El Niño had formed and forecast that the event could strengthen into a moderate or strong phase by fall and winter. | ||
===== | =====El Niño Is Here and Scientists Fear It’ll Be Big, Bad and Costly===== | ||
[https:// | [https://phys.org/news/2026-06-el-nino-scientists-itll-big.html Article link] | Associated Press | Phys.org | June 11, 2026 | ||
Scientists cautioned that the 2026 El Niño could become one of the strongest on record and bring major economic and humanitarian impacts. | |||
=====Seasonal Forecasts Point Toward Large El Niño Event===== | =====Seasonal Forecasts Point Toward Large El Niño Event===== | ||
[https://climate.copernicus.eu/seasonal-forecasts Article link] | Copernicus Climate Change Service | Copernicus | June 10, 2026 | [https://climate.copernicus.eu/seasonal-forecasts Article link] | Copernicus Climate Change Service | Copernicus | June 10, 2026 | ||
Copernicus seasonal forecasts show a strong signal for a large El Niño event developing later in 2026. | Copernicus seasonal forecasts show a strong signal for a large El Niño event developing later in 2026. | ||
=====Odds Climb for Record El Niño as Models Predict Strong Warming===== | |||
[https://phys.org/news/2026-06-odds-climb-el-nio-25c.html Article link] | AFP | Phys.org | June 10, 2026 | |||
Climate model forecasts raised the odds of a major El Niño event, with scientists warning of possible impacts on heat, rainfall, drought, and food systems. | |||
=====What Is Godzilla El Niño?===== | =====What Is Godzilla El Niño?===== | ||
| Line 64: | Line 154: | ||
[https://phys.org/news/2026-06-strong-el-nio-approaching.html Article link] | The Conversation | Phys.org | June 3, 2026 | [https://phys.org/news/2026-06-strong-el-nio-approaching.html Article link] | The Conversation | Phys.org | June 3, 2026 | ||
Researchers describe what a very strong El Niño could mean for drought, rainfall, heat, and regional climate impacts around the world. | Researchers describe what a very strong El Niño could mean for drought, rainfall, heat, and regional climate impacts around the world. | ||
=====Official NOAA CPC ENSO Probabilities===== | |||
[https://cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/probabilities/ Article link] | NOAA Climate Prediction Center | NOAA | June 2026 | |||
NOAA's probability outlook shows El Niño strongly favored through winter, based on climate models, observations, and expert assessment. | |||
=====Official NOAA CPC ENSO Strength Probabilities===== | |||
[https://cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/strengths/ Article link] | NOAA Climate Prediction Center | NOAA | June 2026 | |||
NOAA's ENSO strength outlook estimates the chances of weak, moderate, strong, and very strong El Niño conditions across upcoming seasons. | |||
=====Experimental Seasonal Forecasts===== | |||
[https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/experimental-seasonal-forecasts/ Article link] | NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory | NOAA | June 2026 | |||
NOAA GFDL's SPEAR forecast system shows model projections for ENSO development, including uncertainty in future El Niño strength. | |||
=====Warming El Niño Set to Return in Mid-2026===== | =====Warming El Niño Set to Return in Mid-2026===== | ||
| Line 88: | Line 190: | ||
[https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.14773 Article link] | Josef Ludescher et al. | arXiv | February 16, 2026 | [https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.14773 Article link] | Josef Ludescher et al. | arXiv | February 16, 2026 | ||
Researchers tested climate-network and complexity methods for forecasting the 2026 ENSO state, showing how difficult early El Niño prediction can be. | Researchers tested climate-network and complexity methods for forecasting the 2026 ENSO state, showing how difficult early El Niño prediction can be. | ||
=====Are We Heading Toward a Super El Niño in 2026?===== | =====Are We Heading Toward a Super El Niño in 2026?===== | ||
| Line 137: | Line 203: | ||
NOAA tracks weekly sea surface temperature, wind, cloud, and subsurface ocean conditions across the tropical Pacific. | NOAA tracks weekly sea surface temperature, wind, cloud, and subsurface ocean conditions across the tropical Pacific. | ||
===Ocean Heat, Satellites, Sea Level, and Marine Ecosystems=== | === Ocean Heat, Satellites, Sea Level, and Marine Ecosystems === | ||
=====August Was the World's Joint Hottest Month on Record, Pushing Global Temperatures Back Above 1.5°C Above Pre-Industrial Levels===== | |||
[https://climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-august-was-worlds-joint-hottest-month-record-pushing-global-temperatures-back-above Article link] | Copernicus Climate Change Service | Copernicus / ECMWF | September 10, 2026 | |||
Copernicus reports that August 2026 tied July 2023 as the warmest month across all calendar months in its ERA5 dataset. Average sea surface temperatures outside the polar regions also tied their highest monthly value. The report links exceptional ocean warmth to long-term global heating and rapidly warming equatorial Pacific waters associated with El Niño. | |||
=====How 2 US, European Satellites Are Studying Hurricanes During El Niño===== | |||
[https://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/news/1738/how-2-us-european-satellites-are-studying-hurricanes-during-el-nino/ Article link] | NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory | NASA/JPL | September 9, 2026 | |||
NASA explains how Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich and Sentinel-6B are measuring sea surface height during the developing El Niño. Their observations help scientists track the redistribution of ocean heat and improve the information available for hurricane forecasting, including research on rapid intensification. | |||
=====El Niño Warming Pattern in the Pacific Ocean===== | |||
[https://eu-space.europa.eu/components/earth-observation-copernicus/image-of-the-day/el-nino-warming-pattern-pacific-ocean Article link] | European Union / Copernicus Marine Service | EU Space | August 26, 2026 | |||
A visualization using August 25 observations shows a distinct band of unusually warm surface water across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. The image provides an updated illustration of the event's ocean-temperature pattern and a useful visual companion to earlier satellite observations. | |||
=====El Niño Alters Marine Life in the Pacific===== | |||
[https://science.nasa.gov/earth/earth-observatory/el-nino-alters-marine-life-in-the-pacific/ Article link] | Lindsey Doermann | NASA Earth Observatory | August 10, 2026 | |||
NASA's PACE satellite observations reveal lower chlorophyll concentrations in the central equatorial Pacific in June 2026 compared with June 2025. Scientists explain how weakened upwelling reduces nutrient supplies and phytoplankton growth during El Niño, with consequences for marine food webs, fisheries, seabirds, and marine mammals. | |||
=====Ocean Surface Temperatures Hit Record High for June===== | =====Ocean Surface Temperatures Hit Record High for June===== | ||
| Line 146: | Line 228: | ||
[https://www.ft.com/content/857d4917-b04b-4349-b90a-7f3cf7aabd3f Article link] | Financial Times | Financial Times | July 1, 2026 | [https://www.ft.com/content/857d4917-b04b-4349-b90a-7f3cf7aabd3f Article link] | Financial Times | Financial Times | July 1, 2026 | ||
Global sea temperatures surged to record June levels, raising concern that El Niño and long-term ocean warming may amplify storms, heat waves, and climate instability. | Global sea temperatures surged to record June levels, raising concern that El Niño and long-term ocean warming may amplify storms, heat waves, and climate instability. | ||
=====Daily Global Sea Surface Temperatures Break Records===== | |||
[https://climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-marine-and-copernicus-climate-change-daily-global-sea-surface-temperatures-break-records Article link] | Copernicus Climate Change Service | Copernicus | July 2026 | |||
Copernicus reports record daily sea surface temperatures and warns that El Niño and ocean heat could contribute to further climate extremes. | |||
=====Ocean Health Bulletin: El Niño June 2026===== | =====Ocean Health Bulletin: El Niño June 2026===== | ||
[https://marine.copernicus.eu/bulletin/ocean-health-bulletin-el-nino-june-2026 Article link] | Copernicus Marine Service | Copernicus | June 22, 2026 | [https://marine.copernicus.eu/bulletin/ocean-health-bulletin-el-nino-june-2026 Article link] | Copernicus Marine Service | Copernicus | June 22, 2026 | ||
Copernicus Marine reports above-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific as climate scientists confirm El Niño conditions. | Copernicus Marine reports above-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific as climate scientists confirm El Niño conditions. | ||
=====El Niño Is Back, and Ocean Temperatures Are Already Near Record Highs===== | =====El Niño Is Back, and Ocean Temperatures Are Already Near Record Highs===== | ||
| Line 182: | Line 264: | ||
[https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/images/pia26710-international-sea-level-satellite-observes-el-nino-precursor/ Article link] | Jet Propulsion Laboratory | NASA/JPL | June 2, 2026 | [https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/images/pia26710-international-sea-level-satellite-observes-el-nino-precursor/ Article link] | Jet Propulsion Laboratory | NASA/JPL | June 2, 2026 | ||
JPL imagery shows a warm Kelvin wave moving eastward across the Pacific, a classic oceanic precursor to El Niño development. | JPL imagery shows a warm Kelvin wave moving eastward across the Pacific, a classic oceanic precursor to El Niño development. | ||
=====NASA-European Sea Level Mission Homes in on El Niño===== | =====NASA-European Sea Level Mission Homes in on El Niño===== | ||
| Line 198: | Line 276: | ||
[https://phys.org/news/2026-05-scientists-potential-super-el-nino.html Article link] | AFP | Phys.org | May 22, 2026 | [https://phys.org/news/2026-05-scientists-potential-super-el-nino.html Article link] | AFP | Phys.org | May 22, 2026 | ||
Scientists discuss the evidence for a possible strong El Niño, including rising Pacific sea temperatures and a large reservoir of subsurface heat. | Scientists discuss the evidence for a possible strong El Niño, including rising Pacific sea temperatures and a large reservoir of subsurface heat. | ||
=====Second-Highest Sea Surface Temperatures Recorded During Third-Warmest April Globally===== | =====Second-Highest Sea Surface Temperatures Recorded During Third-Warmest April Globally===== | ||
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NASA analysis found that La Niña conditions affected rainfall and temporarily slowed global mean sea level rise in 2025. | NASA analysis found that La Niña conditions affected rainfall and temporarily slowed global mean sea level rise in 2025. | ||
===== | =====El Niño and Ocean Heat Content===== | ||
[https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/global-ocean-heat-content/ Article link] | NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information | NOAA | 2026 | |||
NOAA ocean heat content data help researchers track subsurface warming that can fuel El Niño development and marine heatwaves. | |||
[https:// | |||
NOAA | |||
=====Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich Mission===== | =====Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich Mission===== | ||
[https://www.nasa.gov/mission/sentinel-6-michael-freilich/ Article link] | NASA | NASA | | [https://www.nasa.gov/mission/sentinel-6-michael-freilich/ Article link] | NASA | NASA | Undated | ||
NASA describes the Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich satellite mission, which measures sea surface height and helps monitor El Niño and global sea level. | NASA describes the Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich satellite mission, which measures sea surface height and helps monitor El Niño and global sea level. | ||
=====Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich Stories===== | =====Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich Stories===== | ||
[https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/sentinel-6-michael-freilich/ Article link] | Jet Propulsion Laboratory | NASA/JPL | | [https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/sentinel-6-michael-freilich/ Article link] | Jet Propulsion Laboratory | NASA/JPL | Undated | ||
JPL provides mission information and updates on the satellite used to observe sea level patterns linked to El Niño development. | JPL provides mission information and updates on the satellite used to observe sea level patterns linked to El Niño development. | ||
=====El Niño and Subsurface Pacific Heat===== | =====El Niño and Subsurface Pacific Heat===== | ||
[https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/ Article link] | NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory | NOAA | | [https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/ Article link] | NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory | NOAA | Undated | ||
NOAA's Tropical Atmosphere Ocean array measures sea temperature, winds, and subsurface heat across the equatorial Pacific, supporting ENSO monitoring. | NOAA's Tropical Atmosphere Ocean array measures sea temperature, winds, and subsurface heat across the equatorial Pacific, supporting ENSO monitoring. | ||
=====TAO/TRITON Tropical Pacific Observing System===== | =====TAO/TRITON Tropical Pacific Observing System===== | ||
[https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/gtmba/ Article link] | NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory | NOAA | | [https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/gtmba/ Article link] | NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory | NOAA | Undated | ||
NOAA's tropical moored buoy system provides ocean-atmosphere measurements central to detecting El Niño and La Niña changes. | NOAA's tropical moored buoy system provides ocean-atmosphere measurements central to detecting El Niño and La Niña changes. | ||
===Food Security, | === Food Security, Crop Production, and Economic Risks === | ||
=====How Colliding Crises Are Shaping Somalia's Hunger Emergency===== | |||
[https://www.wfp.org/stories/how-colliding-crises-are-shaping-somalias-hunger-emergency Article link] | Sylvie Njobati, Fatima Hirsi and Elizabeth Bryant | World Food Programme | September 29, 2026 | |||
WFP explains how expected El Niño-related flooding could compound conflict, displacement, earlier drought, and declining humanitarian funding. It describes preparations for the October–December rainy season and warns that damage to farming and grazing areas could worsen hunger while funding shortages reduce food assistance and nutrition treatment. | |||
=====Somalia: Acute Food Insecurity Situation for July–September 2026 and Projection for October–December 2026===== | |||
[https://www.ipcinfo.org/ipc-country-analysis/details-map/en/c/1165451/?iso3=SOM Article link] | Integrated Food Security Phase Classification | IPC | September 23, 2026 | |||
IPC projects that 5.4 million people will face Crisis or worse acute food insecurity during October–December 2026, including approximately 1.5 million in Emergency. Expected flooding associated with El Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole is a major driver. Under a plausible worst-case scenario of more severe flooding and displacement, internally displaced people in Baidoa face a risk of Famine; this is a conditional warning, not a declaration that famine is occurring. | |||
=====Hunger and Malnutrition Crises Persist in Somalia as Projected Floods and Funding Shortfalls Threaten Vulnerable Populations===== | |||
[https://www.wfp.org/news/hunger-and-malnutrition-crises-persist-somalia-projected-floods-and-funding-shortfalls Article link] | Federal Government of Somalia and United Nations | World Food Programme | September 23, 2026 | |||
This joint warning explains the humanitarian implications of the September IPC assessment. It estimates that 1.92 million children under five will require acute-malnutrition treatment between July 2026 and June 2027. Anticipated flooding could disrupt livelihoods, displace households, and restrict access to health and nutrition services, while inadequate funding limits the response. | |||
=====El Niño, Shipping Disruptions and Food Aid Funding Cuts Collide to Deepen Dire Global Hunger Crisis===== | |||
[https://www.rescue.org/press-release/el-nino-shipping-disruptions-and-food-aid-funding-cuts-collide-deepen-dire-global Article link] | International Rescue Committee | IRC | September 18, 2026 | |||
IRC warns that drought and flooding could combine with disrupted shipping, rising food and fertilizer costs, and reduced humanitarian funding to worsen hunger. Its analysis indicates that poor rains could push an additional 700,000 people in El Salvador into hunger. The organization calls for early assistance in countries including Guatemala, El Salvador, Somalia, and Kenya. | |||
=====As a Mighty El Niño Deepens Global Hunger, Early Action Pays Off===== | |||
[https://www.wfp.org/stories/mighty-el-nino-deepens-global-hunger-early-action-pays Article link] | Anam Abbas et al. | World Food Programme | September 11, 2026 | |||
WFP describes early assistance and preparedness measures in countries including South Sudan, Chad, Madagascar, Malawi, and Guatemala. Examples include cash transfers, agricultural support, early-warning information, and contingency planning intended to reduce losses before droughts, floods, and disrupted harvests deepen food insecurity. | |||
=====El Niño Impacts Leads to Poor Production Across East Africa's High Potential Zones===== | |||
[https://fews.net/east-africa/seasonal-monitor/september-2026 Article link] | Famine Early Warning Systems Network | FEWS NET | September 11, 2026 | |||
FEWS NET anticipates poor harvests in several important East African agricultural areas following prolonged dry spells and rainfall deficits. It identifies production concerns in Kenya, Uganda, Sudan, South Sudan, and Ethiopia. Wetter conditions later in the year could benefit some crops but also increase flooding, waterlogging, and disruption to planting and harvesting. | |||
=====Supply Concerns Drive FAO Food Price Index Higher in August===== | |||
[https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/supply-concerns-drive-fao-food-price-index-higher/en Article link] | Food and Agriculture Organization | FAO | September 4, 2026 | |||
FAO reports that international food commodity prices rose 1.9% in August. El Niño-related production concerns contributed to pressure on vegetable oil and sugar prices. It forecasts lower global rice output, partly because of El Niño-associated weather, but still expects historically substantial cereal production and stocks. The report provides evidence of market pressures while distinguishing regional food insecurity from aggregate global supply. | |||
=====FAO GIEWS Country Brief: Angola===== | |||
[https://cb.apps.fao.org/country.jsp?code=AGO Article link] | Global Information and Early Warning System on Food and Agriculture | FAO | September 3, 2026 | |||
FAO warns that reduced harvests, elevated food costs, and weaker agricultural incomes could aggravate food insecurity in late 2026 and early 2027. Forecasts indicate an increased likelihood of below-average rainfall during the first half of the 2026–27 cropping season, linked to El Niño. This creates a risk of further agricultural stress following an already difficult season. This country-brief URL is updated periodically. | |||
=====FAO GIEWS Country Brief: Ecuador===== | |||
[https://cb.apps.fao.org/country.jsp?code=ECU Article link] | Global Information and Early Warning System on Food and Agriculture | FAO | September 2, 2026 | |||
FAO anticipates below-average maize and paddy production after dry weather and constraints on planting. Looking ahead, above-average rainfall associated with El Niño raises the risk of flooding and river overflows affecting coastal maize and rice areas during September–December. Cereal import requirements are forecast to remain above average in 2026–27. This country-brief URL is updated periodically. | |||
=====World Food Programme Ramps Up Preparedness and Response Plans as El Niño Threatens to Push Tens of Millions Into Acute Hunger===== | |||
[https://www.wfp.org/news/world-food-programme-ramps-preparedness-and-response-plans-el-nino-threatens-push-tens Article link] | World Food Programme | WFP | August 5, 2026 | |||
WFP's initial analysis across 45 vulnerable countries estimates that El Niño-related shocks could push at least 49 million additional people into acute food insecurity by the end of 2027. This is a modeled risk estimate, not an observed hunger count. The assessment highlights how disrupted planting and harvest cycles can prolong humanitarian impacts beyond the event's climatic peak. | |||
=====India Warns of Below-Average July Monsoon Rains After Dry June===== | =====India Warns of Below-Average July Monsoon Rains After Dry June===== | ||
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[https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/el-ni%C3%B1o-is-coming.-here-is-where-the-risks-to-agriculture-are-highest/en Article link] | FAO | Food and Agriculture Organization | June 22, 2026 | [https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/el-ni%C3%B1o-is-coming.-here-is-where-the-risks-to-agriculture-are-highest/en Article link] | FAO | Food and Agriculture Organization | June 22, 2026 | ||
FAO maps regions where El Niño-linked drought could threaten crops and pasturelands, highlighting risks to food systems already stressed by climate shocks. | FAO maps regions where El Niño-linked drought could threaten crops and pasturelands, highlighting risks to food systems already stressed by climate shocks. | ||
=====Explainer: Why a Strong El Niño Leaves Tropical Commodities Exposed===== | |||
[https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/why-strong-el-nio-leaves-tropical-commodities-acutely-exposed-2026-06-17/ Article link] | Reuters | Reuters | June 18, 2026 | |||
Reuters explains why crops such as coffee, cocoa, sugar, and palm oil are vulnerable to rainfall shifts linked to strong El Niño events. | |||
=====Emerging 2026 El Niño: Potential Implications for Agriculture and Food Security===== | =====Emerging 2026 El Niño: Potential Implications for Agriculture and Food Security===== | ||
[https://reliefweb.int/report/world/emerging-2026-el-nino-potential-implications-agriculture-food-security-and-anticipatory-action-briefing-note-published-03-june-2026-analysis-based-information-available-31-may-2026 Article link] | ReliefWeb | ReliefWeb | June 18, 2026 | [https://reliefweb.int/report/world/emerging-2026-el-nino-potential-implications-agriculture-food-security-and-anticipatory-action-briefing-note-published-03-june-2026-analysis-based-information-available-31-may-2026 Article link] | ReliefWeb | ReliefWeb | June 18, 2026 | ||
Humanitarian agencies assessed how the emerging 2026 El Niño could affect crops, livestock, food security, and anticipatory action planning. | Humanitarian agencies assessed how the emerging 2026 El Niño could affect crops, livestock, food security, and anticipatory action planning. | ||
=====Potentially Historic El Niño to Come, Analysis Shows Humanitarian Toll===== | =====Potentially Historic El Niño to Come, Analysis Shows Humanitarian Toll===== | ||
[https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/jrc-news-and-updates/potentially-historic-el-nino-come-analysis-shows-humanitarian-toll-2026-06-15_en Article link] | Joint Research Centre | European Commission | June 15, 2026 | [https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/jrc-news-and-updates/potentially-historic-el-nino-come-analysis-shows-humanitarian-toll-2026-06-15_en Article link] | Joint Research Centre | European Commission | June 15, 2026 | ||
European analysts warn that a potentially historic El Niño could worsen drought, flood, heat, and storm conditions in vulnerable regions. | European analysts warn that a potentially historic El Niño could worsen drought, flood, heat, and storm conditions in vulnerable regions. | ||
=====A Strong El Niño May Be Imminent. Climate Change Will Make Its Effects Worse===== | |||
[https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/cop/strong-el-nino-may-be-imminent-climate-change-will-make-its-effects-worse-2026-06-02/ Article link] | Reuters | Reuters | June 3, 2026 | |||
Reuters explains how a developing El Niño could combine with climate change to raise global temperatures and worsen weather extremes. | |||
=====UN Warns World to Prepare for El Niño Extreme Weather===== | =====UN Warns World to Prepare for El Niño Extreme Weather===== | ||
[https://phys.org/news/2026-06-world-el-nino-extreme-weather.html Article link] | AFP | Phys.org | June 2, 2026 | [https://phys.org/news/2026-06-world-el-nino-extreme-weather.html Article link] | AFP | Phys.org | June 2, 2026 | ||
The World Meteorological Organization warned that El Niño could increase risks of heat waves, drought, heavy rainfall, and other weather extremes. | The World Meteorological Organization warned that El Niño could increase risks of heat waves, drought, heavy rainfall, and other weather extremes. | ||
=====El Niño May Return in 2026 and Make Planet Even Hotter===== | =====El Niño May Return in 2026 and Make Planet Even Hotter===== | ||
| Line 296: | Line 402: | ||
[https://wikifarmer.com/library/en/article/el-nino-2026-crops-food-prices Article link] | Wikifarmer | Wikifarmer | 2026 | [https://wikifarmer.com/library/en/article/el-nino-2026-crops-food-prices Article link] | Wikifarmer | Wikifarmer | 2026 | ||
Article explains how El Niño can affect rainfall, crops, livestock, and food prices in major agricultural regions. | Article explains how El Niño can affect rainfall, crops, livestock, and food prices in major agricultural regions. | ||
=====El Niño and Disaster Preparedness===== | =====El Niño and Disaster Preparedness===== | ||
| Line 308: | Line 410: | ||
[https://www.anticipation-hub.org/ Article link] | Anticipation Hub | Anticipation Hub | 2026 | [https://www.anticipation-hub.org/ Article link] | Anticipation Hub | Anticipation Hub | 2026 | ||
Anticipation Hub collects early action resources for climate shocks, including El Niño-related drought, floods, and food security crises. | Anticipation Hub collects early action resources for climate shocks, including El Niño-related drought, floods, and food security crises. | ||
=====El Niño and Humanitarian Early Warning===== | =====El Niño and Humanitarian Early Warning===== | ||
[https://fews.net/ Article link] | Famine Early Warning Systems Network | FEWS NET | 2026 | [https://fews.net/ Article link] | Famine Early Warning Systems Network | FEWS NET | 2026 | ||
FEWS NET monitors food security risks that can worsen during El Niño-related droughts, floods, and crop failures. | FEWS NET monitors food security risks that can worsen during El Niño-related droughts, floods, and crop failures. | ||
=====El Niño and Pacific Island Climate Impacts===== | =====El Niño and Pacific Island Climate Impacts===== | ||
| Line 348: | Line 430: | ||
[https://www.senamhi.gob.pe/ Article link] | SENAMHI | Government of Peru | 2026 | [https://www.senamhi.gob.pe/ Article link] | SENAMHI | Government of Peru | 2026 | ||
Peru's weather and hydrology service monitors coastal rainfall, temperature, and flood risks that can be affected by eastern Pacific El Niño warming. | Peru's weather and hydrology service monitors coastal rainfall, temperature, and flood risks that can be affected by eastern Pacific El Niño warming. | ||
=====El Niño and Global Food Security===== | |||
[https://www.fao.org/el-nino/en/ Article link] | Food and Agriculture Organization | FAO | Undated | |||
FAO provides resources on how El Niño affects crops, livestock, fisheries, food prices, and early warning systems. | |||
=====El Niño and Public Health Risks===== | |||
[https://www.who.int/health-topics/el-nino Article link] | World Health Organization | WHO | Undated | |||
WHO summarizes health risks linked to El Niño, including heat stress, infectious disease, food insecurity, and disaster impacts. | |||
=====El Niño and Heat Risk===== | |||
[https://www.weather.gov/safety/heat Article link] | National Weather Service | NOAA | Undated | |||
NOAA provides heat safety guidance for periods when El Niño and long-term warming can increase the odds of extreme heat in some regions. | |||
=====El Niño and Global Precipitation Patterns===== | =====El Niño and Global Precipitation Patterns===== | ||
[https://gpm.nasa.gov/ Article link] | NASA Global Precipitation Measurement Mission | NASA | | [https://gpm.nasa.gov/ Article link] | NASA Global Precipitation Measurement Mission | NASA | Undated | ||
NASA's precipitation mission helps track rainfall changes that may be influenced by El Niño-driven shifts in atmospheric circulation. | NASA's precipitation mission helps track rainfall changes that may be influenced by El Niño-driven shifts in atmospheric circulation. | ||
===Weather, Climate, Health, and Hazard Impacts=== | === Flooding, Coastal Hazards, Hurricanes, and Strong Winds === | ||
=====Governor Newsom Proclaims State of Emergency to Bolster Statewide El Niño Preparedness, Protect California===== | |||
[https://www.gov.ca.gov/2026/09/21/governor-newsom-proclaims-state-of-emergency-to-bolster-statewide-el-nino-preparedness-protect-california/ Article link] | Office of Governor Gavin Newsom | State of California | September 21, 2026 | |||
California's preparedness announcement identifies potential hazards from repeated heavy rainfall, strong winds, mountain snow, flooding, landslides, debris flows, and large coastal waves during the 2026–27 winter. It describes advance positioning of flood-response supplies and equipment. The declaration is a precautionary action addressing possible impacts, rather than a prediction that every location will experience severe flooding. | |||
=====Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Seasonal Outlooks===== | |||
[https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/fxus05.html Article link] | Anthony Artusa | NOAA Climate Prediction Center | September 17, 2026 | |||
NOAA favors wetter-than-normal conditions across much of the southern United States and along portions of the Atlantic coast during fall and winter, associated with the subtropical jet stream and storm track. Winter precipitation probabilities also favor wetter conditions in California. These seasonal rainfall probabilities provide context for flood preparedness but do not forecast individual floods, storm dates, or damaging wind speeds. This URL is updated monthly. | |||
=====Prepare Your Coastal Property for El Niño===== | |||
[https://coastal.ca.gov/climate/extreme-weather/el-nino/ Article link] | California Coastal Commission | State of California | Updated September 11, 2026 | |||
The Commission discusses the combined coastal hazards of elevated sea levels, high tides, storm surge, large waves, and erosion during the 2026–27 El Niño. It explains why coastal properties can face greater flooding and wave damage when several factors coincide, and provides preparedness resources for communities, shoreline properties, and bluff-top areas. | |||
=====Seasonal Climate Outlook: September–November 2026===== | |||
[https://niwa.co.nz/climate-and-weather/seasonal-climate-outlook/seasonal-climate-outlook-september-november-2026 Article link] | Earth Sciences New Zealand | Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA | September 2, 2026 | |||
New Zealand's outlook anticipates prevailing westerly airflow, periods of unusually windy weather, and increased temperature variability as El Niño influences spring conditions. Heavy rainfall is more likely in southern and western areas, with above-normal seasonal rainfall strongly favored for the west of the South Island. Other regions face reduced rainfall and increased drying, illustrating how wind and rainfall hazards vary within the same country. | |||
=====The Greater Horn of Africa Is Expected to Experience a Wetter-Than-Normal October–December 2026 Season as El Niño Strengthens===== | |||
[https://www.icpac.net/news/the-greater-horn-of-africa-is-expected-to-experience-a-wetter-than-normal-october-december-ond-2026-season-as-el-ni%C3%B1o-strengthens/ Article link] | IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre | ICPAC | August 18, 2026 | |||
ICPAC forecasts enhanced October–December rainfall associated with El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole. It assigns a 90% probability of wetter-than-normal conditions to southern Ethiopia, central and southern Somalia, and northeastern Kenya. This regional rainfall outlook supports flood preparedness, but the probability of above-normal rainfall should not be interpreted as an equivalent probability of flooding at a particular location. | |||
=====NOAA Maintains Prediction for Below-Normal Atlantic Hurricane Season===== | |||
[https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-maintains-prediction-for-below-normal-atlantic-hurricane-season Article link] | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA | August 6, 2026 | |||
NOAA explains that El Niño-related wind shear is expected to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity while conditions favor above-normal activity in the eastern and central Pacific. The update retains an eastern Pacific forecast of 15–22 named storms and a central Pacific forecast of 5–13 tropical cyclones, including depressions. These are full-season basin totals, not predictions of landfalls or storms remaining after August. | |||
=====How Does El Niño Impact Atlantic Hurricane Season?===== | |||
[https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/how-does-el-nino-impact-atlantic-hurricane-season/ Article link] | NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory | NOAA | June 2, 2026 | |||
NOAA explains how El Niño can increase wind shear over the Atlantic and reduce the odds of some tropical cyclone development. | |||
=====El Niño and High Tide Flooding, a Possible Double Whammy===== | |||
[https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/news/may26/el-nino-flooding.html Article link] | NOAA Ocean Service | NOAA | May 15, 2026 | |||
NOAA warns that El Niño could worsen high-tide flooding in some coastal communities by altering regional sea levels and storm patterns. | |||
=====Annual High Tide Flooding Outlook===== | |||
[https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/high-tide-flooding/annual-outlook.html Article link] | NOAA Tides and Currents | NOAA | 2026 | |||
NOAA's high-tide flooding outlook explains how sea level, tides, storms, and ENSO conditions can influence coastal flooding risk. | |||
=====El Niño and Flood Risk===== | |||
[https://www.weather.gov/safety/flood Article link] | National Weather Service | NOAA | Undated | |||
The National Weather Service provides flood safety information relevant to regions where El Niño can raise odds of heavy precipitation. | |||
=== Drought, Rainfall Deficits, and Water Security === | |||
=====El Niño Will Unleash Multiple Hazards in South-West Indian Ocean Region===== | |||
[https://public.wmo.int/media/news/el-nino-will-unleash-multiple-hazards-south-west-indian-ocean-region Article link] | World Meteorological Organization | WMO | October 1, 2026 | |||
WMO summarizes the regional outlook for October 2026–March 2027, identifying increased drought risk in South Africa, southern and central Mozambique, Malawi, and southwestern Madagascar. Drought and above-normal temperatures could reduce agricultural productivity, damage pasture, and strain water supplies. Risks vary within countries: northern Malawi and northern and eastern Madagascar may experience wetter conditions. | |||
=====El Niño Strength Doesn't Always Match Impact on Australia===== | |||
[https://www.bom.gov.au/news-and-media/el-nino-strength-doesnt-always-match-impact-on-australia Article link] | Bureau of Meteorology | Australian Government | Updated September 28, 2026 | |||
Australia's Bureau of Meteorology explains that El Niño can increase drying and drought risk, but its strength does not directly determine local impacts. The article describes below-average rainfall prospects for parts of southeastern Australia alongside wetter prospects elsewhere. Existing water storage, earlier rainfall, surrounding ocean temperatures, and other climate influences affect how seriously communities experience water shortages. | |||
=====Global Weather Hazards: Drought Expanding in Parts of Central America===== | |||
[https://fews.net/global/global-weather-hazards/september-2026-1 Article link] | Famine Early Warning Systems Network | FEWS NET | Outlook period September 17–23, 2026 | |||
This weekly hazards assessment identifies expanding drought in parts of Central America alongside abnormal heat affecting several tropical regions. It provides evidence of developing conditions during the strengthening El Niño, complementing longer-range forecasts. Because this is a dated weekly assessment, it should be retained as a historical snapshot rather than presented as a current warning. | |||
=====As El Niño Strengthens, What Could It Mean for Food Production in South America?===== | |||
[https://fews.net/blog/2026-09-14/el-nino-strengthens-what-could-it-mean-food-production-south-america Article link] | Cassidy Ochoa | FEWS NET | September 14, 2026 | |||
This analysis discusses projected rainfall deficits in parts of Colombia, Venezuela, Brazil, and Bolivia, with potential consequences for rain-fed agriculture. It highlights the vulnerability of crops such as potatoes and quinoa in Bolivia's Altiplano. Although published in September, the article draws on July-issued forecast guidance, so its projections should be read alongside newer regional outlooks. | |||
=====Forecast El Niño-Related Below-Average Rainfall Likely to Impact Livelihoods and Markets===== | |||
[https://fews.net/southern-africa/zimbabwe/key-message-update/september-2026 Article link] | Famine Early Warning Systems Network | FEWS NET | September 2026 | |||
FEWS NET anticipates an erratic start to Zimbabwe's November–March rainy season, below-average rainfall, and above-average temperatures through at least January. Rainfall deficits could limit pasture and water replenishment, while agricultural uncertainty and rising staple-food prices threaten household food access. The report also describes preparations including drought-tolerant crops, fodder storage, and measures to strengthen grain supplies. | |||
=====Historically Poor Kiremt Rainfall Linked to El Niño Drives Meher Crop Losses===== | |||
[https://fews.net/east-africa/ethiopia/food-security-outlook-update/august-2026 Article link] | Famine Early Warning Systems Network | FEWS NET | August 2026 | |||
FEWS NET reports severe rainfall deficits and exceptional drought conditions across much of Ethiopia's kiremt-growing areas. Poor rains have delayed planting and damaged crop conditions, particularly in northern, central, and eastern areas. The outlook connects these observed deficits with anticipated harvest losses and food-security pressures extending into January 2027. | |||
=====El Niño Expected to Trigger Severe Global Droughts===== | |||
[https://www.un-ihe.org/news/el-nino-expected-trigger-severe-global-droughts-2026-2027 Article link] | IHE Delft Institute for Water Education | IHE Delft | June 17, 2026 | |||
Water experts warned that El Niño could reduce rainfall, river flows, and reservoir levels in drought-prone regions during the 2026–27 season. | |||
=====El Niño and Water Security===== | |||
[https://www.unwater.org/ Article link] | UN-Water | United Nations | 2026 | |||
UN-Water provides resources on water scarcity, drought, floods, and climate variability, including risks heightened during El Niño events. | |||
=====El Niño and Drought Monitoring===== | |||
[https://www.drought.gov/ Article link] | National Integrated Drought Information System | NOAA | 2026 | |||
NOAA's drought portal provides monitoring and outlook tools for drought risks that can be influenced by El Niño and other climate patterns. | |||
=== Weather, Climate, Health, and Hazard Impacts === | |||
=====Climate Patterns May Shape Where Violent Conflict Risks Are Amplified===== | =====Climate Patterns May Shape Where Violent Conflict Risks Are Amplified===== | ||
[https://phys.org/news/2026-05-climate-patterns-violent-conflict-amplified.html Article link] | Phys.org | Phys.org | May 11, 2026 | [https://phys.org/news/2026-05-climate-patterns-violent-conflict-amplified.html Article link] | Phys.org | Phys.org | May 11, 2026 | ||
Researchers examined how ENSO and the Indian Ocean Dipole may influence climate stresses that intersect with conflict risk in vulnerable regions. | Researchers examined how ENSO and the Indian Ocean Dipole may influence climate stresses that intersect with conflict risk in vulnerable regions. | ||
=====El Niño and Climate Services===== | |||
[https://www.wmo.int/activities/climate-services Article link] | World Meteorological Organization | WMO | 2026 | |||
WMO explains how climate services convert El Niño forecasts into warnings for agriculture, health, water, energy, and disaster preparedness. | |||
=====El Niño and Global Temperature Records===== | |||
[https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/ Article link] | NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies | NASA | 2026 | |||
NASA temperature datasets help scientists evaluate how El Niño events combine with long-term warming to influence global temperature records. | |||
=====El Niño and Climate Change===== | =====El Niño and Climate Change===== | ||
[https://www.carbonbrief.org/el-nino-and-climate-change-explainer/ Article link] | Carbon Brief | Carbon Brief | | [https://www.carbonbrief.org/el-nino-and-climate-change-explainer/ Article link] | Carbon Brief | Carbon Brief | Undated | ||
Carbon Brief explains how El Niño works, how it affects global weather, and what scientists know about links between ENSO and climate change. | Carbon Brief explains how El Niño works, how it affects global weather, and what scientists know about links between ENSO and climate change. | ||
=====El Niño, La Niña, and the Southern Oscillation===== | =====El Niño, La Niña, and the Southern Oscillation===== | ||
[https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/oceans/el-nino Article link] | Met Office | Met Office | | [https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/oceans/el-nino Article link] | Met Office | Met Office | Undated | ||
The Met Office explains how El Niño and La Niña form in the tropical Pacific and how they influence weather patterns worldwide. | The Met Office explains how El Niño and La Niña form in the tropical Pacific and how they influence weather patterns worldwide. | ||
=====El Niño and La Niña: What They Mean for Weather===== | =====El Niño and La Niña: What They Mean for Weather===== | ||
[https://www.noaa.gov/education/resource-collections/weather-atmosphere/el-nino Article link] | NOAA Education | NOAA | | [https://www.noaa.gov/education/resource-collections/weather-atmosphere/el-nino Article link] | NOAA Education | NOAA | Undated | ||
NOAA Education provides a plain-language explanation of El Niño, La Niña, and how tropical Pacific changes affect global weather. | NOAA Education provides a plain-language explanation of El Niño, La Niña, and how tropical Pacific changes affect global weather. | ||
=== Recent ENSO History, 2022–2025 === | |||
===Recent ENSO History, | |||
=====A Subtle Return of La Niña===== | =====A Subtle Return of La Niña===== | ||
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[https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/may-2024-enso-update-were-10 Article link] | Emily Becker | NOAA Climate.gov | May 9, 2024 | [https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/may-2024-enso-update-were-10 Article link] | Emily Becker | NOAA Climate.gov | May 9, 2024 | ||
NOAA marked ten years of ENSO blog updates while discussing the fading 2023–24 El Niño. | NOAA marked ten years of ENSO blog updates while discussing the fading 2023–24 El Niño. | ||
=====Untangling the Winter 2023–24 Precipitation Forecast===== | |||
[https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/untangling-winter-2023-24-precipitation-forecast-ball-yarn Article link] | NOAA Climate.gov | NOAA | April 25, 2024 | |||
NOAA reviewed why winter precipitation during the 2023–24 El Niño differed from classic forecast patterns in some areas. | |||
=====El Niño, Ocean Heat, and Coral Reefs===== | =====El Niño, Ocean Heat, and Coral Reefs===== | ||
[https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-confirms-4th-global-coral-bleaching-event Article link] | NOAA | NOAA | April 2024 | [https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-confirms-4th-global-coral-bleaching-event Article link] | NOAA | NOAA | April 2024 | ||
NOAA confirmed a global coral bleaching event driven by ocean heat, showing the kinds of marine ecosystem risks that can worsen during El Niño periods. | NOAA confirmed a global coral bleaching event driven by ocean heat, showing the kinds of marine ecosystem risks that can worsen during El Niño periods. | ||
=====January 2024 El Niño Update: For the Birds===== | =====January 2024 El Niño Update: For the Birds===== | ||
| Line 517: | Line 691: | ||
NOAA explained continuing La Niña conditions and the longer-term ENSO outlook after multiple cool-season events. | NOAA explained continuing La Niña conditions and the longer-term ENSO outlook after multiple cool-season events. | ||
===Reference, Data, and Monitoring Resources=== | === Reference, Data, and Monitoring Resources === | ||
=====Climate Bulletins===== | |||
[https://climate.copernicus.eu/climate-bulletin Article link] | Copernicus Climate Change Service | Copernicus | 2026 | |||
Copernicus climate bulletins track global temperature, sea surface temperature, sea ice, and tropical Pacific conditions relevant to El Niño monitoring. | |||
=====NOAA Oceanic Niño Index===== | |||
[https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php Article link] | NOAA Climate Prediction Center | NOAA | 2026 | |||
NOAA's Oceanic Niño Index provides the official historical record used to classify El Niño and La Niña episodes. | |||
=====Multivariate ENSO Index===== | |||
[https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/ Article link] | NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory | NOAA | 2026 | |||
NOAA's Multivariate ENSO Index combines several ocean-atmosphere variables to describe the strength and evolution of ENSO events. | |||
=====World Meteorological Organization El Niño/La Niña Update===== | |||
[https://wmo.int/topics/el-nino-la-nina Article link] | World Meteorological Organization | WMO | 2026 | |||
WMO explains global El Niño and La Niña monitoring, seasonal forecast updates, and international warnings about climate impacts. | |||
=====Global Seasonal Climate Update===== | |||
[https://wmo.int/publication-series/global-seasonal-climate-update Article link] | World Meteorological Organization | WMO | 2026 | |||
WMO's seasonal climate update summarizes global temperature and rainfall outlooks influenced by ENSO and other large-scale climate drivers. | |||
=====ENSO and Seasonal Forecast Skill===== | |||
[https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/seasonal/ Article link] | European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts | ECMWF | 2026 | |||
ECMWF seasonal charts help track forecast patterns influenced by El Niño, including temperature, rainfall, and sea surface temperature anomalies. | |||
=====El Niño and U.S. Seasonal Outlooks===== | |||
[https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/ Article link] | NOAA Climate Prediction Center | NOAA | 2026 | |||
NOAA seasonal outlooks translate ENSO forecasts into probabilities for temperature and precipitation across the United States. | |||
=====El Niño and Australia’s Climate Outlook===== | |||
[http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/ Article link] | Bureau of Meteorology | Australian Government | 2026 | |||
Australia's Bureau of Meteorology tracks ENSO status and explains how El Niño can influence heat, rainfall, drought, and bushfire risk. | |||
=====El Niño and Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures===== | |||
[https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ocean/ Article link] | Bureau of Meteorology | Australian Government | 2026 | |||
Australian ocean monitoring products show sea surface temperature anomalies across the Pacific, a key indicator of El Niño strength. | |||
=====El Niño and New Zealand Climate Outlooks===== | |||
[https://niwa.co.nz/climate-and-weather/seasonal-climate-outlook Article link] | National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research | NIWA | 2026 | |||
NIWA seasonal outlooks help show how El Niño can influence rainfall, temperature, and wind patterns around New Zealand. | |||
=====El Niño and Global Climate Monitoring===== | |||
[https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/ Article link] | NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information | NOAA | 2026 | |||
NOAA monthly global climate reports track temperature, precipitation, and ocean conditions during El Niño and other major climate events. | |||
=====What Is the El Niño–Southern Oscillation in a Nutshell?===== | =====What Is the El Niño–Southern Oscillation in a Nutshell?===== | ||
[https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/what-el-nino-southern-oscillation-enso-nutshell Article link] | NOAA Climate.gov | NOAA | | [https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/what-el-nino-southern-oscillation-enso-nutshell Article link] | NOAA Climate.gov | NOAA | Undated | ||
NOAA explains ENSO as a coupled ocean-atmosphere pattern with El Niño and La Niña phases that shift global rainfall and temperature patterns. | NOAA explains ENSO as a coupled ocean-atmosphere pattern with El Niño and La Niña phases that shift global rainfall and temperature patterns. | ||
=====El Niño and La Niña===== | =====El Niño and La Niña===== | ||
[https://www.climate.gov/enso Article link] | NOAA Climate.gov | NOAA | | [https://www.climate.gov/enso Article link] | NOAA Climate.gov | NOAA | Undated | ||
NOAA provides a general guide to El Niño, La Niña, ENSO-neutral conditions, and the global effects of tropical Pacific climate shifts. | NOAA provides a general guide to El Niño, La Niña, ENSO-neutral conditions, and the global effects of tropical Pacific climate shifts. | ||
=====El Niño / Southern Oscillation Monitoring===== | =====El Niño / Southern Oscillation Monitoring===== | ||
[https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/enso/ Article link] | NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information | NOAA | | [https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/enso/ Article link] | NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information | NOAA | Undated | ||
NOAA's NCEI page tracks current ENSO status and provides access to monitoring data, indices, and official outlooks. | NOAA's NCEI page tracks current ENSO status and provides access to monitoring data, indices, and official outlooks. | ||
=====El Niño Southern Oscillation Dashboard===== | =====El Niño Southern Oscillation Dashboard===== | ||
[https://data.marine.copernicus.eu/dashboard/c8772496-8510-4353-9c99-d67a3168e269 Article link] | Copernicus Marine Service | Copernicus | | [https://data.marine.copernicus.eu/dashboard/c8772496-8510-4353-9c99-d67a3168e269 Article link] | Copernicus Marine Service | Copernicus | Undated | ||
Copernicus provides an interactive dashboard for tracking ENSO-related sea surface temperature and ocean indicators. | Copernicus provides an interactive dashboard for tracking ENSO-related sea surface temperature and ocean indicators. | ||
=====Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly===== | =====Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly===== | ||
[https://science.nasa.gov/earth/earth-observatory/global-maps/sea-surface-temperature-anomaly/ Article link] | NASA Earth Observatory | NASA | | [https://science.nasa.gov/earth/earth-observatory/global-maps/sea-surface-temperature-anomaly/ Article link] | NASA Earth Observatory | NASA | Undated | ||
NASA's global sea surface temperature anomaly maps help show the ocean warming patterns that define El Niño and La Niña events. | NASA's global sea surface temperature anomaly maps help show the ocean warming patterns that define El Niño and La Niña events. | ||
=====El Niño===== | =====El Niño===== | ||
[https://science.nasa.gov/earth/explore/el-nino/ Article link] | NASA Science | NASA | | [https://science.nasa.gov/earth/explore/el-nino/ Article link] | NASA Science | NASA | Undated | ||
NASA's El Niño topic page collects satellite observations, Earth Observatory articles, and mission resources about the ENSO cycle. | NASA's El Niño topic page collects satellite observations, Earth Observatory articles, and mission resources about the ENSO cycle. | ||
=====Ocean Surface Topography From Space===== | =====Ocean Surface Topography From Space===== | ||
[https://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/ Article link] | Jet Propulsion Laboratory | NASA/JPL | | [https://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/ Article link] | Jet Propulsion Laboratory | NASA/JPL | Undated | ||
NASA's ocean surface topography portal explains how satellite altimetry tracks sea level, ocean circulation, and El Niño-related warm water movement. | NASA's ocean surface topography portal explains how satellite altimetry tracks sea level, ocean circulation, and El Niño-related warm water movement. | ||
=====Altimetric and Ocean Surface Topography Data Information===== | =====Altimetric and Ocean Surface Topography Data Information===== | ||
[https://podaac.jpl.nasa.gov/Altimetric_Data_Information Article link] | Physical Oceanography Distributed Active Archive Center | NASA/JPL | | [https://podaac.jpl.nasa.gov/Altimetric_Data_Information Article link] | Physical Oceanography Distributed Active Archive Center | NASA/JPL | Undated | ||
NASA's PO.DAAC explains altimetry datasets used to monitor ocean height, sea level, and ENSO-linked ocean changes. | NASA's PO.DAAC explains altimetry datasets used to monitor ocean height, sea level, and ENSO-linked ocean changes. | ||
=====ENSO and Global Climate Impacts===== | =====ENSO and Global Climate Impacts===== | ||
[https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/el-ni%C3%B1o-and-la-ni%C3%B1a-frequently-asked-questions Article link] | NOAA Climate.gov | NOAA | | [https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/el-ni%C3%B1o-and-la-ni%C3%B1a-frequently-asked-questions Article link] | NOAA Climate.gov | NOAA | Undated | ||
NOAA answers common questions about how El Niño and La Niña affect temperature, precipitation, storms, drought, and seasonal outlooks. | NOAA answers common questions about how El Niño and La Niña affect temperature, precipitation, storms, drought, and seasonal outlooks. | ||
=====El Niño Impacts on Fisheries and Marine Ecosystems===== | =====El Niño Impacts on Fisheries and Marine Ecosystems===== | ||
[https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/insight/understanding-marine-heatwaves Article link] | NOAA Fisheries | NOAA | | [https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/insight/understanding-marine-heatwaves Article link] | NOAA Fisheries | NOAA | Undated | ||
NOAA explains how marine heatwaves, often intensified during El Niño periods, affect fisheries, marine mammals, seabirds, and ocean ecosystems. | NOAA explains how marine heatwaves, often intensified during El Niño periods, affect fisheries, marine mammals, seabirds, and ocean ecosystems. | ||
=====Marine Heatwave Tracker===== | =====Marine Heatwave Tracker===== | ||
[https://www.integratedecosystemassessment.noaa.gov/regions/california-current/cc-projects-blobtracker Article link] | NOAA Integrated Ecosystem Assessment | NOAA | | [https://www.integratedecosystemassessment.noaa.gov/regions/california-current/cc-projects-blobtracker Article link] | NOAA Integrated Ecosystem Assessment | NOAA | Undated | ||
NOAA's marine heatwave tracker monitors warm ocean anomalies in the California Current, helping scientists assess ecosystem risks during El Niño years. | NOAA's marine heatwave tracker monitors warm ocean anomalies in the California Current, helping scientists assess ecosystem risks during El Niño years. | ||
=====El Niño and Coral Bleaching===== | =====El Niño and Coral Bleaching===== | ||
[https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/ Article link] | NOAA Coral Reef Watch | NOAA | | [https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/ Article link] | NOAA Coral Reef Watch | NOAA | Undated | ||
NOAA Coral Reef Watch tracks ocean heat stress and coral bleaching risk, which can intensify during El Niño and marine heatwave conditions. | NOAA Coral Reef Watch tracks ocean heat stress and coral bleaching risk, which can intensify during El Niño and marine heatwave conditions. | ||
=====NASA Sea Level Change Portal===== | =====NASA Sea Level Change Portal===== | ||
[https://sealevel.nasa.gov/ Article link] | NASA Sea Level Change Team | NASA | | [https://sealevel.nasa.gov/ Article link] | NASA Sea Level Change Team | NASA | Undated | ||
NASA's sea level portal explains satellite measurements of ocean height, including data useful for tracking El Niño-related warm water movement. | NASA's sea level portal explains satellite measurements of ocean height, including data useful for tracking El Niño-related warm water movement. | ||
=====Copernicus Marine Ocean Monitoring Indicators===== | =====Copernicus Marine Ocean Monitoring Indicators===== | ||
[https://marine.copernicus.eu/access-data/ocean-monitoring-indicators Article link] | Copernicus Marine Service | Copernicus | | [https://marine.copernicus.eu/access-data/ocean-monitoring-indicators Article link] | Copernicus Marine Service | Copernicus | Undated | ||
Copernicus indicators provide ocean heat, sea level, and temperature datasets used to monitor ENSO and broader ocean climate change. | Copernicus indicators provide ocean heat, sea level, and temperature datasets used to monitor ENSO and broader ocean climate change. | ||
=====Copernicus Climate Data Store===== | =====Copernicus Climate Data Store===== | ||
[https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/ Article link] | Copernicus Climate Change Service | Copernicus | | [https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/ Article link] | Copernicus Climate Change Service | Copernicus | Undated | ||
Copernicus data products support climate analysis of sea surface temperature, ocean heat, and atmospheric conditions linked to El Niño. | Copernicus data products support climate analysis of sea surface temperature, ocean heat, and atmospheric conditions linked to El Niño. | ||
=====NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory ENSO Resources===== | =====NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory ENSO Resources===== | ||
[https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/ Article link] | NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory | NOAA | | [https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/ Article link] | NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory | NOAA | Undated | ||
NOAA PSL provides ENSO datasets, maps, and research resources for studying El Niño, La Niña, and global climate teleconnections. | NOAA PSL provides ENSO datasets, maps, and research resources for studying El Niño, La Niña, and global climate teleconnections. | ||
=====NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO Monitoring===== | =====NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO Monitoring===== | ||
[https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml Article link] | NOAA Climate Prediction Center | NOAA | | [https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml Article link] | NOAA Climate Prediction Center | NOAA | Undated | ||
NOAA CPC provides maps and monitoring products showing tropical Pacific sea surface temperature, winds, and atmospheric patterns. | NOAA CPC provides maps and monitoring products showing tropical Pacific sea surface temperature, winds, and atmospheric patterns. | ||
=====El Niño and Ocean Data From Space===== | =====El Niño and Ocean Data From Space===== | ||
[https://earthdata.nasa.gov/topics/ocean Article link] | NASA Earthdata | NASA | | [https://earthdata.nasa.gov/topics/ocean Article link] | NASA Earthdata | NASA | Undated | ||
NASA Earthdata provides ocean datasets from satellites that help scientists monitor sea surface temperature, sea surface height, and El Niño changes. | NASA Earthdata provides ocean datasets from satellites that help scientists monitor sea surface temperature, sea surface height, and El Niño changes. | ||
=====El Niño and Earth System Forecasting===== | =====El Niño and Earth System Forecasting===== | ||
[https://www.noaa.gov/earth-system-research-laboratories Article link] | NOAA | NOAA | | [https://www.noaa.gov/earth-system-research-laboratories Article link] | NOAA | NOAA | Undated | ||
NOAA research laboratories study ocean-atmosphere interactions, climate prediction, and the forecasting systems used to anticipate El Niño impacts. | NOAA research laboratories study ocean-atmosphere interactions, climate prediction, and the forecasting systems used to anticipate El Niño impacts. | ||
===Historical Background and Satellite Archives=== | === Historical Background and Satellite Archives === | ||
=====Impacts of El Niño and La Niña on the Hurricane Season===== | =====Impacts of El Niño and La Niña on the Hurricane Season===== | ||
Latest revision as of 16:59, 1 October 2026
Updated October 1, 2026. Forecasts and observations are identified by their source dates.
Current Status and Forecasts
Updated October 1, 2026.
- Official Status: NOAA declared El Niño on June 11, 2026. Its September assessments describe an established and strengthening event, with ocean temperatures, winds, and rainfall patterns showing a coupled ocean-atmosphere response.
- Anticipated Strength: NOAA's September 10 discussion gives a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño during Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026–27. It assigns a 75% probability that the October–December three-month Relative Oceanic Niño Index will reach at least +2.5°C, exceeding earlier events in that index's record beginning in 1950. These are forecasts of eventual strength, not confirmation that the seasonal peak has occurred.
- Expected Duration: WMO's September assessment gives a near-100% probability of El Niño continuing through February 2027. NOAA's September outlook anticipates persistence through March–May 2027, followed by an increasing possibility of neutral conditions.
- Satellite Observations: NASA's Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich and Sentinel-6B satellites are tracking sea surface height and the redistribution of ocean heat. NASA's PACE satellite has also detected changes in surface chlorophyll consistent with reduced nutrient availability in parts of the equatorial Pacific.
- Regional Uncertainty: A very strong El Niño increases confidence in some broad climate patterns but does not guarantee particular local disasters. Regional outcomes also depend on other climate influences, existing environmental conditions, and individual weather systems.
Record-Breaking Ocean Warmth
- Ocean and Atmospheric Warmth: Copernicus reports that August 2026 tied July 2023 as the warmest month across all calendar months in its ERA5 dataset. Monthly sea surface temperatures outside the polar regions also tied their highest recorded value.
- Compounding Factors: El Niño is developing against a background of long-term human-driven warming. Exceptional ocean warmth can contribute to atmospheric moisture, marine heat stress, and weather extremes, although individual events require separate analysis before their causes can be established.
- Marine Food Webs: NASA's August report describes lower chlorophyll concentrations in the central equatorial Pacific compared with June 2025. Weaker upwelling during El Niño can reduce the nutrient supply supporting phytoplankton, with consequences for fish, seabirds, and marine mammals.
Projected Global Impacts
Food Security and Economic Risks
- Projected Hunger: WFP's initial analysis estimates that El Niño-related shocks could push at least 49 million additional people into acute food insecurity by the end of 2027 across 45 vulnerable countries. This is a modeled projection, not an observed increase or a prediction that all affected people will experience famine.
- Regions at Risk: WFP identifies particularly serious risks in Central America and southern Africa, with additional concerns in eastern Africa and South and Southeast Asia. Drought, flooding, disrupted harvests, and reduced agricultural income can compound existing poverty, conflict, and limited humanitarian assistance.
- Food Prices and Access: FAO reports that international food commodity prices rose 1.9% in August 2026. El Niño-related production concerns contributed to pressure on vegetable oil and sugar prices. Higher transport and fertilizer costs can further constrain farmers and households.
- Global Supply Context: FAO's September assessment forecasts lower cereal production than in 2025 but still the second-largest global harvest on record and relatively comfortable aggregate stocks. Severe regional hunger can therefore coexist with substantial worldwide food supplies when households lose income or cannot obtain affordable food.
- Impacts Into 2027: Damage to planting, livestock, and harvest cycles can prolong food-security problems beyond El Niño's climatic peak.
Drought and Water Security
- Southern Africa: WMO's October 1 outlook identifies increased drought risk through March 2027 in South Africa, southern and central Mozambique, Malawi, and southwestern Madagascar. Forecast heat and rainfall deficits could reduce crop productivity, pasture growth, and water availability. Conditions vary within countries, with wetter prospects in some northern areas.
- Zimbabwe: FEWS NET anticipates an erratic start to the November–March rainy season, below-average rainfall, and above-average temperatures through at least January. Reduced pasture and water replenishment could add to agricultural and livestock pressures.
- East Africa: FEWS NET reports severe rainfall deficits affecting Ethiopia's main growing areas and production concerns elsewhere in the region. Forecast wetter conditions later in the year may benefit some areas while arriving too late to reverse earlier crop damage.
- South America: Assessments identify potential rainfall deficits in parts of Colombia, Venezuela, Brazil, and Bolivia. Rain-fed agriculture, including potatoes and quinoa in Bolivia's Altiplano, is vulnerable to disrupted seasonal rainfall.
- Australia: The Bureau of Meteorology emphasizes that strong El Niño conditions do not imply uniform drought. Below-average rainfall prospects in parts of southeastern Australia coexist with wetter prospects elsewhere, while earlier rainfall and stored water influence vulnerability.
Flooding, Storms, and Strong Winds
- East African Flood Risk: ICPAC forecasts enhanced October–December rainfall in parts of Ethiopia, Somalia, and Kenya, influenced by El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole. Flooding could damage crops and infrastructure, displace communities, and disrupt access to markets and services.
- Somalia: IPC projects 5.4 million people facing Crisis or worse acute food insecurity during October–December 2026. Under a plausible worst-case scenario involving more severe flooding and displacement, internally displaced people in Baidoa face a risk of Famine. This is a conditional warning, not a declaration that famine is occurring.
- United States Winter Outlook: NOAA's September seasonal outlook favors wetter-than-normal conditions across much of the southern United States and portions of the Atlantic coast, with increased winter precipitation probabilities in California. These outlooks describe seasonal totals rather than the timing or severity of individual storms.
- California Preparedness: California's September 21 emergency declaration mobilizes resources ahead of potential heavy rain, strong winds, flooding, landslides, debris flows, large waves, and coastal erosion. The action supports preparedness rather than establishing that severe impacts will occur everywhere.
- New Zealand Winds: Earth Sciences New Zealand forecasts periods of unusually windy spring weather, prevailing westerly airflow, and greater temperature variability. Heavy rain is more likely in southern and western areas, while other regions face increased drying.
Coastal and Marine Risks
- Coastal Flooding: Temporarily elevated sea levels can combine with high tides, storm surge, and large waves to increase flooding and erosion. Coastal impacts may occur even without exceptional rainfall at the affected location.
- Marine Ecosystems: Warm waters and reduced upwelling can disrupt nutrient supplies and marine food webs. Marine heatwaves also threaten fisheries and other ocean ecosystems, although their development reflects multiple interacting influences.
- Interacting Hazards: Coastal communities may experience overlapping effects from erosion, wave damage, flooding, and disrupted transport. The severity depends on local exposure and the timing of tides and storms.
Tropical Cyclones
- Atlantic Basin: NOAA's August update favors below-normal hurricane activity, partly because El Niño increases vertical wind shear that can inhibit storm formation and intensification. Lower seasonal activity does not eliminate the possibility of a damaging landfall.
- Eastern and Central Pacific: NOAA expects above-normal seasonal activity in both basins. These are forecasts of overall basin activity, not predictions of where individual hurricanes will strike.
- South-West Indian Ocean: WMO's October 1 assessment anticipates below-normal basin-wide cyclone activity and a possible southward shift in tracks. Local risks remain, including near-normal cyclone risk for the Mascarene Islands.
Scientific and Historical Context
- El Niño and Climate Change: El Niño is a naturally recurring ocean-atmosphere pattern operating within a warming climate. Human-driven warming can intensify background heat and some associated hazards, while the influence on specific regional outcomes varies.
- Other Climate Drivers: The Indian Ocean Dipole, surrounding ocean temperatures, atmospheric circulation, and shorter-term weather variability can reinforce or counteract typical El Niño effects. A single event can contribute to drought in one region and excessive rainfall in another.
- Recent ENSO Cycle: The historical sources cover the 2023–24 El Niño, the end of a short-lived La Niña in April 2025, renewed La Niña observations later in 2025, and the development of El Niño in 2026.
- Interpreting the Evidence: Observed conditions, seasonal forecasts, modeled humanitarian risks, and preparedness announcements serve different purposes. Their dates and geographic scope should remain explicit, especially when using monitoring pages that are updated regularly.
Sources are sorted newest first within each section. Entries with only a month or year follow the more precisely dated entries in that period; undated resources appear last. Rolling pages may change after the edition described here.
El Niño Development, Forecasts, and Official Updates
ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
Article link | NOAA Climate Prediction Center | NOAA | September 28, 2026
NOAA's weekly update documents continuing El Niño conditions through observations of Pacific sea surface temperatures, subsurface heat, winds, and atmospheric circulation. It retains the September outlook showing a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026–27.
September 2026 ENSO Forecast: Quick Look and Technical Update
Article link | International Research Institute for Climate and Society | Columbia Climate School | September 21, 2026
IRI reports that all 22 participating forecast models project very strong El Niño conditions through winter 2026–27. The assessment describes substantial subsurface ocean warmth and an established atmospheric response, while noting that models differ on the eventual peak.
Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion
Article link | NOAA Climate Prediction Center | NOAA | September 10, 2026
NOAA forecasts a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño during fall and winter 2026–27. For October–December, it assigns a 75% probability to a three-month Relative Oceanic Niño Index of at least +2.5°C, which would exceed earlier events in its record beginning in 1950. These are forecasts rather than confirmation of the event's eventual peak.
El Niño Set to Become Very Strong, Raising Risks of Extreme Weather Into 2027
Article link | World Meteorological Organization | WMO | September 3, 2026
WMO reports that El Niño is firmly established, with a near-100% forecast probability of continuing through February 2027. It warns of changing rainfall patterns, drought, flooding, and extreme heat, while emphasizing that regional impacts also depend on season, location, and other climate drivers, including the Indian Ocean Dipole.
Strong El Niño Expected to Intensify
Article link | World Meteorological Organization | WMO | July 31, 2026
WMO's August–October outlook anticipated further El Niño strengthening alongside exceptionally warm oceans and a developing positive Indian Ocean Dipole. The report explains how these combined influences can alter regional rainfall and temperature risks and calls for early preparation in agriculture, health, and disaster management.
El Niño Is Underway, Satellite Observations Show
Article link | NASA | Phys.org | June 21, 2026
NASA satellite observations show that El Niño conditions are developing, with sea-surface-height patterns indicating changes in the tropical Pacific.
El Niño Is Underway
Article link | NASA Earth Observatory | NASA | June 18, 2026
NASA Earth Observatory reports that Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich detected higher-than-normal sea surfaces in the central and eastern Pacific as El Niño strengthened.
Super El Niños May Lose Their Punch in a Warming World
Article link | Geophysical Research Letters | Phys.org | June 16, 2026
Researchers modeled how intense eastern Pacific El Niño events may change as the global climate warms.
El Niño Arrives and Could Rank Among Strongest Events
Article link | AFP | Phys.org | June 13, 2026
Scientists warned that the newly declared El Niño could become very strong, with potential global effects on drought, rainfall, and heat.
El Niño Forms, Expected to Strengthen, Say NOAA Forecasters
Article link | NOAA | NOAA | June 11, 2026
NOAA declared that El Niño had formed and forecast that the event could strengthen into a moderate or strong phase by fall and winter.
El Niño Is Here and Scientists Fear It’ll Be Big, Bad and Costly
Article link | Associated Press | Phys.org | June 11, 2026
Scientists cautioned that the 2026 El Niño could become one of the strongest on record and bring major economic and humanitarian impacts.
Seasonal Forecasts Point Toward Large El Niño Event
Article link | Copernicus Climate Change Service | Copernicus | June 10, 2026
Copernicus seasonal forecasts show a strong signal for a large El Niño event developing later in 2026.
Odds Climb for Record El Niño as Models Predict Strong Warming
Article link | AFP | Phys.org | June 10, 2026
Climate model forecasts raised the odds of a major El Niño event, with scientists warning of possible impacts on heat, rainfall, drought, and food systems.
What Is Godzilla El Niño?
Article link | The Conversation | Phys.org | June 4, 2026
Scientists explain why dramatic labels like “Godzilla El Niño” can be misleading, emphasizing that El Niño raises risks rather than guaranteeing specific outcomes.
A Very Strong El Niño Is Approaching
Article link | The Conversation | Phys.org | June 3, 2026
Researchers describe what a very strong El Niño could mean for drought, rainfall, heat, and regional climate impacts around the world.
Official NOAA CPC ENSO Probabilities
Article link | NOAA Climate Prediction Center | NOAA | June 2026
NOAA's probability outlook shows El Niño strongly favored through winter, based on climate models, observations, and expert assessment.
Official NOAA CPC ENSO Strength Probabilities
Article link | NOAA Climate Prediction Center | NOAA | June 2026
NOAA's ENSO strength outlook estimates the chances of weak, moderate, strong, and very strong El Niño conditions across upcoming seasons.
Experimental Seasonal Forecasts
Article link | NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory | NOAA | June 2026
NOAA GFDL's SPEAR forecast system shows model projections for ENSO development, including uncertainty in future El Niño strength.
Warming El Niño Set to Return in Mid-2026
Article link | AFP | Phys.org | April 24, 2026
The World Meteorological Organization said El Niño was likely to return in mid-2026, with potential impacts on global heat and rainfall patterns.
El Niño Season Predicted to Start as Early as Next Month
Article link | World Meteorological Organization | Phys.org | April 24, 2026
WMO forecasts suggested that El Niño could begin as early as May to July 2026 as tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures rose rapidly.
Simple Ocean-Based Model Forecasts a Powerful El Niño
Article link | University of Hawaiʻi | Phys.org | April 21, 2026
Researchers report that an ocean-based ENSO model forecasts a powerful El Niño, offering useful warning for governments and communities.
Pacific Ocean Warming Signals Possible Return of Strong El Niño
Article link | Met Office | Met Office | April 15, 2026
The UK Met Office explains signs of tropical Pacific warming and why an emerging El Niño could affect weather patterns far beyond the Pacific.
El Niño Prediction Based on Weather Forecast and Geographical Time-Series Data
Article link | Viet Trinh et al. | arXiv | April 5, 2026
Researchers proposed a deep-learning framework using weather forecasts and geographical time-series data to improve El Niño prediction.
Climate Network and Complexity-Based ENSO Forecast for 2026
Article link | Josef Ludescher et al. | arXiv | February 16, 2026
Researchers tested climate-network and complexity methods for forecasting the 2026 ENSO state, showing how difficult early El Niño prediction can be.
Are We Heading Toward a Super El Niño in 2026?
Article link | Zero Carbon Analytics | Zero Carbon Analytics | 2026
Analysts summarize the evidence for a possible strong El Niño and explain how climate change can amplify its risks.
Current ENSO Alert System Status
Article link | NOAA Climate Prediction Center | NOAA | 2026
NOAA's ENSO advisory page provides official updates on whether El Niño, La Niña, or neutral conditions are present.
NOAA El Niño and La Niña Current Conditions
Article link | NOAA Climate Prediction Center | NOAA | 2026
NOAA tracks weekly sea surface temperature, wind, cloud, and subsurface ocean conditions across the tropical Pacific.
Ocean Heat, Satellites, Sea Level, and Marine Ecosystems
August Was the World's Joint Hottest Month on Record, Pushing Global Temperatures Back Above 1.5°C Above Pre-Industrial Levels
Article link | Copernicus Climate Change Service | Copernicus / ECMWF | September 10, 2026
Copernicus reports that August 2026 tied July 2023 as the warmest month across all calendar months in its ERA5 dataset. Average sea surface temperatures outside the polar regions also tied their highest monthly value. The report links exceptional ocean warmth to long-term global heating and rapidly warming equatorial Pacific waters associated with El Niño.
How 2 US, European Satellites Are Studying Hurricanes During El Niño
Article link | NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory | NASA/JPL | September 9, 2026
NASA explains how Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich and Sentinel-6B are measuring sea surface height during the developing El Niño. Their observations help scientists track the redistribution of ocean heat and improve the information available for hurricane forecasting, including research on rapid intensification.
El Niño Warming Pattern in the Pacific Ocean
Article link | European Union / Copernicus Marine Service | EU Space | August 26, 2026
A visualization using August 25 observations shows a distinct band of unusually warm surface water across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. The image provides an updated illustration of the event's ocean-temperature pattern and a useful visual companion to earlier satellite observations.
El Niño Alters Marine Life in the Pacific
Article link | Lindsey Doermann | NASA Earth Observatory | August 10, 2026
NASA's PACE satellite observations reveal lower chlorophyll concentrations in the central equatorial Pacific in June 2026 compared with June 2025. Scientists explain how weakened upwelling reduces nutrient supplies and phytoplankton growth during El Niño, with consequences for marine food webs, fisheries, seabirds, and marine mammals.
Ocean Surface Temperatures Hit Record High for June
Article link | The Guardian | The Guardian | July 1, 2026
Ocean surface temperatures reached record levels for June as scientists warned that extreme ocean warmth and developing El Niño conditions could intensify global climate risks.
Record Sea Temperatures in June Push World Into Uncharted Waters
Article link | Financial Times | Financial Times | July 1, 2026
Global sea temperatures surged to record June levels, raising concern that El Niño and long-term ocean warming may amplify storms, heat waves, and climate instability.
Daily Global Sea Surface Temperatures Break Records
Article link | Copernicus Climate Change Service | Copernicus | July 2026
Copernicus reports record daily sea surface temperatures and warns that El Niño and ocean heat could contribute to further climate extremes.
Ocean Health Bulletin: El Niño June 2026
Article link | Copernicus Marine Service | Copernicus | June 22, 2026
Copernicus Marine reports above-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific as climate scientists confirm El Niño conditions.
El Niño Is Back, and Ocean Temperatures Are Already Near Record Highs
Article link | The Conversation | Phys.org | June 15, 2026
A climate scientist explains how El Niño can trigger marine heatwaves and disrupt fisheries, corals, and ocean ecosystems.
El Niño and Large Marine Heatwave Could Affect West Coast Species
Article link | NOAA Fisheries | NOAA | June 12, 2026
NOAA Fisheries explains how El Niño and a large marine heatwave may affect salmon, squid, seabirds, and other West Coast marine species.
Surging Tropical Pacific Ocean Surface Temperatures and Early European Heatwave
Article link | Copernicus Climate Change Service | Copernicus | June 11, 2026
Copernicus reports rapid warming in the tropical Pacific as the ocean shifts toward El Niño conditions, alongside early-season European heat extremes.
Second-Highest Surface Air and Sea Surface Temperatures for May Globally
Article link | Copernicus Climate Change Service | Copernicus | June 10, 2026
Copernicus reported exceptional tropical Pacific warmth in May as the equatorial Pacific continued its transition toward El Niño.
Sea Surface Height Anomaly, 2026
Article link | NASA Scientific Visualization Studio | NASA | June 9, 2026
NASA visualizations show sea surface height anomalies linked to warmer water and developing El Niño conditions in the eastern equatorial Pacific.
NASA Satellites Reveal Major Ocean Nutrient Stress
Article link | NASA | Phys.org | June 8, 2026
NASA satellite analysis finds ocean nutrient stress linked to warming waters and major climate cycles including El Niño and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.
International Sea Level Satellite Observes El Niño Precursor
Article link | Jet Propulsion Laboratory | NASA/JPL | June 2, 2026
JPL imagery shows a warm Kelvin wave moving eastward across the Pacific, a classic oceanic precursor to El Niño development.
NASA-European Sea Level Mission Homes in on El Niño
Article link | Jet Propulsion Laboratory | NASA/JPL | May 27, 2026
NASA and European partners report that Sentinel-6 observed warm Kelvin waves crossing the Pacific ahead of a likely El Niño.
A Giant Warm Wave Is Crossing the Pacific
Article link | NASA | Phys.org | May 27, 2026
Satellite data show a warm Kelvin wave moving eastward across the Pacific, signaling ocean changes that often precede El Niño.
What Scientists Know About a Potential Super El Niño
Article link | AFP | Phys.org | May 22, 2026
Scientists discuss the evidence for a possible strong El Niño, including rising Pacific sea temperatures and a large reservoir of subsurface heat.
Second-Highest Sea Surface Temperatures Recorded During Third-Warmest April Globally
Article link | Copernicus Climate Change Service | Copernicus | May 8, 2026
Copernicus reported near-record sea surface temperatures and tropical Pacific marine heatwaves as the ocean moved toward El Niño conditions.
West Coast Waters Experiencing Another Large Marine Heatwave
Article link | NOAA Fisheries | NOAA | March 3, 2026
NOAA scientists tracked a large West Coast marine heatwave that could interact with El Niño to affect ecosystems and fisheries.
NASA Analysis Shows La Niña Limited Sea Level Rise in 2025
Article link | Jet Propulsion Laboratory | NASA/JPL | January 29, 2026
NASA analysis found that La Niña conditions affected rainfall and temporarily slowed global mean sea level rise in 2025.
El Niño and Ocean Heat Content
Article link | NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information | NOAA | 2026
NOAA ocean heat content data help researchers track subsurface warming that can fuel El Niño development and marine heatwaves.
Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich Mission
Article link | NASA | NASA | Undated
NASA describes the Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich satellite mission, which measures sea surface height and helps monitor El Niño and global sea level.
Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich Stories
Article link | Jet Propulsion Laboratory | NASA/JPL | Undated
JPL provides mission information and updates on the satellite used to observe sea level patterns linked to El Niño development.
El Niño and Subsurface Pacific Heat
Article link | NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory | NOAA | Undated
NOAA's Tropical Atmosphere Ocean array measures sea temperature, winds, and subsurface heat across the equatorial Pacific, supporting ENSO monitoring.
TAO/TRITON Tropical Pacific Observing System
Article link | NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory | NOAA | Undated
NOAA's tropical moored buoy system provides ocean-atmosphere measurements central to detecting El Niño and La Niña changes.
Food Security, Crop Production, and Economic Risks
How Colliding Crises Are Shaping Somalia's Hunger Emergency
Article link | Sylvie Njobati, Fatima Hirsi and Elizabeth Bryant | World Food Programme | September 29, 2026
WFP explains how expected El Niño-related flooding could compound conflict, displacement, earlier drought, and declining humanitarian funding. It describes preparations for the October–December rainy season and warns that damage to farming and grazing areas could worsen hunger while funding shortages reduce food assistance and nutrition treatment.
Somalia: Acute Food Insecurity Situation for July–September 2026 and Projection for October–December 2026
Article link | Integrated Food Security Phase Classification | IPC | September 23, 2026
IPC projects that 5.4 million people will face Crisis or worse acute food insecurity during October–December 2026, including approximately 1.5 million in Emergency. Expected flooding associated with El Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole is a major driver. Under a plausible worst-case scenario of more severe flooding and displacement, internally displaced people in Baidoa face a risk of Famine; this is a conditional warning, not a declaration that famine is occurring.
Hunger and Malnutrition Crises Persist in Somalia as Projected Floods and Funding Shortfalls Threaten Vulnerable Populations
Article link | Federal Government of Somalia and United Nations | World Food Programme | September 23, 2026
This joint warning explains the humanitarian implications of the September IPC assessment. It estimates that 1.92 million children under five will require acute-malnutrition treatment between July 2026 and June 2027. Anticipated flooding could disrupt livelihoods, displace households, and restrict access to health and nutrition services, while inadequate funding limits the response.
El Niño, Shipping Disruptions and Food Aid Funding Cuts Collide to Deepen Dire Global Hunger Crisis
Article link | International Rescue Committee | IRC | September 18, 2026
IRC warns that drought and flooding could combine with disrupted shipping, rising food and fertilizer costs, and reduced humanitarian funding to worsen hunger. Its analysis indicates that poor rains could push an additional 700,000 people in El Salvador into hunger. The organization calls for early assistance in countries including Guatemala, El Salvador, Somalia, and Kenya.
As a Mighty El Niño Deepens Global Hunger, Early Action Pays Off
Article link | Anam Abbas et al. | World Food Programme | September 11, 2026
WFP describes early assistance and preparedness measures in countries including South Sudan, Chad, Madagascar, Malawi, and Guatemala. Examples include cash transfers, agricultural support, early-warning information, and contingency planning intended to reduce losses before droughts, floods, and disrupted harvests deepen food insecurity.
El Niño Impacts Leads to Poor Production Across East Africa's High Potential Zones
Article link | Famine Early Warning Systems Network | FEWS NET | September 11, 2026
FEWS NET anticipates poor harvests in several important East African agricultural areas following prolonged dry spells and rainfall deficits. It identifies production concerns in Kenya, Uganda, Sudan, South Sudan, and Ethiopia. Wetter conditions later in the year could benefit some crops but also increase flooding, waterlogging, and disruption to planting and harvesting.
Supply Concerns Drive FAO Food Price Index Higher in August
Article link | Food and Agriculture Organization | FAO | September 4, 2026
FAO reports that international food commodity prices rose 1.9% in August. El Niño-related production concerns contributed to pressure on vegetable oil and sugar prices. It forecasts lower global rice output, partly because of El Niño-associated weather, but still expects historically substantial cereal production and stocks. The report provides evidence of market pressures while distinguishing regional food insecurity from aggregate global supply.
FAO GIEWS Country Brief: Angola
Article link | Global Information and Early Warning System on Food and Agriculture | FAO | September 3, 2026
FAO warns that reduced harvests, elevated food costs, and weaker agricultural incomes could aggravate food insecurity in late 2026 and early 2027. Forecasts indicate an increased likelihood of below-average rainfall during the first half of the 2026–27 cropping season, linked to El Niño. This creates a risk of further agricultural stress following an already difficult season. This country-brief URL is updated periodically.
FAO GIEWS Country Brief: Ecuador
Article link | Global Information and Early Warning System on Food and Agriculture | FAO | September 2, 2026
FAO anticipates below-average maize and paddy production after dry weather and constraints on planting. Looking ahead, above-average rainfall associated with El Niño raises the risk of flooding and river overflows affecting coastal maize and rice areas during September–December. Cereal import requirements are forecast to remain above average in 2026–27. This country-brief URL is updated periodically.
World Food Programme Ramps Up Preparedness and Response Plans as El Niño Threatens to Push Tens of Millions Into Acute Hunger
Article link | World Food Programme | WFP | August 5, 2026
WFP's initial analysis across 45 vulnerable countries estimates that El Niño-related shocks could push at least 49 million additional people into acute food insecurity by the end of 2027. This is a modeled risk estimate, not an observed hunger count. The assessment highlights how disrupted planting and harvest cycles can prolong humanitarian impacts beyond the event's climatic peak.
India Warns of Below-Average July Monsoon Rains After Dry June
Article link | Reuters | Reuters | June 30, 2026
Indian forecasters warned that strengthening El Niño conditions could suppress monsoon rainfall, threatening crop planting, water supplies, and food security.
El Niño Is Coming. At the FAO We Know Where Drought Will Hit Hardest
Article link | Reuters | Reuters | June 29, 2026
FAO experts warned that the 2026 El Niño is arriving during a fragile period for global food security, with drought risks concentrated in vulnerable farming regions.
Papua New Guinea at Risk of Food Shortages as El Niño Brings Frost and Drought
Article link | The Guardian | The Guardian | June 25, 2026
El Niño-linked drought and frost threatened food gardens and water supplies in Papua New Guinea, raising concerns about hunger and rural hardship.
Economists See El Niño Lifting Brazil Inflation
Article link | Reuters | Reuters | June 24, 2026
Economists warned that El Niño-related drought and food price shocks could raise Brazil's inflation in 2026 and 2027.
Summer’s Silent Killer: Why the World’s Heat Waves Are a Global Risk
Article link | Phys.org | Phys.org | June 23, 2026
Article explains how El Niño can add to long-term global warming and raise risks of extreme heat, drought, or heavy rainfall in some regions.
El Niño Is Coming. Here Is Where the Risks to Agriculture Are Highest
Article link | FAO | Food and Agriculture Organization | June 22, 2026
FAO maps regions where El Niño-linked drought could threaten crops and pasturelands, highlighting risks to food systems already stressed by climate shocks.
Explainer: Why a Strong El Niño Leaves Tropical Commodities Exposed
Article link | Reuters | Reuters | June 18, 2026
Reuters explains why crops such as coffee, cocoa, sugar, and palm oil are vulnerable to rainfall shifts linked to strong El Niño events.
Emerging 2026 El Niño: Potential Implications for Agriculture and Food Security
Article link | ReliefWeb | ReliefWeb | June 18, 2026
Humanitarian agencies assessed how the emerging 2026 El Niño could affect crops, livestock, food security, and anticipatory action planning.
Potentially Historic El Niño to Come, Analysis Shows Humanitarian Toll
Article link | Joint Research Centre | European Commission | June 15, 2026
European analysts warn that a potentially historic El Niño could worsen drought, flood, heat, and storm conditions in vulnerable regions.
A Strong El Niño May Be Imminent. Climate Change Will Make Its Effects Worse
Article link | Reuters | Reuters | June 3, 2026
Reuters explains how a developing El Niño could combine with climate change to raise global temperatures and worsen weather extremes.
UN Warns World to Prepare for El Niño Extreme Weather
Article link | AFP | Phys.org | June 2, 2026
The World Meteorological Organization warned that El Niño could increase risks of heat waves, drought, heavy rainfall, and other weather extremes.
El Niño May Return in 2026 and Make Planet Even Hotter
Article link | AFP | Phys.org | March 2, 2026
Early forecasts suggested El Niño could return in 2026 and add short-term warming on top of long-term human-driven climate change.
The 2026 El Niño and the Risk to Crops and Food Prices
Article link | Wikifarmer | Wikifarmer | 2026
Article explains how El Niño can affect rainfall, crops, livestock, and food prices in major agricultural regions.
El Niño and Disaster Preparedness
Article link | United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs | OCHA | 2026
OCHA tracks humanitarian risks from El Niño-related drought, flooding, storms, and food insecurity in vulnerable countries.
El Niño and Anticipatory Action
Article link | Anticipation Hub | Anticipation Hub | 2026
Anticipation Hub collects early action resources for climate shocks, including El Niño-related drought, floods, and food security crises.
El Niño and Humanitarian Early Warning
Article link | Famine Early Warning Systems Network | FEWS NET | 2026
FEWS NET monitors food security risks that can worsen during El Niño-related droughts, floods, and crop failures.
El Niño and Pacific Island Climate Impacts
Article link | Pacific Climate Change Portal | Pacific Regional Environment Programme | 2026
Pacific climate resources track drought, rainfall, and food security risks that can intensify across island communities during El Niño.
El Niño and African Climate Risk
Article link | IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre | ICPAC | 2026
ICPAC provides climate outlooks for East Africa, where El Niño can shift rainfall patterns and increase flood or drought risk.
El Niño and Southern Africa Food Security
Article link | Southern African Development Community | SADC | 2026
SADC climate and food security resources help track regional risks from El Niño-linked drought and rainfall deficits.
El Niño and Peru Coastal Waters
Article link | SENAMHI | Government of Peru | 2026
Peru's weather and hydrology service monitors coastal rainfall, temperature, and flood risks that can be affected by eastern Pacific El Niño warming.
El Niño and Global Food Security
Article link | Food and Agriculture Organization | FAO | Undated
FAO provides resources on how El Niño affects crops, livestock, fisheries, food prices, and early warning systems.
El Niño and Public Health Risks
Article link | World Health Organization | WHO | Undated
WHO summarizes health risks linked to El Niño, including heat stress, infectious disease, food insecurity, and disaster impacts.
El Niño and Heat Risk
Article link | National Weather Service | NOAA | Undated
NOAA provides heat safety guidance for periods when El Niño and long-term warming can increase the odds of extreme heat in some regions.
El Niño and Global Precipitation Patterns
Article link | NASA Global Precipitation Measurement Mission | NASA | Undated
NASA's precipitation mission helps track rainfall changes that may be influenced by El Niño-driven shifts in atmospheric circulation.
Flooding, Coastal Hazards, Hurricanes, and Strong Winds
Governor Newsom Proclaims State of Emergency to Bolster Statewide El Niño Preparedness, Protect California
Article link | Office of Governor Gavin Newsom | State of California | September 21, 2026
California's preparedness announcement identifies potential hazards from repeated heavy rainfall, strong winds, mountain snow, flooding, landslides, debris flows, and large coastal waves during the 2026–27 winter. It describes advance positioning of flood-response supplies and equipment. The declaration is a precautionary action addressing possible impacts, rather than a prediction that every location will experience severe flooding.
Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Seasonal Outlooks
Article link | Anthony Artusa | NOAA Climate Prediction Center | September 17, 2026
NOAA favors wetter-than-normal conditions across much of the southern United States and along portions of the Atlantic coast during fall and winter, associated with the subtropical jet stream and storm track. Winter precipitation probabilities also favor wetter conditions in California. These seasonal rainfall probabilities provide context for flood preparedness but do not forecast individual floods, storm dates, or damaging wind speeds. This URL is updated monthly.
Prepare Your Coastal Property for El Niño
Article link | California Coastal Commission | State of California | Updated September 11, 2026
The Commission discusses the combined coastal hazards of elevated sea levels, high tides, storm surge, large waves, and erosion during the 2026–27 El Niño. It explains why coastal properties can face greater flooding and wave damage when several factors coincide, and provides preparedness resources for communities, shoreline properties, and bluff-top areas.
Seasonal Climate Outlook: September–November 2026
Article link | Earth Sciences New Zealand | Earth Sciences New Zealand / NIWA | September 2, 2026
New Zealand's outlook anticipates prevailing westerly airflow, periods of unusually windy weather, and increased temperature variability as El Niño influences spring conditions. Heavy rainfall is more likely in southern and western areas, with above-normal seasonal rainfall strongly favored for the west of the South Island. Other regions face reduced rainfall and increased drying, illustrating how wind and rainfall hazards vary within the same country.
The Greater Horn of Africa Is Expected to Experience a Wetter-Than-Normal October–December 2026 Season as El Niño Strengthens
Article link | IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre | ICPAC | August 18, 2026
ICPAC forecasts enhanced October–December rainfall associated with El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole. It assigns a 90% probability of wetter-than-normal conditions to southern Ethiopia, central and southern Somalia, and northeastern Kenya. This regional rainfall outlook supports flood preparedness, but the probability of above-normal rainfall should not be interpreted as an equivalent probability of flooding at a particular location.
NOAA Maintains Prediction for Below-Normal Atlantic Hurricane Season
Article link | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA | August 6, 2026
NOAA explains that El Niño-related wind shear is expected to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity while conditions favor above-normal activity in the eastern and central Pacific. The update retains an eastern Pacific forecast of 15–22 named storms and a central Pacific forecast of 5–13 tropical cyclones, including depressions. These are full-season basin totals, not predictions of landfalls or storms remaining after August.
How Does El Niño Impact Atlantic Hurricane Season?
Article link | NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory | NOAA | June 2, 2026
NOAA explains how El Niño can increase wind shear over the Atlantic and reduce the odds of some tropical cyclone development.
El Niño and High Tide Flooding, a Possible Double Whammy
Article link | NOAA Ocean Service | NOAA | May 15, 2026
NOAA warns that El Niño could worsen high-tide flooding in some coastal communities by altering regional sea levels and storm patterns.
Annual High Tide Flooding Outlook
Article link | NOAA Tides and Currents | NOAA | 2026
NOAA's high-tide flooding outlook explains how sea level, tides, storms, and ENSO conditions can influence coastal flooding risk.
El Niño and Flood Risk
Article link | National Weather Service | NOAA | Undated
The National Weather Service provides flood safety information relevant to regions where El Niño can raise odds of heavy precipitation.
Drought, Rainfall Deficits, and Water Security
El Niño Will Unleash Multiple Hazards in South-West Indian Ocean Region
Article link | World Meteorological Organization | WMO | October 1, 2026
WMO summarizes the regional outlook for October 2026–March 2027, identifying increased drought risk in South Africa, southern and central Mozambique, Malawi, and southwestern Madagascar. Drought and above-normal temperatures could reduce agricultural productivity, damage pasture, and strain water supplies. Risks vary within countries: northern Malawi and northern and eastern Madagascar may experience wetter conditions.
El Niño Strength Doesn't Always Match Impact on Australia
Article link | Bureau of Meteorology | Australian Government | Updated September 28, 2026
Australia's Bureau of Meteorology explains that El Niño can increase drying and drought risk, but its strength does not directly determine local impacts. The article describes below-average rainfall prospects for parts of southeastern Australia alongside wetter prospects elsewhere. Existing water storage, earlier rainfall, surrounding ocean temperatures, and other climate influences affect how seriously communities experience water shortages.
Global Weather Hazards: Drought Expanding in Parts of Central America
Article link | Famine Early Warning Systems Network | FEWS NET | Outlook period September 17–23, 2026
This weekly hazards assessment identifies expanding drought in parts of Central America alongside abnormal heat affecting several tropical regions. It provides evidence of developing conditions during the strengthening El Niño, complementing longer-range forecasts. Because this is a dated weekly assessment, it should be retained as a historical snapshot rather than presented as a current warning.
As El Niño Strengthens, What Could It Mean for Food Production in South America?
Article link | Cassidy Ochoa | FEWS NET | September 14, 2026
This analysis discusses projected rainfall deficits in parts of Colombia, Venezuela, Brazil, and Bolivia, with potential consequences for rain-fed agriculture. It highlights the vulnerability of crops such as potatoes and quinoa in Bolivia's Altiplano. Although published in September, the article draws on July-issued forecast guidance, so its projections should be read alongside newer regional outlooks.
Forecast El Niño-Related Below-Average Rainfall Likely to Impact Livelihoods and Markets
Article link | Famine Early Warning Systems Network | FEWS NET | September 2026
FEWS NET anticipates an erratic start to Zimbabwe's November–March rainy season, below-average rainfall, and above-average temperatures through at least January. Rainfall deficits could limit pasture and water replenishment, while agricultural uncertainty and rising staple-food prices threaten household food access. The report also describes preparations including drought-tolerant crops, fodder storage, and measures to strengthen grain supplies.
Historically Poor Kiremt Rainfall Linked to El Niño Drives Meher Crop Losses
Article link | Famine Early Warning Systems Network | FEWS NET | August 2026
FEWS NET reports severe rainfall deficits and exceptional drought conditions across much of Ethiopia's kiremt-growing areas. Poor rains have delayed planting and damaged crop conditions, particularly in northern, central, and eastern areas. The outlook connects these observed deficits with anticipated harvest losses and food-security pressures extending into January 2027.
El Niño Expected to Trigger Severe Global Droughts
Article link | IHE Delft Institute for Water Education | IHE Delft | June 17, 2026
Water experts warned that El Niño could reduce rainfall, river flows, and reservoir levels in drought-prone regions during the 2026–27 season.
El Niño and Water Security
Article link | UN-Water | United Nations | 2026
UN-Water provides resources on water scarcity, drought, floods, and climate variability, including risks heightened during El Niño events.
El Niño and Drought Monitoring
Article link | National Integrated Drought Information System | NOAA | 2026
NOAA's drought portal provides monitoring and outlook tools for drought risks that can be influenced by El Niño and other climate patterns.
Weather, Climate, Health, and Hazard Impacts
Climate Patterns May Shape Where Violent Conflict Risks Are Amplified
Article link | Phys.org | Phys.org | May 11, 2026
Researchers examined how ENSO and the Indian Ocean Dipole may influence climate stresses that intersect with conflict risk in vulnerable regions.
El Niño and Climate Services
Article link | World Meteorological Organization | WMO | 2026
WMO explains how climate services convert El Niño forecasts into warnings for agriculture, health, water, energy, and disaster preparedness.
El Niño and Global Temperature Records
Article link | NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies | NASA | 2026
NASA temperature datasets help scientists evaluate how El Niño events combine with long-term warming to influence global temperature records.
El Niño and Climate Change
Article link | Carbon Brief | Carbon Brief | Undated
Carbon Brief explains how El Niño works, how it affects global weather, and what scientists know about links between ENSO and climate change.
El Niño, La Niña, and the Southern Oscillation
Article link | Met Office | Met Office | Undated
The Met Office explains how El Niño and La Niña form in the tropical Pacific and how they influence weather patterns worldwide.
El Niño and La Niña: What They Mean for Weather
Article link | NOAA Education | NOAA | Undated
NOAA Education provides a plain-language explanation of El Niño, La Niña, and how tropical Pacific changes affect global weather.
Recent ENSO History, 2022–2025
A Subtle Return of La Niña
Article link | NASA | Phys.org | December 16, 2025
NASA reported a weak La Niña in late 2025, setting the stage for later monitoring of tropical Pacific changes toward El Niño.
Sentinel-6B Launches to Extend Sea Level Measurements
Article link | Jet Propulsion Laboratory | NASA/JPL | November 16, 2025
NASA and partners launched Sentinel-6B to continue precise sea-level measurements used in climate, ocean, and El Niño monitoring.
April 2025 ENSO Update: La Niña Has Ended
Article link | Emily Becker | NOAA Climate.gov | April 10, 2025
NOAA reported that the short-lived La Niña had ended and that the tropical Pacific returned to ENSO-neutral conditions.
March 2025 ENSO Update: Neutral Conditions Expected Soon
Article link | Emily Becker | NOAA Climate.gov | March 13, 2025
NOAA explained why forecasters expected La Niña to fade and neutral conditions to return in spring 2025.
February 2025 La Niña Update: La Niña Today, Gone Tomorrow?
Article link | Emily Becker | NOAA Climate.gov | February 13, 2025
NOAA described a weak, short-lived La Niña and its expected transition back toward neutral Pacific conditions.
La Niña Is Here
Article link | NASA Earth Observatory | NASA | February 7, 2025
NASA explained the weak La Niña that emerged in the tropical Pacific after the 2023–24 El Niño faded.
2024 Was the Warmest Year on Record
Article link | NASA Earth Observatory | NASA | January 11, 2025
NASA reported that 2024 was the warmest year on record, with the previous El Niño contributing to exceptional global heat.
January 2025 Update: La Niña Is Here
Article link | Emily Becker | NOAA Climate.gov | January 9, 2025
NOAA announced that La Niña conditions had emerged, though the event was expected to remain weak.
December 2024 ENSO Update: Party Time, Excellent
Article link | Emily Becker | NOAA Climate.gov | December 12, 2024
NOAA discussed neutral ENSO conditions and the uncertain outlook after the 2023–24 El Niño.
November 2024 ENSO Update: Ask Me Anything
Article link | Emily Becker | NOAA Climate.gov | November 14, 2024
NOAA answered ENSO questions as forecasters watched for possible weak La Niña development.
October 2024 ENSO Update: Spooky Season
Article link | Emily Becker | NOAA Climate.gov | October 10, 2024
NOAA explained why La Niña remained favored later in 2024 after the end of El Niño.
September 2024 ENSO Update: Binge Watch
Article link | Emily Becker | NOAA Climate.gov | September 12, 2024
NOAA tracked the Pacific transition after El Niño and discussed the odds of La Niña emerging.
El Niño Exits
Article link | NASA Earth Observatory | NASA | July 15, 2024
NASA described the end of the 2023–24 El Niño and its role in ocean warmth, drought, and precipitation extremes.
July 2024 ENSO Update: Summer Vacation
Article link | Emily Becker | NOAA Climate.gov | July 11, 2024
NOAA reported that El Niño had ended and La Niña was favored for the following winter.
June 2024 Update: La Niña Likely by Late Summer
Article link | Emily Becker | NOAA Climate.gov | June 13, 2024
NOAA explained the expected transition from El Niño to La Niña after neutral conditions in 2024.
May 2024 ENSO Update: We’re 10
Article link | Emily Becker | NOAA Climate.gov | May 9, 2024
NOAA marked ten years of ENSO blog updates while discussing the fading 2023–24 El Niño.
Untangling the Winter 2023–24 Precipitation Forecast
Article link | NOAA Climate.gov | NOAA | April 25, 2024
NOAA reviewed why winter precipitation during the 2023–24 El Niño differed from classic forecast patterns in some areas.
El Niño, Ocean Heat, and Coral Reefs
Article link | NOAA | NOAA | April 2024
NOAA confirmed a global coral bleaching event driven by ocean heat, showing the kinds of marine ecosystem risks that can worsen during El Niño periods.
January 2024 El Niño Update: For the Birds
Article link | Emily Becker | NOAA Climate.gov | January 11, 2024
NOAA reported that the 2023–24 El Niño was near peak strength and likely to continue for several months before weakening.
December 2023 El Niño Update: Adventure
Article link | Emily Becker | NOAA Climate.gov | December 13, 2023
NOAA reported that El Niño was strong and had a chance to become historically strong during winter.
Sea Level Satellites Monitor How This Year’s El Niño Is Shaping Up
Article link | NASA Earthdata | NASA | October 31, 2023
NASA Earthdata compared sea level satellite observations from past El Niño events to show how the 2023 event was developing.
August 2023 El Niño Update: Back to School
Article link | Emily Becker | NOAA Climate.gov | August 10, 2023
NOAA explained why El Niño was very likely to continue through winter and what forecasters were watching.
Has Climate Change Already Affected ENSO?
Article link | NOAA Climate.gov | NOAA | July 27, 2023
NOAA reviewed scientific evidence about whether human-caused climate change has already altered El Niño and La Niña behavior.
July 2023 El Niño Update: Learning the Steps
Article link | Emily Becker | NOAA Climate.gov | July 13, 2023
NOAA explained why forecasters were confident that El Niño would continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter.
Pacific Ocean Conditions Favorable for Winter 2023–24 El Niño Development
Article link | NASA Earthdata | NASA | June 15, 2023
NASA Earthdata showed how satellite sea surface height and sea surface temperature data help monitor El Niño development.
June 2023 ENSO Update: El Niño Is Here
Article link | Emily Becker | NOAA Climate.gov | June 8, 2023
NOAA declared the arrival of El Niño in 2023 and explained its likely persistence through winter.
International Sea Level Satellite Spots Early Signs of El Niño
Article link | NASA/JPL | Phys.org | May 15, 2023
Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich detected Kelvin waves moving across the Pacific, providing early satellite evidence of developing El Niño conditions.
International Sea Level Satellite Spots Early Signs of El Niño
Article link | Jet Propulsion Laboratory | NASA/JPL | May 12, 2023
JPL reported that sea level satellite data showed Kelvin waves associated with warmer water moving eastward toward South America.
May 2023 ENSO Update: El Niño Knocking on the Door
Article link | Emily Becker | NOAA Climate.gov | May 11, 2023
NOAA kept an El Niño Watch in place as Pacific conditions became increasingly favorable for development.
April 2023 ENSO Update: El Niño Watch
Article link | Emily Becker | NOAA Climate.gov | April 13, 2023
NOAA issued an El Niño Watch, meaning conditions favored El Niño development within the next six months.
March 2023 ENSO Update: No More La Niña
Article link | Emily Becker | NOAA Climate.gov | March 9, 2023
NOAA reported that the long-running La Niña had ended, opening the possibility of later El Niño development.
February 2023 ENSO Update: The ENSO Blog Investigates
Article link | NOAA Climate.gov | NOAA | February 8, 2023
NOAA examined the developing ENSO outlook and the possibility that El Niño could form later in 2023.
October 2022 La Niña Update: Snack Size
Article link | Emily Becker | NOAA Climate.gov | October 13, 2022
NOAA discussed the persistence of La Niña and how repeated cool-phase events affect seasonal climate expectations.
March 2022 La Niña Update: Three-Bean Salad
Article link | Emily Becker | NOAA Climate.gov | March 10, 2022
NOAA explained continuing La Niña conditions and the longer-term ENSO outlook after multiple cool-season events.
Reference, Data, and Monitoring Resources
Climate Bulletins
Article link | Copernicus Climate Change Service | Copernicus | 2026
Copernicus climate bulletins track global temperature, sea surface temperature, sea ice, and tropical Pacific conditions relevant to El Niño monitoring.
NOAA Oceanic Niño Index
Article link | NOAA Climate Prediction Center | NOAA | 2026
NOAA's Oceanic Niño Index provides the official historical record used to classify El Niño and La Niña episodes.
Multivariate ENSO Index
Article link | NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory | NOAA | 2026
NOAA's Multivariate ENSO Index combines several ocean-atmosphere variables to describe the strength and evolution of ENSO events.
World Meteorological Organization El Niño/La Niña Update
Article link | World Meteorological Organization | WMO | 2026
WMO explains global El Niño and La Niña monitoring, seasonal forecast updates, and international warnings about climate impacts.
Global Seasonal Climate Update
Article link | World Meteorological Organization | WMO | 2026
WMO's seasonal climate update summarizes global temperature and rainfall outlooks influenced by ENSO and other large-scale climate drivers.
ENSO and Seasonal Forecast Skill
Article link | European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts | ECMWF | 2026
ECMWF seasonal charts help track forecast patterns influenced by El Niño, including temperature, rainfall, and sea surface temperature anomalies.
El Niño and U.S. Seasonal Outlooks
Article link | NOAA Climate Prediction Center | NOAA | 2026
NOAA seasonal outlooks translate ENSO forecasts into probabilities for temperature and precipitation across the United States.
El Niño and Australia’s Climate Outlook
Article link | Bureau of Meteorology | Australian Government | 2026
Australia's Bureau of Meteorology tracks ENSO status and explains how El Niño can influence heat, rainfall, drought, and bushfire risk.
El Niño and Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures
Article link | Bureau of Meteorology | Australian Government | 2026
Australian ocean monitoring products show sea surface temperature anomalies across the Pacific, a key indicator of El Niño strength.
El Niño and New Zealand Climate Outlooks
Article link | National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research | NIWA | 2026
NIWA seasonal outlooks help show how El Niño can influence rainfall, temperature, and wind patterns around New Zealand.
El Niño and Global Climate Monitoring
Article link | NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information | NOAA | 2026
NOAA monthly global climate reports track temperature, precipitation, and ocean conditions during El Niño and other major climate events.
What Is the El Niño–Southern Oscillation in a Nutshell?
Article link | NOAA Climate.gov | NOAA | Undated
NOAA explains ENSO as a coupled ocean-atmosphere pattern with El Niño and La Niña phases that shift global rainfall and temperature patterns.
El Niño and La Niña
Article link | NOAA Climate.gov | NOAA | Undated
NOAA provides a general guide to El Niño, La Niña, ENSO-neutral conditions, and the global effects of tropical Pacific climate shifts.
El Niño / Southern Oscillation Monitoring
Article link | NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information | NOAA | Undated
NOAA's NCEI page tracks current ENSO status and provides access to monitoring data, indices, and official outlooks.
El Niño Southern Oscillation Dashboard
Article link | Copernicus Marine Service | Copernicus | Undated
Copernicus provides an interactive dashboard for tracking ENSO-related sea surface temperature and ocean indicators.
Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly
Article link | NASA Earth Observatory | NASA | Undated
NASA's global sea surface temperature anomaly maps help show the ocean warming patterns that define El Niño and La Niña events.
El Niño
Article link | NASA Science | NASA | Undated
NASA's El Niño topic page collects satellite observations, Earth Observatory articles, and mission resources about the ENSO cycle.
Ocean Surface Topography From Space
Article link | Jet Propulsion Laboratory | NASA/JPL | Undated
NASA's ocean surface topography portal explains how satellite altimetry tracks sea level, ocean circulation, and El Niño-related warm water movement.
Altimetric and Ocean Surface Topography Data Information
Article link | Physical Oceanography Distributed Active Archive Center | NASA/JPL | Undated
NASA's PO.DAAC explains altimetry datasets used to monitor ocean height, sea level, and ENSO-linked ocean changes.
ENSO and Global Climate Impacts
Article link | NOAA Climate.gov | NOAA | Undated
NOAA answers common questions about how El Niño and La Niña affect temperature, precipitation, storms, drought, and seasonal outlooks.
El Niño Impacts on Fisheries and Marine Ecosystems
Article link | NOAA Fisheries | NOAA | Undated
NOAA explains how marine heatwaves, often intensified during El Niño periods, affect fisheries, marine mammals, seabirds, and ocean ecosystems.
Marine Heatwave Tracker
Article link | NOAA Integrated Ecosystem Assessment | NOAA | Undated
NOAA's marine heatwave tracker monitors warm ocean anomalies in the California Current, helping scientists assess ecosystem risks during El Niño years.
El Niño and Coral Bleaching
Article link | NOAA Coral Reef Watch | NOAA | Undated
NOAA Coral Reef Watch tracks ocean heat stress and coral bleaching risk, which can intensify during El Niño and marine heatwave conditions.
NASA Sea Level Change Portal
Article link | NASA Sea Level Change Team | NASA | Undated
NASA's sea level portal explains satellite measurements of ocean height, including data useful for tracking El Niño-related warm water movement.
Copernicus Marine Ocean Monitoring Indicators
Article link | Copernicus Marine Service | Copernicus | Undated
Copernicus indicators provide ocean heat, sea level, and temperature datasets used to monitor ENSO and broader ocean climate change.
Copernicus Climate Data Store
Article link | Copernicus Climate Change Service | Copernicus | Undated
Copernicus data products support climate analysis of sea surface temperature, ocean heat, and atmospheric conditions linked to El Niño.
NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory ENSO Resources
Article link | NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory | NOAA | Undated
NOAA PSL provides ENSO datasets, maps, and research resources for studying El Niño, La Niña, and global climate teleconnections.
NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO Monitoring
Article link | NOAA Climate Prediction Center | NOAA | Undated
NOAA CPC provides maps and monitoring products showing tropical Pacific sea surface temperature, winds, and atmospheric patterns.
El Niño and Ocean Data From Space
Article link | NASA Earthdata | NASA | Undated
NASA Earthdata provides ocean datasets from satellites that help scientists monitor sea surface temperature, sea surface height, and El Niño changes.
El Niño and Earth System Forecasting
Article link | NOAA | NOAA | Undated
NOAA research laboratories study ocean-atmosphere interactions, climate prediction, and the forecasting systems used to anticipate El Niño impacts.
Historical Background and Satellite Archives
Impacts of El Niño and La Niña on the Hurricane Season
Article link | NOAA Climate.gov | NOAA | May 30, 2014
NOAA explains how El Niño and La Niña influence Atlantic and Pacific hurricane activity through wind shear and atmospheric circulation.
Where Is La Niña?
Article link | NASA Earth Observatory | NASA | July 3, 2003
NASA used sea surface height data to explain quiet tropical Pacific conditions and the relationship between ocean height and ENSO phases.
El Niño’s Extended Family
Article link | NASA Earth Observatory | NASA | November 8, 1999
NASA explains the wider family of cyclic climate patterns that influence global weather, including El Niño and related ocean-atmosphere interactions.
The Color of El Niño
Article link | NASA Earth Observatory | NASA | August 19, 1999
NASA describes how satellite ocean-color observations help reveal biological and oceanographic changes linked to El Niño.
