El Niño Is Underway, Satellite Observations Show
Current Status and Forecasts
- Official Declaration: NOAA forecasters officially declared the arrival of El Niño on June 11, 2026, noting that conditions are already present and expected to strengthen into the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2026–27.
- Anticipated Strength: Models and researchers suggest the event could reach a moderate or strong phase by fall. Some forecasts indicate a high probability of a "very strong" or even "historic" event, with potential to rank among the strongest on record.
- Satellite Observations: NASA’s Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich satellite has detected warm Kelvin waves moving eastward across the Pacific, a classic precursor and indicator of a developing El Niño.
Record-Breaking Ocean Warmth
- Unprecedented Temperatures: Ocean surface temperatures reached record highs in June 2026, following an exceptionally warm May.
- Compounding Factors: Scientists warn that these record-breaking sea temperatures, combined with the developing El Niño, are pushing the world into "uncharted waters" regarding climate instability.
Projected Global Impacts
The following risks have been identified across several sectors:
- Food Security and Economy: The event arrives during a fragile period for global food security. Drought risks are high for major agricultural regions, potentially impacting tropical commodities such as coffee, cocoa, sugar, and palm oil. In Brazil, economists anticipate El Niño-related food price shocks could drive up inflation.
- Extreme Weather: There are increased risks of heatwaves, severe droughts, and heavy rainfall. Specifically, India has warned of below-average monsoon rains, while Papua New Guinea faces potential food shortages due to drought and frost.
- Marine Ecosystems: El Niño is expected to trigger marine heatwaves, which threaten West Coast species like salmon and squid and can lead to major ocean nutrient stress and coral bleaching.
- Coastal Risks: The phenomenon may alter regional sea levels, worsening high-tide flooding in some coastal communities.
- Tropical Cyclones: Conversely, El Niño may reduce Atlantic hurricane activity by increasing wind shear, though it often shifts storm patterns elsewhere.
Scientific and Historical Context
- Climate Change Amplification: Researchers emphasize that human-driven global warming may amplify the risks of El Niño, making its effects—such as extreme heat and rainfall—more intense than in the past.
- Recent ENSO Cycle: This event follows a weak and short-lived La Niña that ended in early 2025, which had temporarily slowed global sea-level rise. The current transition back to a strong El Niño follows 2024 being recorded as the warmest year on record.
El Niño Development, Forecasts, and Official Updates
ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
Article link | NOAA Climate Prediction Center | NOAA | June 29, 2026
NOAA's weekly ENSO update summarizes observed ocean-atmosphere changes, model forecasts, and the likely persistence of El Niño into winter.
Super El Niños May Lose Their Punch in a Warming World
Article link | Geophysical Research Letters | Phys.org | June 16, 2026
Researchers modeled how intense eastern Pacific El Niño events may change as the global climate warms.
El Niño Forms, Expected to Strengthen, Say NOAA Forecasters
Article link | NOAA | NOAA | June 11, 2026
NOAA declared that El Niño had formed and forecast that the event could strengthen into a moderate or strong phase by fall and winter.
Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion
Article link | NOAA Climate Prediction Center | NOAA | June 11, 2026
NOAA's official ENSO discussion states that El Niño conditions are present and expected to strengthen into the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2026–27.
Seasonal Forecasts Point Toward Large El Niño Event
Article link | Copernicus Climate Change Service | Copernicus | June 10, 2026
Copernicus seasonal forecasts show a strong signal for a large El Niño event developing later in 2026.
What Is Godzilla El Niño?
Article link | The Conversation | Phys.org | June 4, 2026
Scientists explain why dramatic labels like “Godzilla El Niño” can be misleading, emphasizing that El Niño raises risks rather than guaranteeing specific outcomes.
A Very Strong El Niño Is Approaching
Article link | The Conversation | Phys.org | June 3, 2026
Researchers describe what a very strong El Niño could mean for drought, rainfall, heat, and regional climate impacts around the world.
Warming El Niño Set to Return in Mid-2026
Article link | AFP | Phys.org | April 24, 2026
The World Meteorological Organization said El Niño was likely to return in mid-2026, with potential impacts on global heat and rainfall patterns.
El Niño Season Predicted to Start as Early as Next Month
Article link | World Meteorological Organization | Phys.org | April 24, 2026
WMO forecasts suggested that El Niño could begin as early as May to July 2026 as tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures rose rapidly.
Simple Ocean-Based Model Forecasts a Powerful El Niño
Article link | University of Hawaiʻi | Phys.org | April 21, 2026
Researchers report that an ocean-based ENSO model forecasts a powerful El Niño, offering useful warning for governments and communities.
Pacific Ocean Warming Signals Possible Return of Strong El Niño
Article link | Met Office | Met Office | April 15, 2026
The UK Met Office explains signs of tropical Pacific warming and why an emerging El Niño could affect weather patterns far beyond the Pacific.
El Niño Prediction Based on Weather Forecast and Geographical Time-Series Data
Article link | Viet Trinh et al. | arXiv | April 5, 2026
Researchers proposed a deep-learning framework using weather forecasts and geographical time-series data to improve El Niño prediction.
Climate Network and Complexity-Based ENSO Forecast for 2026
Article link | Josef Ludescher et al. | arXiv | February 16, 2026
Researchers tested climate-network and complexity methods for forecasting the 2026 ENSO state, showing how difficult early El Niño prediction can be.
Official NOAA CPC ENSO Probabilities
Article link | NOAA Climate Prediction Center | NOAA | June 2026
NOAA's probability outlook shows El Niño strongly favored through winter, based on climate models, observations, and expert assessment.
Official NOAA CPC ENSO Strength Probabilities
Article link | NOAA Climate Prediction Center | NOAA | June 2026
NOAA's ENSO strength outlook estimates the chances of weak, moderate, strong, and very strong El Niño conditions across upcoming seasons.
ENSO Forecast
Article link | International Research Institute for Climate and Society | Columbia Climate School | June 2026
IRI provides probabilistic ENSO forecasts using model guidance and observed Pacific ocean-atmosphere conditions.
Experimental Seasonal Forecasts
Article link | NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory | NOAA | June 2026
NOAA GFDL's SPEAR forecast system shows model projections for ENSO development, including uncertainty in future El Niño strength.
El Niño Is Underway, Satellite Observations Show
Article link | NASA | Phys.org | June 21, 2026
NASA satellite observations show that El Niño conditions are developing, with sea-surface-height patterns indicating changes in the tropical Pacific.
El Niño Is Underway
Article link | NASA Earth Observatory | NASA | June 18, 2026
NASA Earth Observatory reports that Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich detected higher-than-normal sea surfaces in the central and eastern Pacific as El Niño strengthened.
El Niño Arrives and Could Rank Among Strongest Events
Article link | AFP | Phys.org | June 13, 2026
Scientists warned that the newly declared El Niño could become very strong, with potential global effects on drought, rainfall, and heat.
El Niño Is Here and Scientists Fear It’ll Be Big, Bad and Costly
Article link | Associated Press | Phys.org | June 11, 2026
Scientists cautioned that the 2026 El Niño could become one of the strongest on record and bring major economic and humanitarian impacts.
Odds Climb for Record El Niño as Models Predict Strong Warming
Article link | AFP | Phys.org | June 10, 2026
Climate model forecasts raised the odds of a major El Niño event, with scientists warning of possible impacts on heat, rainfall, drought, and food systems.
Are We Heading Toward a Super El Niño in 2026?
Article link | Zero Carbon Analytics | Zero Carbon Analytics | 2026
Analysts summarize the evidence for a possible strong El Niño and explain how climate change can amplify its risks.
Current ENSO Alert System Status
Article link | NOAA Climate Prediction Center | NOAA | 2026
NOAA's ENSO advisory page provides official updates on whether El Niño, La Niña, or neutral conditions are present.
NOAA El Niño and La Niña Current Conditions
Article link | NOAA Climate Prediction Center | NOAA | 2026
NOAA tracks weekly sea surface temperature, wind, cloud, and subsurface ocean conditions across the tropical Pacific.
Ocean Heat, Satellites, Sea Level, and Marine Ecosystems
Ocean Surface Temperatures Hit Record High for June
Article link | The Guardian | The Guardian | July 1, 2026
Ocean surface temperatures reached record levels for June as scientists warned that extreme ocean warmth and developing El Niño conditions could intensify global climate risks.
Record Sea Temperatures in June Push World Into Uncharted Waters
Article link | Financial Times | Financial Times | July 1, 2026
Global sea temperatures surged to record June levels, raising concern that El Niño and long-term ocean warming may amplify storms, heat waves, and climate instability.
Ocean Health Bulletin: El Niño June 2026
Article link | Copernicus Marine Service | Copernicus | June 22, 2026
Copernicus Marine reports above-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific as climate scientists confirm El Niño conditions.
Explainer: Why a Strong El Niño Leaves Tropical Commodities Exposed
Article link | Reuters | Reuters | June 18, 2026
Reuters explains why crops such as coffee, cocoa, sugar, and palm oil are vulnerable to rainfall shifts linked to strong El Niño events.
El Niño Is Back, and Ocean Temperatures Are Already Near Record Highs
Article link | The Conversation | Phys.org | June 15, 2026
A climate scientist explains how El Niño can trigger marine heatwaves and disrupt fisheries, corals, and ocean ecosystems.
El Niño and Large Marine Heatwave Could Affect West Coast Species
Article link | NOAA Fisheries | NOAA | June 12, 2026
NOAA Fisheries explains how El Niño and a large marine heatwave may affect salmon, squid, seabirds, and other West Coast marine species.
Surging Tropical Pacific Ocean Surface Temperatures and Early European Heatwave
Article link | Copernicus Climate Change Service | Copernicus | June 11, 2026
Copernicus reports rapid warming in the tropical Pacific as the ocean shifts toward El Niño conditions, alongside early-season European heat extremes.
Second-Highest Surface Air and Sea Surface Temperatures for May Globally
Article link | Copernicus Climate Change Service | Copernicus | June 10, 2026
Copernicus reported exceptional tropical Pacific warmth in May as the equatorial Pacific continued its transition toward El Niño.
Sea Surface Height Anomaly, 2026
Article link | NASA Scientific Visualization Studio | NASA | June 9, 2026
NASA visualizations show sea surface height anomalies linked to warmer water and developing El Niño conditions in the eastern equatorial Pacific.
NASA Satellites Reveal Major Ocean Nutrient Stress
Article link | NASA | Phys.org | June 8, 2026
NASA satellite analysis finds ocean nutrient stress linked to warming waters and major climate cycles including El Niño and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.
International Sea Level Satellite Observes El Niño Precursor
Article link | Jet Propulsion Laboratory | NASA/JPL | June 2, 2026
JPL imagery shows a warm Kelvin wave moving eastward across the Pacific, a classic oceanic precursor to El Niño development.
How Does El Niño Impact Atlantic Hurricane Season?
Article link | NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory | NOAA | June 2, 2026
NOAA explains how El Niño can increase wind shear over the Atlantic and reduce the odds of some tropical cyclone development.
NASA-European Sea Level Mission Homes in on El Niño
Article link | Jet Propulsion Laboratory | NASA/JPL | May 27, 2026
NASA and European partners report that Sentinel-6 observed warm Kelvin waves crossing the Pacific ahead of a likely El Niño.
A Giant Warm Wave Is Crossing the Pacific
Article link | NASA | Phys.org | May 27, 2026
Satellite data show a warm Kelvin wave moving eastward across the Pacific, signaling ocean changes that often precede El Niño.
What Scientists Know About a Potential Super El Niño
Article link | AFP | Phys.org | May 22, 2026
Scientists discuss the evidence for a possible strong El Niño, including rising Pacific sea temperatures and a large reservoir of subsurface heat.
El Niño and High Tide Flooding, a Possible Double Whammy
Article link | NOAA Ocean Service | NOAA | May 15, 2026
NOAA warns that El Niño could worsen high-tide flooding in some coastal communities by altering regional sea levels and storm patterns.
Second-Highest Sea Surface Temperatures Recorded During Third-Warmest April Globally
Article link | Copernicus Climate Change Service | Copernicus | May 8, 2026
Copernicus reported near-record sea surface temperatures and tropical Pacific marine heatwaves as the ocean moved toward El Niño conditions.
West Coast Waters Experiencing Another Large Marine Heatwave
Article link | NOAA Fisheries | NOAA | March 3, 2026
NOAA scientists tracked a large West Coast marine heatwave that could interact with El Niño to affect ecosystems and fisheries.
NASA Analysis Shows La Niña Limited Sea Level Rise in 2025
Article link | Jet Propulsion Laboratory | NASA/JPL | January 29, 2026
NASA analysis found that La Niña conditions affected rainfall and temporarily slowed global mean sea level rise in 2025.
Daily Global Sea Surface Temperatures Break Records
Article link | Copernicus Climate Change Service | Copernicus | July 2026
Copernicus reports record daily sea surface temperatures and warns that El Niño and ocean heat could contribute to further climate extremes.
Annual High Tide Flooding Outlook
Article link | NOAA Tides and Currents | NOAA | 2026
NOAA's high-tide flooding outlook explains how sea level, tides, storms, and ENSO conditions can influence coastal flooding risk.
Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich Mission
Article link | NASA | NASA | NASA
NASA describes the Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich satellite mission, which measures sea surface height and helps monitor El Niño and global sea level.
Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich Stories
Article link | Jet Propulsion Laboratory | NASA/JPL | NASA/JPL
JPL provides mission information and updates on the satellite used to observe sea level patterns linked to El Niño development.
El Niño and Ocean Heat Content
Article link | NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information | NOAA | 2026
NOAA ocean heat content data help researchers track subsurface warming that can fuel El Niño development and marine heatwaves.
El Niño and Subsurface Pacific Heat
Article link | NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory | NOAA | NOAA
NOAA's Tropical Atmosphere Ocean array measures sea temperature, winds, and subsurface heat across the equatorial Pacific, supporting ENSO monitoring.
TAO/TRITON Tropical Pacific Observing System
Article link | NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory | NOAA | NOAA
NOAA's tropical moored buoy system provides ocean-atmosphere measurements central to detecting El Niño and La Niña changes.
Food Security, Drought, Water, and Economic Risks
India Warns of Below-Average July Monsoon Rains After Dry June
Article link | Reuters | Reuters | June 30, 2026
Indian forecasters warned that strengthening El Niño conditions could suppress monsoon rainfall, threatening crop planting, water supplies, and food security.
El Niño Is Coming. At the FAO We Know Where Drought Will Hit Hardest
Article link | Reuters | Reuters | June 29, 2026
FAO experts warned that the 2026 El Niño is arriving during a fragile period for global food security, with drought risks concentrated in vulnerable farming regions.
Papua New Guinea at Risk of Food Shortages as El Niño Brings Frost and Drought
Article link | The Guardian | The Guardian | June 25, 2026
El Niño-linked drought and frost threatened food gardens and water supplies in Papua New Guinea, raising concerns about hunger and rural hardship.
Economists See El Niño Lifting Brazil Inflation
Article link | Reuters | Reuters | June 24, 2026
Economists warned that El Niño-related drought and food price shocks could raise Brazil's inflation in 2026 and 2027.
Summer’s Silent Killer: Why the World’s Heat Waves Are a Global Risk
Article link | Phys.org | Phys.org | June 23, 2026
Article explains how El Niño can add to long-term global warming and raise risks of extreme heat, drought, or heavy rainfall in some regions.
El Niño Is Coming. Here Is Where the Risks to Agriculture Are Highest
Article link | FAO | Food and Agriculture Organization | June 22, 2026
FAO maps regions where El Niño-linked drought could threaten crops and pasturelands, highlighting risks to food systems already stressed by climate shocks.
Emerging 2026 El Niño: Potential Implications for Agriculture and Food Security
Article link | ReliefWeb | ReliefWeb | June 18, 2026
Humanitarian agencies assessed how the emerging 2026 El Niño could affect crops, livestock, food security, and anticipatory action planning.
El Niño Expected to Trigger Severe Global Droughts
Article link | IHE Delft Institute for Water Education | IHE Delft | June 17, 2026
Water experts warned that El Niño could reduce rainfall, river flows, and reservoir levels in drought-prone regions during the 2026–27 season.
Potentially Historic El Niño to Come, Analysis Shows Humanitarian Toll
Article link | Joint Research Centre | European Commission | June 15, 2026
European analysts warn that a potentially historic El Niño could worsen drought, flood, heat, and storm conditions in vulnerable regions.
UN Warns World to Prepare for El Niño Extreme Weather
Article link | AFP | Phys.org | June 2, 2026
The World Meteorological Organization warned that El Niño could increase risks of heat waves, drought, heavy rainfall, and other weather extremes.
A Strong El Niño May Be Imminent. Climate Change Will Make Its Effects Worse
Article link | Reuters | Reuters | June 3, 2026
Reuters explains how a developing El Niño could combine with climate change to raise global temperatures and worsen weather extremes.
El Niño May Return in 2026 and Make Planet Even Hotter
Article link | AFP | Phys.org | March 2, 2026
Early forecasts suggested El Niño could return in 2026 and add short-term warming on top of long-term human-driven climate change.
The 2026 El Niño and the Risk to Crops and Food Prices
Article link | Wikifarmer | Wikifarmer | 2026
Article explains how El Niño can affect rainfall, crops, livestock, and food prices in major agricultural regions.
El Niño and Global Food Security
Article link | Food and Agriculture Organization | FAO | FAO
FAO provides resources on how El Niño affects crops, livestock, fisheries, food prices, and early warning systems.
El Niño and Disaster Preparedness
Article link | United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs | OCHA | 2026
OCHA tracks humanitarian risks from El Niño-related drought, flooding, storms, and food insecurity in vulnerable countries.
El Niño and Anticipatory Action
Article link | Anticipation Hub | Anticipation Hub | 2026
Anticipation Hub collects early action resources for climate shocks, including El Niño-related drought, floods, and food security crises.
El Niño and Public Health Risks
Article link | World Health Organization | WHO | WHO
WHO summarizes health risks linked to El Niño, including heat stress, infectious disease, food insecurity, and disaster impacts.
El Niño and Humanitarian Early Warning
Article link | Famine Early Warning Systems Network | FEWS NET | 2026
FEWS NET monitors food security risks that can worsen during El Niño-related droughts, floods, and crop failures.
El Niño and Water Security
Article link | UN-Water | United Nations | 2026
UN-Water provides resources on water scarcity, drought, floods, and climate variability, including risks heightened during El Niño events.
El Niño and Drought Monitoring
Article link | National Integrated Drought Information System | NOAA | 2026
NOAA's drought portal provides monitoring and outlook tools for drought risks that can be influenced by El Niño and other climate patterns.
El Niño and Flood Risk
Article link | National Weather Service | NOAA | NOAA
The National Weather Service provides flood safety information relevant to regions where El Niño can raise odds of heavy precipitation.
El Niño and Heat Risk
Article link | National Weather Service | NOAA | NOAA
NOAA provides heat safety guidance for periods when El Niño and long-term warming can increase the odds of extreme heat in some regions.
El Niño and Pacific Island Climate Impacts
Article link | Pacific Climate Change Portal | Pacific Regional Environment Programme | 2026
Pacific climate resources track drought, rainfall, and food security risks that can intensify across island communities during El Niño.
El Niño and African Climate Risk
Article link | IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre | ICPAC | 2026
ICPAC provides climate outlooks for East Africa, where El Niño can shift rainfall patterns and increase flood or drought risk.
El Niño and Southern Africa Food Security
Article link | Southern African Development Community | SADC | 2026
SADC climate and food security resources help track regional risks from El Niño-linked drought and rainfall deficits.
El Niño and Peru Coastal Waters
Article link | SENAMHI | Government of Peru | 2026
Peru's weather and hydrology service monitors coastal rainfall, temperature, and flood risks that can be affected by eastern Pacific El Niño warming.
El Niño and Global Precipitation Patterns
Article link | NASA Global Precipitation Measurement Mission | NASA | NASA
NASA's precipitation mission helps track rainfall changes that may be influenced by El Niño-driven shifts in atmospheric circulation.
Weather, Climate, Health, and Hazard Impacts
Climate Patterns May Shape Where Violent Conflict Risks Are Amplified
Article link | Phys.org | Phys.org | May 11, 2026
Researchers examined how ENSO and the Indian Ocean Dipole may influence climate stresses that intersect with conflict risk in vulnerable regions.
El Niño and Climate Change
Article link | Carbon Brief | Carbon Brief | Carbon Brief
Carbon Brief explains how El Niño works, how it affects global weather, and what scientists know about links between ENSO and climate change.
El Niño, La Niña, and the Southern Oscillation
Article link | Met Office | Met Office | Met Office
The Met Office explains how El Niño and La Niña form in the tropical Pacific and how they influence weather patterns worldwide.
El Niño and La Niña: What They Mean for Weather
Article link | NOAA Education | NOAA | NOAA
NOAA Education provides a plain-language explanation of El Niño, La Niña, and how tropical Pacific changes affect global weather.
El Niño and Climate Services
Article link | World Meteorological Organization | WMO | 2026
WMO explains how climate services convert El Niño forecasts into warnings for agriculture, health, water, energy, and disaster preparedness.
El Niño and Global Temperature Records
Article link | NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies | NASA | 2026
NASA temperature datasets help scientists evaluate how El Niño events combine with long-term warming to influence global temperature records.
Recent ENSO History, 2023–2025
A Subtle Return of La Niña
Article link | NASA | Phys.org | December 16, 2025
NASA reported a weak La Niña in late 2025, setting the stage for later monitoring of tropical Pacific changes toward El Niño.
Sentinel-6B Launches to Extend Sea Level Measurements
Article link | Jet Propulsion Laboratory | NASA/JPL | November 16, 2025
NASA and partners launched Sentinel-6B to continue precise sea-level measurements used in climate, ocean, and El Niño monitoring.
April 2025 ENSO Update: La Niña Has Ended
Article link | Emily Becker | NOAA Climate.gov | April 10, 2025
NOAA reported that the short-lived La Niña had ended and that the tropical Pacific returned to ENSO-neutral conditions.
March 2025 ENSO Update: Neutral Conditions Expected Soon
Article link | Emily Becker | NOAA Climate.gov | March 13, 2025
NOAA explained why forecasters expected La Niña to fade and neutral conditions to return in spring 2025.
February 2025 La Niña Update: La Niña Today, Gone Tomorrow?
Article link | Emily Becker | NOAA Climate.gov | February 13, 2025
NOAA described a weak, short-lived La Niña and its expected transition back toward neutral Pacific conditions.
La Niña Is Here
Article link | NASA Earth Observatory | NASA | February 7, 2025
NASA explained the weak La Niña that emerged in the tropical Pacific after the 2023–24 El Niño faded.
2024 Was the Warmest Year on Record
Article link | NASA Earth Observatory | NASA | January 11, 2025
NASA reported that 2024 was the warmest year on record, with the previous El Niño contributing to exceptional global heat.
January 2025 Update: La Niña Is Here
Article link | Emily Becker | NOAA Climate.gov | January 9, 2025
NOAA announced that La Niña conditions had emerged, though the event was expected to remain weak.
December 2024 ENSO Update: Party Time, Excellent
Article link | Emily Becker | NOAA Climate.gov | December 12, 2024
NOAA discussed neutral ENSO conditions and the uncertain outlook after the 2023–24 El Niño.
November 2024 ENSO Update: Ask Me Anything
Article link | Emily Becker | NOAA Climate.gov | November 14, 2024
NOAA answered ENSO questions as forecasters watched for possible weak La Niña development.
October 2024 ENSO Update: Spooky Season
Article link | Emily Becker | NOAA Climate.gov | October 10, 2024
NOAA explained why La Niña remained favored later in 2024 after the end of El Niño.
September 2024 ENSO Update: Binge Watch
Article link | Emily Becker | NOAA Climate.gov | September 12, 2024
NOAA tracked the Pacific transition after El Niño and discussed the odds of La Niña emerging.
El Niño Exits
Article link | NASA Earth Observatory | NASA | July 15, 2024
NASA described the end of the 2023–24 El Niño and its role in ocean warmth, drought, and precipitation extremes.
July 2024 ENSO Update: Summer Vacation
Article link | Emily Becker | NOAA Climate.gov | July 11, 2024
NOAA reported that El Niño had ended and La Niña was favored for the following winter.
June 2024 Update: La Niña Likely by Late Summer
Article link | Emily Becker | NOAA Climate.gov | June 13, 2024
NOAA explained the expected transition from El Niño to La Niña after neutral conditions in 2024.
May 2024 ENSO Update: We’re 10
Article link | Emily Becker | NOAA Climate.gov | May 9, 2024
NOAA marked ten years of ENSO blog updates while discussing the fading 2023–24 El Niño.
El Niño, Ocean Heat, and Coral Reefs
Article link | NOAA | NOAA | April 2024
NOAA confirmed a global coral bleaching event driven by ocean heat, showing the kinds of marine ecosystem risks that can worsen during El Niño periods.
Untangling the Winter 2023–24 Precipitation Forecast
Article link | NOAA Climate.gov | NOAA | April 25, 2024
NOAA reviewed why winter precipitation during the 2023–24 El Niño differed from classic forecast patterns in some areas.
January 2024 El Niño Update: For the Birds
Article link | Emily Becker | NOAA Climate.gov | January 11, 2024
NOAA reported that the 2023–24 El Niño was near peak strength and likely to continue for several months before weakening.
December 2023 El Niño Update: Adventure
Article link | Emily Becker | NOAA Climate.gov | December 13, 2023
NOAA reported that El Niño was strong and had a chance to become historically strong during winter.
Sea Level Satellites Monitor How This Year’s El Niño Is Shaping Up
Article link | NASA Earthdata | NASA | October 31, 2023
NASA Earthdata compared sea level satellite observations from past El Niño events to show how the 2023 event was developing.
August 2023 El Niño Update: Back to School
Article link | Emily Becker | NOAA Climate.gov | August 10, 2023
NOAA explained why El Niño was very likely to continue through winter and what forecasters were watching.
Has Climate Change Already Affected ENSO?
Article link | NOAA Climate.gov | NOAA | July 27, 2023
NOAA reviewed scientific evidence about whether human-caused climate change has already altered El Niño and La Niña behavior.
July 2023 El Niño Update: Learning the Steps
Article link | Emily Becker | NOAA Climate.gov | July 13, 2023
NOAA explained why forecasters were confident that El Niño would continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter.
Pacific Ocean Conditions Favorable for Winter 2023–24 El Niño Development
Article link | NASA Earthdata | NASA | June 15, 2023
NASA Earthdata showed how satellite sea surface height and sea surface temperature data help monitor El Niño development.
June 2023 ENSO Update: El Niño Is Here
Article link | Emily Becker | NOAA Climate.gov | June 8, 2023
NOAA declared the arrival of El Niño in 2023 and explained its likely persistence through winter.
International Sea Level Satellite Spots Early Signs of El Niño
Article link | NASA/JPL | Phys.org | May 15, 2023
Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich detected Kelvin waves moving across the Pacific, providing early satellite evidence of developing El Niño conditions.
International Sea Level Satellite Spots Early Signs of El Niño
Article link | Jet Propulsion Laboratory | NASA/JPL | May 12, 2023
JPL reported that sea level satellite data showed Kelvin waves associated with warmer water moving eastward toward South America.
May 2023 ENSO Update: El Niño Knocking on the Door
Article link | Emily Becker | NOAA Climate.gov | May 11, 2023
NOAA kept an El Niño Watch in place as Pacific conditions became increasingly favorable for development.
April 2023 ENSO Update: El Niño Watch
Article link | Emily Becker | NOAA Climate.gov | April 13, 2023
NOAA issued an El Niño Watch, meaning conditions favored El Niño development within the next six months.
March 2023 ENSO Update: No More La Niña
Article link | Emily Becker | NOAA Climate.gov | March 9, 2023
NOAA reported that the long-running La Niña had ended, opening the possibility of later El Niño development.
February 2023 ENSO Update: The ENSO Blog Investigates
Article link | NOAA Climate.gov | NOAA | February 8, 2023
NOAA examined the developing ENSO outlook and the possibility that El Niño could form later in 2023.
October 2022 La Niña Update: Snack Size
Article link | Emily Becker | NOAA Climate.gov | October 13, 2022
NOAA discussed the persistence of La Niña and how repeated cool-phase events affect seasonal climate expectations.
March 2022 La Niña Update: Three-Bean Salad
Article link | Emily Becker | NOAA Climate.gov | March 10, 2022
NOAA explained continuing La Niña conditions and the longer-term ENSO outlook after multiple cool-season events.
Reference, Data, and Monitoring Resources
What Is the El Niño–Southern Oscillation in a Nutshell?
Article link | NOAA Climate.gov | NOAA | NOAA Climate.gov
NOAA explains ENSO as a coupled ocean-atmosphere pattern with El Niño and La Niña phases that shift global rainfall and temperature patterns.
El Niño and La Niña
Article link | NOAA Climate.gov | NOAA | NOAA Climate.gov
NOAA provides a general guide to El Niño, La Niña, ENSO-neutral conditions, and the global effects of tropical Pacific climate shifts.
El Niño / Southern Oscillation Monitoring
Article link | NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information | NOAA | NOAA NCEI
NOAA's NCEI page tracks current ENSO status and provides access to monitoring data, indices, and official outlooks.
El Niño Southern Oscillation Dashboard
Article link | Copernicus Marine Service | Copernicus | Copernicus
Copernicus provides an interactive dashboard for tracking ENSO-related sea surface temperature and ocean indicators.
Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly
Article link | NASA Earth Observatory | NASA | NASA Earth Observatory
NASA's global sea surface temperature anomaly maps help show the ocean warming patterns that define El Niño and La Niña events.
El Niño
Article link | NASA Science | NASA | NASA Science
NASA's El Niño topic page collects satellite observations, Earth Observatory articles, and mission resources about the ENSO cycle.
Ocean Surface Topography From Space
Article link | Jet Propulsion Laboratory | NASA/JPL | NASA/JPL
NASA's ocean surface topography portal explains how satellite altimetry tracks sea level, ocean circulation, and El Niño-related warm water movement.
Altimetric and Ocean Surface Topography Data Information
Article link | Physical Oceanography Distributed Active Archive Center | NASA/JPL | NASA
NASA's PO.DAAC explains altimetry datasets used to monitor ocean height, sea level, and ENSO-linked ocean changes.
Climate Bulletins
Article link | Copernicus Climate Change Service | Copernicus | 2026
Copernicus climate bulletins track global temperature, sea surface temperature, sea ice, and tropical Pacific conditions relevant to El Niño monitoring.
NOAA Oceanic Niño Index
Article link | NOAA Climate Prediction Center | NOAA | 2026
NOAA's Oceanic Niño Index provides the official historical record used to classify El Niño and La Niña episodes.
Multivariate ENSO Index
Article link | NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory | NOAA | 2026
NOAA's Multivariate ENSO Index combines several ocean-atmosphere variables to describe the strength and evolution of ENSO events.
ENSO and Global Climate Impacts
Article link | NOAA Climate.gov | NOAA | NOAA Climate.gov
NOAA answers common questions about how El Niño and La Niña affect temperature, precipitation, storms, drought, and seasonal outlooks.
World Meteorological Organization El Niño/La Niña Update
Article link | World Meteorological Organization | WMO | 2026
WMO explains global El Niño and La Niña monitoring, seasonal forecast updates, and international warnings about climate impacts.
Global Seasonal Climate Update
Article link | World Meteorological Organization | WMO | 2026
WMO's seasonal climate update summarizes global temperature and rainfall outlooks influenced by ENSO and other large-scale climate drivers.
El Niño Impacts on Fisheries and Marine Ecosystems
Article link | NOAA Fisheries | NOAA | NOAA Fisheries
NOAA explains how marine heatwaves, often intensified during El Niño periods, affect fisheries, marine mammals, seabirds, and ocean ecosystems.
Marine Heatwave Tracker
Article link | NOAA Integrated Ecosystem Assessment | NOAA | NOAA
NOAA's marine heatwave tracker monitors warm ocean anomalies in the California Current, helping scientists assess ecosystem risks during El Niño years.
El Niño and Coral Bleaching
Article link | NOAA Coral Reef Watch | NOAA | NOAA
NOAA Coral Reef Watch tracks ocean heat stress and coral bleaching risk, which can intensify during El Niño and marine heatwave conditions.
NASA Sea Level Change Portal
Article link | NASA Sea Level Change Team | NASA | NASA
NASA's sea level portal explains satellite measurements of ocean height, including data useful for tracking El Niño-related warm water movement.
Copernicus Marine Ocean Monitoring Indicators
Article link | Copernicus Marine Service | Copernicus | Copernicus
Copernicus indicators provide ocean heat, sea level, and temperature datasets used to monitor ENSO and broader ocean climate change.
Copernicus Climate Data Store
Article link | Copernicus Climate Change Service | Copernicus | Copernicus
Copernicus data products support climate analysis of sea surface temperature, ocean heat, and atmospheric conditions linked to El Niño.
NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory ENSO Resources
Article link | NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory | NOAA | NOAA
NOAA PSL provides ENSO datasets, maps, and research resources for studying El Niño, La Niña, and global climate teleconnections.
NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO Monitoring
Article link | NOAA Climate Prediction Center | NOAA | NOAA
NOAA CPC provides maps and monitoring products showing tropical Pacific sea surface temperature, winds, and atmospheric patterns.
ENSO and Seasonal Forecast Skill
Article link | European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts | ECMWF | 2026
ECMWF seasonal charts help track forecast patterns influenced by El Niño, including temperature, rainfall, and sea surface temperature anomalies.
El Niño and U.S. Seasonal Outlooks
Article link | NOAA Climate Prediction Center | NOAA | 2026
NOAA seasonal outlooks translate ENSO forecasts into probabilities for temperature and precipitation across the United States.
El Niño and Australia’s Climate Outlook
Article link | Bureau of Meteorology | Australian Government | 2026
Australia's Bureau of Meteorology tracks ENSO status and explains how El Niño can influence heat, rainfall, drought, and bushfire risk.
El Niño and Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures
Article link | Bureau of Meteorology | Australian Government | 2026
Australian ocean monitoring products show sea surface temperature anomalies across the Pacific, a key indicator of El Niño strength.
El Niño and New Zealand Climate Outlooks
Article link | National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research | NIWA | 2026
NIWA seasonal outlooks help show how El Niño can influence rainfall, temperature, and wind patterns around New Zealand.
El Niño and Global Climate Monitoring
Article link | NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information | NOAA | 2026
NOAA monthly global climate reports track temperature, precipitation, and ocean conditions during El Niño and other major climate events.
El Niño and Ocean Data From Space
Article link | NASA Earthdata | NASA | NASA
NASA Earthdata provides ocean datasets from satellites that help scientists monitor sea surface temperature, sea surface height, and El Niño changes.
El Niño and Earth System Forecasting
Article link | NOAA | NOAA | NOAA
NOAA research laboratories study ocean-atmosphere interactions, climate prediction, and the forecasting systems used to anticipate El Niño impacts.
Historical Background and Satellite Archives
Impacts of El Niño and La Niña on the Hurricane Season
Article link | NOAA Climate.gov | NOAA | May 30, 2014
NOAA explains how El Niño and La Niña influence Atlantic and Pacific hurricane activity through wind shear and atmospheric circulation.
Where Is La Niña?
Article link | NASA Earth Observatory | NASA | July 3, 2003
NASA used sea surface height data to explain quiet tropical Pacific conditions and the relationship between ocean height and ENSO phases.
El Niño’s Extended Family
Article link | NASA Earth Observatory | NASA | November 8, 1999
NASA explains the wider family of cyclic climate patterns that influence global weather, including El Niño and related ocean-atmosphere interactions.
The Color of El Niño
Article link | NASA Earth Observatory | NASA | August 19, 1999
NASA describes how satellite ocean-color observations help reveal biological and oceanographic changes linked to El Niño.
