A Very Strong El Niño Is Approaching. Here's What We Can Expect=
Current El Niño Forecasts and Official Updates
El Niño Arrives and Could Rank Among Strongest Events Ever Recorded
Article link | Phys.org | Phys.org | June 13, 2026
Article reports NOAA's declaration of El Niño and the chance that the event could become very strong by winter.
NOAA Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion
Article link | NOAA Climate Prediction Center | NOAA | June 11, 2026
Official NOAA discussion says El Niño conditions are present and expected to strengthen into Northern Hemisphere winter 2026–27.
El Niño Forms, Expected to Strengthen, Say NOAA Forecasters
Article link | NOAA | NOAA | June 11, 2026
NOAA release confirms El Niño has formed and is expected to intensify to moderate or strong levels by fall.
El Niño Conditions Are Present, US Forecaster Says
Article link | Reuters | Reuters | June 11, 2026
Reuters report on NOAA's confirmation of El Niño and possible impacts on crops, rainfall, and global weather.
Odds Climb for Record El Niño as 75% of Models Predict 2.5C Warming
Article link | Phys.org | Phys.org | June 10, 2026
Article reports that major forecast models increasingly point toward a very strong or record-level El Niño later in 2026.
A Very Strong El Niño Is Approaching. Here's What We Can Expect
Article link | Phys.org | Phys.org | June 3, 2026
Explainer on forecasts suggesting a strong El Niño may develop, with discussion of global heat, rainfall, drought, and climate extremes.
WMO: Prepare for El Niño
Article link | World Meteorological Organization | WMO | June 2, 2026
WMO update warns that El Niño is likely to develop and could increase the risk of extreme weather and above-normal temperatures.
A 'Super El Niño?' Why It's Too Early to Forecast One With Certainty
Article link | The Conversation | Phys.org | May 14, 2026
Explainer on the uncertainty of super El Niño forecasts and why early model signals must be interpreted cautiously.
WMO: Likelihood Increases of El Niño
Article link | World Meteorological Organization | WMO | April 24, 2026
WMO update says El Niño is expected to develop from mid-2026 and influence global rainfall and temperature patterns.
Are We Heading Towards a Super El Niño in 2026?
Article link | Zero Carbon Analytics | Zero Carbon Analytics | April 2026
Briefing reviews forecasts for a possible 2026 El Niño and explains how climate change can make impacts more severe.
ENSO Forecast
Article link | International Research Institute for Climate and Society | Columbia Climate School | 2026
IRI forecast page tracks current ENSO probabilities and helps explain how forecasters assess El Niño and La Niña risk.
Official NOAA CPC ENSO Strength Probabilities
Article link | NOAA Climate Prediction Center | NOAA | 2026
NOAA page gives official probabilities for El Niño, neutral, and La Niña strength categories across upcoming seasons.
El Niño and La Niña Information
Article link | National Weather Service Tucson | NOAA | 2026
NOAA regional resource explains ENSO basics, forecasts, and typical effects on weather patterns.
December 2025 ENSO Update: Watching the Pacific
Article link | NOAA Climate.gov | NOAA Climate.gov | December 2025
ENSO Blog updates track Pacific Ocean and atmosphere conditions that help forecasters judge future El Niño or La Niña development.
A 'Hitchhiker's Guide' to the June 2025 ENSO Update
Article link | NOAA Climate.gov | NOAA Climate.gov | June 12, 2025
ENSO Blog update explains how El Niño and La Niña change atmospheric circulation and jet-stream patterns around the world.
May 2025 ENSO Update: Eye of Neutral
Article link | NOAA Climate.gov | NOAA Climate.gov | May 8, 2025
NOAA update explains neutral ENSO conditions and how forecasters watch for future El Niño or La Niña development.
April 2025 ENSO Update: La Niña Has Ended
Article link | NOAA Climate.gov | NOAA Climate.gov | April 10, 2025
NOAA update explains the end of La Niña and the Pacific conditions that precede future ENSO shifts.
February 2025 La Niña Update: La Niña Today, Gone Tomorrow?
Article link | NOAA Climate.gov | NOAA Climate.gov | February 13, 2025
ENSO Blog update discusses short-lived La Niña conditions and the uncertainty of future ENSO states.
January 2025 Update: La Niña Is Here
Article link | NOAA Climate.gov | NOAA Climate.gov | January 9, 2025
NOAA article explains the return of La Niña and how forecasters use sea-surface temperature thresholds.
December 2023 El Niño Update: Adventure!
Article link | NOAA Climate.gov | NOAA Climate.gov | December 13, 2023
NOAA update explains a strong El Niño event, the chance of historic strength, and how forecasters assess Pacific warming.
July 2023 El Niño Update: Learning the Steps
Article link | NOAA Climate.gov | NOAA Climate.gov | July 13, 2023
NOAA update explains why forecasters were confident the 2023 El Niño would continue and how ocean-atmosphere coupling develops.
March 2022 La Niña Update: Three-Bean Salad
Article link | NOAA Climate.gov | NOAA Climate.gov | March 10, 2022
ENSO Blog article explains seasonal ENSO impacts and why summer effects are often weaker in the Northern Hemisphere.
What Is the El Niño–Southern Oscillation in a Nutshell?
Article link | NOAA Climate.gov | NOAA Climate.gov | 2010s
NOAA explainer gives a concise overview of ENSO, including El Niño, La Niña, ocean temperatures, trade winds, and rainfall shifts.
El Niño and La Niña Page
Article link | NOAA Climate.gov | NOAA Climate.gov | 2010s
NOAA hub page provides background on ENSO, current conditions, forecasts, impacts, maps, and explainers.
El Niño Southern Oscillation: Global Climate Driver
Article link | National Weather Service | NOAA | 2010s
NOAA resource explains how ENSO affects global atmospheric circulation and regional weather patterns.
El Niño Theme Page
Article link | NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory | NOAA | 2010s
NOAA PMEL resource explains El Niño science, Pacific observing systems, and ocean-atmosphere monitoring.
Monthly Ocean Briefing on ENSO Conditions
Article link | NOAA Climate Prediction Center | NOAA | 2010s
NOAA ocean-monitoring resource tracks subsurface and surface Pacific conditions important for El Niño forecasting.
Climate Prediction Center ENSO Monitoring
Article link | NOAA Climate Prediction Center | NOAA | 2010s
NOAA monitoring page summarizes oceanic and atmospheric indicators used in El Niño and La Niña outlooks.
IRI ENSO Resources
Article link | International Research Institute for Climate and Society | Columbia Climate School | 2010s
Columbia resource explains ENSO science, forecasts, impacts, and practical use in seasonal climate risk planning.
Ocean Heat, Satellites, and ENSO Monitoring
World's Oceans Break June Heat Record: EU Monitor
Article link | Phys.org | Phys.org | July 1, 2026
Report on record June ocean temperatures and warnings that a developing El Niño could help push more global temperature records higher.
Ocean Surface Temperatures Hit a Record High for June
Article link | The Guardian | The Guardian | July 1, 2026
Coverage of record ocean warmth and its connection to a possible strong El Niño, extreme weather risks, and global heat records.
Record Sea Temperatures in June Push World Into 'Uncharted' Waters
Article link | Financial Times | Financial Times | July 1, 2026
Article on record sea-surface temperatures, the role of El Niño, and concerns that warm oceans could intensify storms and prolong global heat.
El Niño Is Underway, Satellite Observations Show
Article link | NASA | Phys.org | June 21, 2026
NASA satellite observations show El Niño strengthening through sea-surface-height patterns in the tropical Pacific.
El Niño Is Underway
Article link | NASA Earth Observatory | NASA | June 18, 2026
NASA explains how satellite observations detected Kelvin waves and elevated sea surface height associated with the developing El Niño.
El Niño Is Back, and Ocean Temperatures Are Already Near Record Highs
Article link | The Conversation | Phys.org | June 15, 2026
Explainer on how El Niño can affect marine heat waves, fish, coral reefs, rainfall, and global temperature records.
Earth's Energy Imbalance Has Doubled—Here's Why That Matters
Article link | Phys.org | Phys.org | June 11, 2026
Article connects rising planetary heat storage with the added climate stress that a strong El Niño can bring.
New Relative Niño Index Introduces More Robust Way to Measure El Niño Strength
Article link | Phys.org | Phys.org | June 8, 2026
Article explains a new Relative Niño index designed to measure El Niño strength more reliably in a warming climate.
A Strong El Niño Developing in 2026 Could Drive Global Surface Temperatures to Record Highs
Article link | Yunyun Liu et al. | The Innovation Geoscience | June 5, 2026
Research article finds that a strong 2026 El Niño could help push global surface temperatures toward record highs.
A Giant Warm Wave Is Crossing the Pacific, Signaling an El Niño That Could Alter Weather Worldwide This Year
Article link | NASA | Phys.org | May 27, 2026
NASA satellite data show warm Kelvin waves moving across the Pacific, an early sign of El Niño development.
Oceans Near Record Heat Again as El Niño Conditions Begin to Build
Article link | Phys.org | Phys.org | May 8, 2026
Article connects unusually warm oceans with the early development of El Niño conditions and rising climate risks.
Simple Ocean-Based Model Forecasts a Powerful El Niño Ahead
Article link | University of Hawaiʻi | Phys.org | April 21, 2026
Article describes an ocean-based forecasting model that points to a strong El Niño developing later in 2026.
Pacific Ocean Warming Signals the Possible Return of a Global Climate Driver
Article link | Met Office | Met Office | April 15, 2026
Met Office explainer describes what El Niño is, how it forms, and why Pacific warming matters for global weather.
El Niño and La Niña Synchronize Global Droughts and Floods
Article link | University of Texas at Austin | Phys.org | January 12, 2026
Research article examines how ENSO helps synchronize drought and flood patterns across regions of the world.
Climate Variability: Oceanic Niño Index
Article link | NOAA Climate.gov | NOAA Climate.gov | 2010s
NOAA reference explains the Oceanic Niño Index, the key measure used to identify El Niño and La Niña conditions.
Pacific Warming Signals El Niño Has Stirred
Article link | European Space Agency | ESA | 2026
ESA article explains how satellite observations of Pacific warming help detect El Niño development.
NASA Satellite Captures Wave of Warm Water Hundreds of Miles Long That Signals a Devastatingly Strong El Niño
Article link | Live Science | Live Science | June 2026
Article explains NASA satellite detection of a large Kelvin wave and why warm Pacific water can signal El Niño development.
Extreme Weather, Heat, Flooding, and Hurricanes
UN Warns World to Prepare for El Niño Extreme Weather
Article link | Alexandre Grosbois | Phys.org | June 29, 2026
Article reports WMO warnings that El Niño could raise the risk of extreme weather, including drought, heavy rainfall, and heat waves.
What Would a Stronger El Niño Mean for Texas Hurricane Season or the Chances of a Houston Snowfall?
Article link | Houston Chronicle | Houston Chronicle | June 27, 2026
Regional explainer on how a stronger El Niño could reduce Atlantic hurricane activity while increasing winter rainfall odds in Texas.
July Hurricane Outlook: Could El Niño, Saharan Dust Shape Texas' Storm Chances?
Article link | Houston Chronicle | Houston Chronicle | June 27, 2026
Article explains how El Niño-related wind shear and Saharan dust could influence July hurricane activity and Gulf Coast storm risk.
El Niño Is Here and Scientists Fear It'll Be Big, Bad and Costly With Heat, Floods, Droughts, Fires
Article link | Seth Borenstein | Phys.org | June 11, 2026
AP-style report on scientists' concerns that a strong El Niño could worsen heat, floods, droughts, wildfires, and global economic losses.
What Is Godzilla El Niño?
Article link | Phys.org | Phys.org | June 4, 2026
Explainer on the term "Godzilla El Niño," strong-event uncertainty, and why impacts vary by region.
A Strong El Niño May Be Imminent. Climate Change Will Make Its Effects Worse
Article link | Reuters | Reuters | June 3, 2026
Article explains how climate change can amplify the drought, flood, heat, and food-system effects of a strong El Niño.
El Niño and High Tide Flooding, a Possible Double Whammy for US Coasts
Article link | NOAA Ocean Service | NOAA | May 15, 2026
NOAA article explains how El Niño can raise the risk of high-tide flooding along parts of the U.S. coast.
Hurricane Helene's Extreme Rainfall and Catastrophic Inland Flooding
Article link | NOAA Climate.gov | NOAA Climate.gov | November 7, 2024
Event tracker article on extreme rainfall and flooding, useful background for understanding how climate patterns can amplify disaster risk.
How Does El Niño Influence Winter Precipitation Over the United States?
Article link | NOAA Climate.gov | NOAA Climate.gov | November 30, 2023
Explainer shows how El Niño tends to shift U.S. winter precipitation patterns while leaving room for regional uncertainty.
El Niño Could Push Global Warming Past 1.5 C—but What Is It and How Does It Affect the Weather?
Article link | The Conversation | Phys.org | June 29, 2023
Explainer describes how El Niño changes rainfall, drought, heat, and global temperature patterns.
Impacts of El Niño and La Niña on the Hurricane Season
Article link | NOAA Climate.gov | NOAA Climate.gov | May 30, 2014
NOAA explainer describes how El Niño tends to suppress Atlantic hurricanes while favoring stronger activity in parts of the Pacific.
United States El Niño Impacts
Article link | NOAA Climate.gov | NOAA Climate.gov | June 12, 2014
NOAA article explains typical U.S. temperature and precipitation patterns during El Niño events.
Can We Blame El Niño?
Article link | NOAA Climate.gov | NOAA Climate.gov | 2010s
NOAA explainer discusses when it is reasonable to connect floods, droughts, heat, and other extremes to El Niño.
El Niño, Heat Waves, and Climate Extremes
Article link | Phys.org | Phys.org | June 2026
Article discusses the danger of global heat waves and notes that El Niño can add to long-term warming in some regions.
Food Security, Agriculture, Commodities, and Economy
A Severe El Niño Could Threaten Something Essential to Half the World: Rice
Article link | Phys.org | Phys.org | June 30, 2026
Article explains how strong El Niño conditions could disrupt rice production by changing rainfall, heat, and water availability in key growing regions.
El Niño Is Coming. At the FAO We Know Where Drought Will Hit Hardest
Article link | Reuters | Reuters | June 29, 2026
Article on FAO mapping of El Niño-linked drought risk, with emphasis on agriculture, food security, and vulnerable regions.
Economists See El Niño Lifting Brazil Inflation, Central Bank Survey Shows
Article link | Reuters | Reuters | June 24, 2026
Report on how El Niño-related weather disruptions could raise food prices and inflation in Brazil.
El Niño Is Coming. Here Is Where the Risks to Agriculture Are Highest
Article link | FAO | Food and Agriculture Organization | June 22, 2026
FAO article maps where El Niño-linked drought is most likely to threaten crops and pasturelands.
Bracing for El Niño: FAO and WFP Launch Joint Appeal to Protect 8.8 Million People From Extreme Weather
Article link | World Food Programme | WFP | June 18, 2026
Article on the FAO-WFP appeal for anticipatory action before El Niño-related droughts, floods, and storms affect vulnerable communities.
El Niño FAO–WFP Joint Anticipatory Action Appeal June 2026–March 2027
Article link | World Food Programme | WFP | June 18, 2026
Appeal document outlines early actions to reduce the effects of El Niño on food security, water systems, livestock, and farming.
Why a Strong El Niño Leaves Tropical Commodities Acutely Exposed
Article link | Reuters | Reuters | June 17, 2026
Article explains risks to cocoa, coffee, sugar, and other tropical commodities as strong El Niño conditions threaten crops.
Potentially Historic El Niño to Come, Analysis Shows Humanitarian Toll
Article link | European Commission Joint Research Centre | JRC | June 15, 2026
Analysis of a potentially historic El Niño and the humanitarian risks from drought, floods, food insecurity, and climate extremes.
How a Super El Niño Could Trigger Global Famine
Article link | The Conversation | Phys.org | May 19, 2026
Article explains how extreme heat, drought, conflict, and fragile food systems could combine with a super El Niño to increase famine risk.
'Super El Niño' Raises Fears for Asia Reeling From Middle East Conflict
Article link | Phys.org | Phys.org | May 5, 2026
Article examines how strong El Niño conditions could affect Asian energy demand, hydropower, crops, and heat risk.
Forecast for Strong El Niño Fans Worries About Global Crops as Iran War Bites
Article link | Reuters | Reuters | April 26, 2026
Article reports concern that strong El Niño conditions could damage crops and food supplies across Asia and other regions.
How Might a 'Super El Niño' Affect Food, Forests and Water?
Article link | World Resources Institute | WRI | June 3, 2026
WRI explainer looks at how a super El Niño could affect drought, water availability, food systems, forests, and vulnerable regions.
WFP and FAO Publish Analysis on the Potential Impacts of El Niño
Article link | Global Network Against Food Crises | GNAFC | June 12, 2026
Article summarizes FAO-WFP analysis of El Niño impacts on crops, pasturelands, livelihoods, and food security.
El Niño Threat Prompts FAO and WFP's $202m Food Appeal
Article link | New Food Magazine | New Food Magazine | June 19, 2026
Article reports on the FAO-WFP appeal to help countries prepare for droughts, floods, and agricultural disruption linked to El Niño.
FAO: El Niño Threatens Food Security
Article link | UNifeed | United Nations | June 2026
UN video report explains how a new El Niño phase could threaten farmers, food producers, and communities already facing climate stress.
El Niño's Coming Back—and It Could Cost the Global Economy Trillions
Article link | MarketWatch | MarketWatch | June 2026
Article discusses estimates that a strong El Niño could create large global economic losses through agriculture, infrastructure, and productivity impacts.
Does the El Niño Southern Oscillation Actually Matter for Food?
Article link | The Conversation | Phys.org | July 31, 2018
Article explains why ENSO matters for food systems by changing the pattern of droughts, floods, and harvest risks.
Regional Impacts
India Warns of Below-Average July Monsoon Rains After Particularly Dry June
Article link | Reuters | Reuters | June 30, 2026
Report on India's weak monsoon outlook and how a strengthening El Niño can contribute to rainfall deficits that affect crops and water supplies.
India Records Fifth Driest June Since 1901 as Monsoon Rains Lag
Article link | Reuters | Reuters | June 30, 2026
Article on India's severe June rainfall deficit, delayed monsoon progress, and El Niño-linked risks for agriculture and heat.
Papua New Guinea at Risk of Food Shortages as El Niño Brings Frost and Drought
Article link | The Guardian | The Guardian | June 25, 2026
Report on drought, frost, crop damage, and food insecurity in Papua New Guinea as El Niño conditions affect the Pacific.
PNG Braces for El Niño Impacts as Frost and Drought Destroy Crops
Article link | ABC Pacific | ABC Pacific | June 25, 2026
Article on Papua New Guinea's preparation for El Niño-related food and water shortages after frost and drought damaged crops.
Prime Minister Marape Directs Nationwide Preparedness as El Niño Threatens Prolonged Dry Season
Article link | Government of Papua New Guinea | PMNEC | June 22, 2026
Government update on national preparedness for El Niño-related drought and prolonged dry-season risks in Papua New Guinea.
What Scientists Know About a Potential 'Super' El Niño
Article link | Phys.org | Phys.org | May 22, 2026
Article explains what scientists know and do not know about the chance of a super El Niño and its delayed temperature effects.
Rainfall Forecasts in Daily Use Over East Africa Improved by Machine Learning
Article link | Fenwick C. Cooper et al. | arXiv | December 2025
Research on improved East Africa rainfall forecasts, relevant to regions where El Niño can change seasonal flood and drought risks.
More Extreme Indian Monsoon Daily Rainfall in El Niño Summers
Article link | Spencer A. Hill et al. | arXiv | April 18, 2024
Research finds El Niño can increase some extreme daily rainfall risks in India even while making dry monsoon seasons more likely overall.
Is a Super El Niño Brewing in 2026? What It Could Mean for Eastern African Rainfall
Article link | ICPAC | ICPAC | June 2026
Regional explainer discusses how a strong 2026 El Niño could influence East African rainfall and flood risk.
Papua New Guinea Faces Severe Food Shortages as El Niño Brings Frost and Drought
Article link | World Ocean Observatory | World Ocean Observatory | June 2026
Article highlights El Niño-linked frost, drought, falling water levels, and food-security risk in Papua New Guinea.
Papua New Guinea at Risk of Food Shortages as El Niño Brings Frost and Drought
Article link | PreventionWeb | PreventionWeb | June 2026
Disaster-risk article summarizes El Niño's effects on Papua New Guinea crops, water supplies, and food security.
DAL Leads Preparations for Major El Niño-Induced Drought Expected to Begin in June
Article link | Department of Agriculture and Livestock | Papua New Guinea | June 22, 2026
PNG agriculture update describes preparations for an El Niño-induced drought and potential impacts on food production.
ENSO Science, Forecasting Methods, and Climate Change
Super El Niños May Lose Their Punch in a Warming World
Article link | Phys.org | Phys.org | June 16, 2026
Climate-model research suggests future extreme El Niño events may have different atmospheric impacts as global warming changes baseline conditions.
Climate Network and Complexity Based ENSO Forecast for 2026
Article link | Josef Ludescher et al. | arXiv | February 16, 2026
Research preprint presents climate-network and complexity-based forecasts for ENSO conditions in 2026.
Winner or Bust? Did La Niña Shape North American Precipitation This Winter?
Article link | NOAA Climate.gov | NOAA Climate.gov | March 27, 2025
Article compares expected ENSO precipitation patterns with observed winter outcomes and shows why impacts vary by event.
Forecasting the El Niño Type Well Before the Spring Predictability Barrier
Article link | J. Ludescher, A. Bunde and H. J. Schellnhuber | arXiv | December 28, 2022
Research on forecasting whether an El Niño is more likely to be Eastern Pacific or Central Pacific, which affects regional impacts.
Changes in ENSO Impacts in a Warming World
Article link | NOAA Climate.gov | NOAA Climate.gov | September 27, 2018
NOAA article discusses how global warming may alter the familiar impacts of El Niño and La Niña.
(Un)Predictability of Strong El Niño Events
Article link | John Guckenheimer et al. | arXiv | October 9, 2017
Research examines why strong El Niño events can be difficult to predict and why their timing can vary irregularly.
Forecasting the Magnitude and Onset of El Niño Based on Climate Network
Article link | Jun Meng et al. | arXiv | March 27, 2017
Research presents a network-based method for forecasting El Niño onset and magnitude about a year in advance.
In Watching for El Niño and La Niña, NOAA Adapts to Global Warming
Article link | NOAA Climate.gov | NOAA Climate.gov | February 5, 2013
Article explains how NOAA adjusts ENSO monitoring as a warming climate changes ocean-temperature baselines.
El Niño and the Galápagos
Article link | NOAA Climate.gov | NOAA Climate.gov | 2010s
Article explains why the Galápagos Islands are especially sensitive to El Niño-driven ocean warming and ecosystem change.
Historical ENSO Events and Background Resources
Climate.gov Tweet Chat: Talk El Niño and La Niña With the ENSO Bloggers
Article link | NOAA Climate.gov | NOAA Climate.gov | June 1, 2021
Public explainer resource answers basic questions about El Niño, La Niña, ENSO forecasting, and global climate effects.
2015 State of the Climate: El Niño Came, Saw, and Conquered
Article link | NOAA Climate.gov | NOAA Climate.gov | August 2, 2016
NOAA review of the strong 2015 El Niño and its links to global temperature, drought, and extreme climate events.
Learning From El Niño as La Niña Odds Rise
Article link | Phys.org | Phys.org | May 2, 2016
Article reviews the humanitarian and climate impacts of the 2015–16 El Niño and the transition risk toward La Niña.
Climate.gov's Most Requested El Niño and La Niña Images
Article link | NOAA Climate.gov | NOAA Climate.gov | February 3, 2016
NOAA image resource explains common El Niño and La Niña patterns through maps and graphics.
Will La Niña Follow El Niño? What the Past Tells Us
Article link | NOAA Climate.gov | NOAA Climate.gov | January 28, 2016
ENSO Blog article reviews historical transitions after moderate and strong El Niño events.
El Niño and La Niña: Frequently Asked Questions
Article link | NOAA Climate.gov | NOAA Climate.gov | January 18, 2016
FAQ explains what El Niño and La Niña are, how often they occur, and how they affect global weather.
