Agricultural Expansion
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Agricultural Expansion
Agricultural expansion is the conversion of forests, grasslands, wetlands, savannas and other landscapes into cropland, pasture, plantations and other forms of agricultural production. It has been one of the most consequential forms of human land-use change and remains closely connected to efforts to feed a growing and increasingly affluent global population.
Satellite studies show that the world's cultivated area continues to change substantially. Cropland expanded rapidly during the early twenty-first century, particularly in Africa and South America, while agricultural frontiers have also advanced across parts of Southeast Asia and other regions. Much of this expansion has occurred at the expense of natural vegetation.
Agricultural expansion presents a fundamental land-use dilemma. Agriculture is essential for food security, rural livelihoods and economic development, but converting additional natural ecosystems can cause deforestation, habitat fragmentation, biodiversity loss, soil degradation, changes in water systems and greenhouse-gas emissions. The challenge is therefore not simply how to produce more food, but how to meet agricultural demand without continuously enlarging humanity's ecological footprint.
Agriculture and Global Land-Use Change
Agriculture occupies an enormous share of the Earth's usable land and remains one of the principal forces transforming terrestrial ecosystems. New agricultural land is created through several processes, including clearing forests for crops, converting savannas and grasslands to farms, draining wetlands, expanding cattle pasture and establishing commodity plantations.
The Food and Agriculture Organization has concluded that agricultural expansion is responsible for the overwhelming majority of global deforestation. Cropland expansion and livestock grazing account for most forest conversion, although their relative importance varies substantially from one region to another.
Agricultural expansion is not distributed evenly. Some regions are experiencing continued increases in cultivated area while others are undergoing agricultural abandonment, urbanization or changes between different forms of farming. Europe, for example, has experienced both abandonment and recultivation, while parts of Africa and South America have experienced rapid expansion into landscapes that previously contained natural vegetation.
These patterns create what researchers have described as a global "land squeeze." Food production must increasingly compete for land with cities, timber production, biodiversity conservation, carbon storage, renewable energy and ecosystem restoration.
Agricultural expansion is also shaped by economics. Higher commodity prices, access to roads, proximity to markets, land values, government incentives, infrastructure and property-right systems can all affect whether farmers and companies expand production into previously uncultivated land.
Deforestation, Biodiversity and Ecosystem Conversion
Forests receive much of the attention surrounding agricultural expansion because tropical deforestation is closely associated with cattle ranching, soybeans, palm oil, cocoa, rubber and other commodities. However, agricultural conversion extends far beyond forests.
Grasslands, savannas and wetlands are increasingly recognized as major agricultural frontiers. Because these ecosystems sometimes receive less legal protection and public attention than forests, substantial habitat destruction can occur without being categorized as deforestation.
Conversion changes far more than vegetation cover. Natural ecosystems contain complex communities of plants, animals, fungi and microorganisms. Replacing them with simplified agricultural systems can reduce species richness, alter ecological interactions and fragment remaining habitat.
Species with small geographic ranges or specialized habitat requirements can be particularly vulnerable. Agricultural expansion near protected areas can also isolate reserves from surrounding ecosystems, reducing connectivity and increasing pressure on wildlife populations.
Protected status does not always prevent agricultural encroachment. Research has documented cropland expansion within or near protected areas in several regions, particularly where reserves are large, weakly enforced or surrounded by rapidly growing agricultural populations.
Agricultural land conversion also affects ecosystems below ground. Studies of forest, grassland and wetland conversion have documented changes in soil carbon, nutrients and microbial communities. These changes can influence fertility, erosion, greenhouse-gas emissions and the long-term productivity of the land itself.
Regional Agricultural Frontiers
Agricultural expansion takes different forms in different parts of the world.
In Africa, cropland has expanded substantially in recent decades. Population growth, food demand, commercial agriculture, rural livelihoods, infrastructure and market access all contribute to the process. Research from Kenya, Tanzania, Zambia, Ethiopia, Ghana, Nigeria, Mozambique and other countries documents agricultural encroachment into forests, wetlands, grasslands and savannas.
East Africa illustrates the complexity of these changes. Agricultural expansion around the Mau Forest Complex, Mount Kenya, the Taita Hills and other ecologically important landscapes has altered forest cover, wildlife habitat and watershed conditions. In some regions, expanding cultivation is closely linked with settlement and infrastructure development.
Southeast Asia contains some of the world's most prominent commodity-driven agricultural frontiers. Oil palm and rubber plantations have replaced extensive areas of tropical forest. Rubber expansion has affected Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and other mainland Southeast Asian countries, while oil-palm development has been particularly important in Indonesia and Malaysia.
Agricultural frontiers can also migrate. When regulations, land scarcity or commodity markets constrain expansion in one region, production may shift elsewhere. Competition between oil palm, rubber and other crops illustrates how changing profitability can redirect land conversion across national borders.
South America contains another major agricultural frontier. Cattle ranching historically played a central role in Amazon deforestation, while soybean cultivation expanded rapidly across Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and neighboring regions. Brazil's Cerrado has become especially important as soy production expanded into tropical savanna after stronger restrictions reduced direct soy-driven clearing in parts of the Amazon.
The Gran Chaco of Argentina, Paraguay and Bolivia has also experienced extensive agricultural conversion. Industrial agriculture and cattle production have transformed forests and dry woodlands while affecting Indigenous peoples and other communities dependent on remaining natural landscapes.
North America has experienced renewed conversion of grasslands to crops in parts of the Great Plains. Studies indicate that some newly cultivated land produces relatively modest agricultural output while causing disproportionate losses of wildlife habitat, soil carbon and other ecological benefits.
China provides important examples of wetland conversion. Large areas of wetlands in northeastern China were historically transformed into agricultural landscapes, including extensive paddy cultivation. More recent research indicates that cultivation has also shifted toward environmentally sensitive mountains and wetlands.
Commodity Agriculture and Global Supply Chains
Agricultural expansion is increasingly connected to international commodity markets rather than only local food production.
Cattle, soybeans, palm oil, rubber, cocoa, coffee, sugarcane and plantation timber are among the commodities associated with large-scale land conversion. Demand generated in one country can therefore produce habitat loss thousands of kilometers away.
Soybean expansion in South America demonstrates this relationship. Soy is used extensively for livestock feed and international trade. Although policies such as the Amazon Soy Moratorium sharply reduced direct conversion of Amazon forest for soybeans in some areas, expansion continued in other ecosystems, particularly the Cerrado.
Cattle ranching remains another major land-use driver. Pasture can expand directly into forest or indirectly as cropland replaces existing pasture and pushes ranching toward frontier regions.
Oil palm and rubber have transformed substantial portions of Southeast Asia. Both crops can generate significant economic returns, creating powerful incentives for plantation development. Their effects depend heavily on whether expansion occurs on existing agricultural land, degraded land or intact natural ecosystems.
Cocoa production in Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire illustrates similar pressures. Expansion of cocoa cultivation has been associated with forest loss and encroachment into protected areas. Efforts to create deforestation-free cocoa supply chains increasingly attempt to trace production and reduce further habitat conversion.
Agricultural commodities can also produce indirect land-use change. A crop may expand onto existing farmland rather than directly clearing forest, but the activity it displaces can move elsewhere and create additional conversion. This makes the environmental consequences of agricultural expansion difficult to evaluate solely by examining the land on which a particular crop is grown.
Land Rights, Communities and Agricultural Expansion
Agricultural expansion is not purely an environmental issue. It also affects land ownership, livelihoods, migration, Indigenous territories and political power.
Large-scale agricultural land acquisitions have occurred throughout parts of Africa, Latin America and Asia. Such investments can introduce capital and infrastructure, but studies have also associated some acquisitions with forest loss, displacement and conflict over land.
Smallholder expansion follows different dynamics. Farmers may clear additional land because of population growth, low agricultural productivity, food insecurity, limited employment opportunities or rising crop prices. Improved road access and proximity to markets can make previously remote land economically attractive.
Agricultural expansion can therefore be driven by both poverty and wealth. Subsistence households may require more land to maintain livelihoods, while commercial producers may expand because global commodity markets make additional production highly profitable.
Indigenous and community land rights have emerged as an important conservation issue. Research from Latin America indicates that forests under Indigenous or community governance can experience lower rates of conversion than comparable lands lacking secure local tenure.
Agricultural frontiers can also transform social landscapes before forests are physically cleared. Land claims, speculation, roads, settlement and changing property boundaries may precede large-scale conversion and signal that a new agricultural frontier is forming.
The distribution of benefits and costs is often unequal. Agricultural expansion can generate export earnings, jobs and agricultural output while simultaneously reducing access to forests, water, grazing areas and other resources relied upon by local communities.
Beyond Forests: Grasslands, Wetlands and Soils
The environmental discussion surrounding agricultural expansion has historically focused heavily on forests, but non-forest ecosystems can be equally important.
Natural grasslands contain substantial biodiversity and carbon stores. Conversion to corn, soybeans and other crops can increase erosion, nutrient losses and depletion of soil carbon. Grassland ecosystems also provide habitat for birds, insects and other wildlife that cannot necessarily survive in cultivated landscapes.
Savannas are particularly vulnerable because they are sometimes interpreted as underused or degraded land despite supporting highly diverse ecological communities. Brazil's Cerrado demonstrates how extensive agricultural development can occur in a biologically rich region without technically being classified as forest loss.
Wetlands are another major frontier. Draining or cultivating wetlands alters hydrology, carbon storage, nutrient cycling and wildlife habitat. Agricultural conversion of wetlands in China and elsewhere demonstrates how food production can fundamentally transform entire regional landscapes.
Soils themselves are affected by conversion. Changing natural grasslands, forests and wetlands into intensively managed agricultural systems can alter carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus stocks as well as bacterial and fungal communities.
These effects matter because agricultural productivity ultimately depends upon functioning ecosystems. Expansion that degrades soil, water and climate regulation may increase production in the short term while weakening the ecological foundations of future agriculture.
Can More Food Be Produced Without Expanding Farmland?
A central question is whether rising agricultural demand necessarily requires continued conversion of natural ecosystems.
One strategy is agricultural intensification: increasing production on land that is already cultivated. Closing yield gaps, improving crop varieties, better soil management, irrigation efficiency and improved livestock productivity could potentially reduce pressure to clear additional land.
However, intensification does not automatically produce land conservation. Higher productivity can make farming more profitable and encourage additional expansion, a phenomenon sometimes described as a rebound effect. Productivity improvements are therefore most likely to spare natural ecosystems when combined with effective conservation policies.
Another debate concerns "land sparing" and "land sharing." Land sparing seeks high agricultural productivity on a smaller area while protecting separate natural habitats. Land sharing attempts to integrate biodiversity into lower-intensity agricultural landscapes. Research indicates that neither strategy is universally superior; outcomes depend on species, ecosystems, agricultural systems and local conditions.
Food demand itself is another important factor. Scenarios suggest that healthier diets, lower levels of food waste and changes in meat consumption could substantially reduce the amount of agricultural land required in the future.
Agricultural expansion can also be redirected toward previously cleared or degraded land. Research from Brazil, for example, identifies large areas where additional agricultural production could potentially occur without directly clearing remaining native vegetation.
Agroforestry, ecosystem restoration, integrated crop-livestock systems and climate-smart agriculture offer additional possibilities for combining production with environmental protection.
Ultimately, avoiding continued agricultural expansion requires more than improving farming techniques. Land-use regulation, protected areas, secure community land rights, commodity-supply-chain policies, changes in consumption and incentives for conservation can all influence whether higher agricultural production results in additional habitat destruction.
Conclusion
Agricultural expansion has helped support rising global food production, economic development and the livelihoods of billions of people. At the same time, it has become one of the major mechanisms through which human activity transforms the Earth's terrestrial ecosystems.
Its consequences extend well beyond deforestation. Cropland, pasture and plantations are replacing grasslands, savannas, wetlands and other natural environments, affecting biodiversity, carbon storage, soils, water systems and human communities.
The geography of expansion is constantly changing. Amazon cattle frontiers, Cerrado soybeans, Southeast Asian rubber and oil palm, African smallholder and commercial agriculture, Great Plains cropland and Asian wetland cultivation represent different versions of the same underlying competition for land.
Future food security does not necessarily require agricultural land to expand indefinitely. Higher productivity on existing farmland, reduced food waste, dietary changes, restoration, better land-use planning and stronger protection of natural ecosystems could reduce the pressure for further conversion.
The central challenge is therefore to separate growth in food production from growth in agricultural land area. How successfully societies accomplish that task will have major consequences for biodiversity, climate, rural communities and the remaining natural landscapes of the twenty-first century.
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Global Agricultural Expansion, Land Demand and Deforestation
| FAO | Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations | 2026-07-17
FAOSTAT data show cropland continuing to expand globally between 2001 and 2024, with Africa, South America and Southeast Asia contributing strongly to the increase.
| FAO | Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations | 2025-10-29
Global emissions data place agricultural land-use change, including deforestation and peatland degradation, within the broader climate footprint of food systems.
| FAO | Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations | 2025
FAO examines how agricultural expansion, forest loss and degradation interact with declining soil productivity and global food security.
| World Resources Institute | World Resources Institute | 2023
This analysis describes a growing global "land squeeze" in which food, timber, cities, climate mitigation and biodiversity conservation increasingly compete for finite land.
An overview of global cropland expansion explains where new farmland has appeared, what ecosystems are being converted, and why rising agricultural land demand poses risks for climate and biodiversity.
| Peter Potapov et al. | Nature Food | 2022
Global satellite mapping found that cropland expanded by roughly 9 percent between 2003 and 2019, with especially rapid growth in Africa and South America and nearly half of new cropland replacing natural vegetation.
| Various authors | Frontiers in Remote Sensing | 2022
A global Landsat-based land-cover dataset shows that cropland expansion greatly exceeded cropland contraction between 2000 and 2019, particularly in Africa and South America.
| FAO | Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations | 2021-11-06
FAO's global remote-sensing assessment concluded that agricultural expansion accounts for almost 90 percent of deforestation, with cropland and livestock grazing responsible for most conversion.
| Various authors | Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment | 2021-11
Satellite analysis examines how global cropland expansion changes agricultural productivity, evapotranspiration and water-resource consumption.
| FAO | Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations | 2021
The Global Forest Resources Assessment Remote Sensing Survey provides worldwide evidence connecting cropland expansion and livestock grazing with forest conversion between 2000 and 2018.
| FAO | Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations | 2021
FAO argues that rising food production must increasingly come from existing farmland, accompanied by forest protection, reduced waste and more efficient supply chains.
| Amy Molotoks et al. | Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B | 2020
Comparing several land-use models demonstrates substantial uncertainty about where future cropland will expand but consistently finds risks to biodiversity and carbon storage.
| Florian Zabel et al. | Nature Communications | 2019-06-28
Researchers compare future cropland expansion with agricultural intensification and identify major potential conflicts between food production, commodity markets and biodiversity.
| World Bank | World Bank | 2019
The World Bank argues that forest conservation policies must address agricultural economics and rural development because farming remains a dominant underlying pressure on tropical forests.
| Amy Molotoks et al. | Global Change Biology | 2018
Global projections to 2050 identify major potential losses of biodiversity habitat, vegetation carbon and soil carbon if cropland continues expanding into natural ecosystems.
| Laura Kehoe et al. | Nature Ecology & Evolution | 2017-07-17
Modeling suggests that future agricultural expansion could cause substantial losses of species richness and abundance across the Amazon and Afrotropics.
| Duncan Brack, Alison Glover and Laura Wellesley | Chatham House | 2016-01-28
This report examines how international demand for beef, soy, palm oil and other agricultural commodities transmits deforestation pressure through global supply chains.
| Jonathan Green et al. | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences | 2015
Agricultural expansion can produce very different biodiversity and carbon impacts depending on where new farmland is located and how clearing fragments remaining natural habitats.
| David Tilman et al. | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences | 2011
The study compares alternative ways of satisfying rising global food demand and finds that improving yields on existing farmland could substantially reduce future land clearing.
| Arild Angelsen | Journal of Development Economics | 1999
This influential analysis compares population, market and property-right explanations for agricultural frontier expansion and warns that some forms of intensification can increase incentives for deforestation.
Biodiversity, Protected Areas and Ecological Consequences
New research estimates that tens of millions of hectares of non-forest ecosystems were converted to annual cropland between 2005 and 2020.
| Various authors | Nature Communications | 2025
High-resolution mapping identifies global hotspots where agriculture is expanding into grasslands, savannas, wetlands and other natural ecosystems that receive less attention than forests.
| Various authors | Communications Earth & Environment | 2025
The study identifies biodiversity hotspots where small-ranged vertebrates face especially high pressure from expanding cropland.
| Various authors | PNAS Nexus | 2025
A systematic review finds that neither land sparing nor land sharing is universally superior and argues for context-specific combinations of conservation and farming strategies.
| Various authors | Nature Sustainability | 2024
Researchers trace biodiversity impacts of recent land conversion through international agricultural and food trade, showing how consumption can displace habitat loss abroad.
| Various authors | Science of the Total Environment | 2024
Research on subtropical coastal wetlands examines how conversion to cropland and aquaculture changes soil carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus stocks.
| World Bank | World Bank | 2024
The World Bank presents climate-smart agriculture as a strategy for increasing productivity and resilience without relying on continued expansion of farming into forests and other natural ecosystems.
| Marek Hanusch and Joaquim Bento de Souza Ferreira Filho | World Bank | 2023-07-05
The authors examine whether increasing productivity on Brazil's existing agricultural land can slow the extensive frontier model that continues to threaten the Amazon.
| Various authors | iScience | 2023-04-21
Researchers document accelerating cropland encroachment into high-integrity forests and protected areas during the twenty-first century.
| Various authors | Nature Sustainability | 2023
Satellite analysis finds accelerating cropland expansion inside protected areas, especially in large, less-strictly protected and Afrotropical reserves.
| Various authors | Nature Communications | 2023
Global scenarios explore how rising demand for food, feed and bioenergy could drive cropland expansion while interacting with climate and biodiversity policies.
| Various authors | Biological Conservation | 2023
Research from tropical India finds agroforests and secondary wooded habitats can retain many forest birds, although some rare specialists remain dependent on intact protected forests.
| Various authors | Science of the Total Environment | 2022
Forest-to-cropland conversion in northeastern China significantly altered bacterial and fungal communities, illustrating below-ground ecological effects of agricultural expansion.
| Various authors | Communications Earth & Environment | 2021
Modeling across European farming regions shows that converting remaining semi-natural habitat to increase food production could produce substantial biodiversity losses for relatively modest production gains in some regions.
| Various authors | Nature Sustainability | 2020
Crop modeling suggests that closing yield gaps and reallocating crops could dramatically reduce the amount of land required for current agricultural production.
| Various authors | Geoderma | 2020
A global meta-analysis examines losses and changes in soil carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus following conversion of grasslands to agricultural land.
| Various authors | Ecological Indicators | 2020
Land-change modeling around India's Shoolpaneshwar Wildlife Sanctuary projects continuing agricultural expansion and major future losses of natural vegetation without stronger intervention.
| Various authors | Remote Sensing | 2020
Land-cover mapping across the Lower Mekong Basin documents permanent agriculture expanding into previously forested areas alongside shifting cultivation and industrial plantations.
| Various authors | Ecological Economics | 2018
An integrated economic and ecological assessment examines feedbacks between expanding modern agriculture, biodiversity loss and agricultural productivity.
| Various authors | Applied Geography | 2016
Resettlement of forest pastoralists in northern India created new agricultural expansion zones while former settlements inside a national park experienced vegetation recovery.
African Agricultural Frontiers
| Various authors | Forest Policy and Economics | 2026
Analysis across sub-Saharan Africa identifies expansion of agricultural land as a particularly robust structural driver of deforestation associated with population growth and food demand.
| Various authors | Trees, Forests and People | 2026
Research from the inner Congo Basin links forest-cover decline to agricultural demand, population pressures and small-scale farming while emphasizing strong regional differences in drivers.
| Various authors | Discover Sustainability | 2026
Three decades of landscape change in Tanzanian forest reserves reveal agricultural expansion, shifting cultivation, settlement and charcoal production progressively transforming miombo woodland.
| Simon M. Mugatha et al. | Scientific Reports | 2024-01-19
Research in Kenya's Lake Victoria Basin examines how increasing cultivated land and changing land use affect bird species richness and diversity.
| Various authors | Land | 2024
Analysis of the Mara and wider Mau River Basin identifies agricultural expansion as a major recent driver of land-cover change with implications for wildlife and biodiversity.
| Various authors | Geo-spatial Information Science | 2024
National analysis of Nigeria finds cropland nearly doubling as tree cover, grassland and wetlands declined across several agroecological zones between 2000 and 2022.
| Various authors | Trees, Forests and People | 2023
Household research in Ethiopia finds that economic pressures, household growth, timber markets and livelihood needs can push or pull farmers toward expanding farmland into forests.
| Various authors | Geocarto International | 2023
Remote sensing of Zambia's forest reserves shows widespread agricultural encroachment, with cropland growth and population pressure threatening the integrity of protected forests.
| Various authors | Land Use Policy | 2023
Research in Uganda finds cash-crop expansion and internal migration significantly associated with forest conversion, particularly where commercial agriculture reaches accessible forest land.
| Various authors | Modeling Earth Systems and Environment | 2022
Cropland in Kenya's Trans Nzoia County expanded substantially between 1990 and 2020 at the expense of forests, wetlands and grasslands.
| Various authors | Remote Sensing Applications: Society and Environment | 2022
Satellite observations document accelerating agricultural expansion within Kenya's Greater Mau Forest Complex and associated changes in forests, grasslands and cropland.
| Various authors | Environmental Challenges | 2022
Case studies from Ethiopia and Ghana examine who benefits and who loses when agricultural production expands into previously uncultivated landscapes.
| Various authors | Sustainability | 2022
Land-cover analysis along Kenya's Standard Gauge Railway corridor examines agricultural growth alongside settlement, infrastructure and other drivers reshaping landscapes.
| Hemant G. Tripathi et al. | Biodiversity and Conservation | 2021-07-14
A Mozambique study follows tree and mammal communities along a gradient of agricultural expansion in miombo savanna and finds steep biodiversity declines at high levels of habitat conversion.
| Various authors | Ecological Informatics | 2021
Continental analysis shows substantial African cropland expansion between 1992 and 2015 and associated declines in natural vegetation.
| Various authors | Land Use Policy | 2021
A national study of Zambia finds that smallholder cropland expansion into forests remains an important component of deforestation and is not automatically prevented by adoption of climate-smart agriculture.
| World Bank | World Bank | 2021
Ghana's Cocoa Forest REDD+ program describes low-yield, expansive cocoa and food-crop farming as major drivers of forest conversion in the country's High Forest Zone.
| Various authors | Forests | 2020-02-04
A nationwide analysis of Tanzanian protected areas finds agricultural expansion and wood harvesting contributing to forest loss and reduced connectivity between conservation areas.
| Ayele Almaw Fenta et al. | Ecosystem Services | 2020
The study examines how approximately 20 million hectares of cropland expansion in sub-Saharan Africa affected forests, shrublands, land degradation and ecosystem-service values.
| Various authors | Journal of Environmental Management | 2019
African land-use scenarios test whether agricultural intensification and land-sparing strategies could reduce biodiversity losses while supporting food production.
| Various authors | Journal of Land Use Science | 2019
Research in northeastern Madagascar traces agricultural expansion from 1990 to 2017 and examines how protected areas and changing vanilla and clove prices influenced forest conversion.
| Various authors | Remote Sensing | 2017
Agricultural expansion and intensification around Mount Kenya are mapped from Landsat imagery, including conversion of natural habitat and incursions toward protected areas.
| Various authors | Land | 2015
Multi-temporal satellite analysis in northeastern Madagascar finds continued forest loss through shifting cultivation despite evidence of agricultural intensification elsewhere in the landscape.
| George F. Masanja | Journal of Environment and Earth Science | 2013
Research in Tanzania's Sikonge District documents cultivated-land expansion into miombo woodland driven by population growth, cereal and tobacco farming, fuelwood demand and charcoal production.
| Petri Pellikka et al. | Elsevier | 2013
A detailed Taita Hills case study examines how agricultural expansion affects forests, water resources, biodiversity, soil erosion and livelihoods in southeastern Kenya.
| Various authors | African Journal of Ecology | 2010-11-10
A review of Uganda's forests identifies agricultural land expansion, population growth, illegal settlements and forest-product demand as major pressures on natural forest biodiversity.
Modeling of Kenya's Taita Hills shows how roads, markets, water access and existing fields influence agricultural expansion within an important biodiversity hotspot.
| E.N. Mwavu and E.T.F. Witkowski | Land Degradation & Development | 2008
Around Uganda's Budongo Forest Reserve, rapidly expanding sugarcane and other agriculture replaced forest and woodland while creating conflicts between farming and conservation.
Agricultural expansion in eastern Madagascar is shown to depend not only on terrain and settlement patterns but also on institutions controlling access to land.
Evidence from Tanzania indicates that agricultural prices and market profitability can be powerful determinants of farmers' decisions to clear forest for additional land.
Southeast Asian Agricultural Frontiers, Rubber and Oil Palm
| Yuxi Wang and Lin Zhang | Journal of Forestry Research | 2026-02-25
Remote-sensing analysis finds substantial conversion of Southeast Asian primary forest to rubber plantations and evaluates the accompanying losses of ecosystem services.
| Various authors | Nature Communications | 2026
Researchers assess remaining natural forests inside logging, oil-palm, rubber and timber concessions in Southeast Asia and their potential value for conservation.
| Various authors | Journal of Land Use Science | 2025-11-05
Spatial scenarios in Central Kalimantan examine how smallholder oil-palm production might expand on already-cleared land while protecting remaining forests and peatlands.
| Various authors | Journal of Environmental Management | 2025
Three decades of data reveal changing patterns and drivers of conversion from forests to food crops, oil palm and rubber plantations throughout Southeast Asia.
| Various authors | Forest Policy and Economics | 2025
Analysis across developing ASEAN countries finds agricultural expansion significantly associated with forest-cover decline alongside population and economic change.
| Carlos Souza Jr. | Nature | 2023-10-24
A News & Views article explains new satellite methods for measuring rubber-driven deforestation and why previous estimates substantially underestimated the problem.
| H. Manjari Jayathilake et al. | Applied Geography | 2023-01
Research explores how profitable oil-palm expansion can replace rubber plantations and potentially displace future rubber expansion into Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar.
| Various authors | Nature | 2023
High-resolution satellite mapping estimates millions of hectares of Southeast Asian forest loss associated with rubber cultivation and identifies extensive plantation development in Key Biodiversity Areas.
| Various authors | American Journal of Agricultural Economics | 2022
Research among Indonesian oil-palm smallholders finds that productivity improvements can spare land but may also create rebound effects that encourage further farm expansion.
| Various authors | Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems | 2022
Participatory mapping in Laos tracks forest conversion as rubber, bananas, sugarcane and other commercial crops transformed a tropical agricultural frontier.
| Victoria Junquera et al. | Environmental Science & Policy | 2020
The northern Laos rubber boom demonstrates how commodity prices, imitation, finance and forest-protection rules combine to shape smallholder agricultural expansion.
| Various authors | PLOS ONE | 2019
A study of Peninsular Malaysia examines the determinants and constraints of oil-palm expansion and its relationship to forest and peatland conversion.
| Various authors | Applied Geography | 2019
Northwestern Cambodia lost extensive forest as migrant smallholders expanded maize, cassava, peanut and soybean production into newly accessible uplands.
| Kris A.G. Wyckhuys et al. | Communications Biology | 2019
A regional study links rapid cassava expansion with forest loss and shows how biological pest control can raise yields while potentially reducing pressure for additional agricultural land.
| Various authors | Ecological Economics | 2018
Farm-level evidence from Sumatra suggests stronger property rights can encourage investment in existing farmland and potentially reduce incentives for continued expansion into forests.
| Various authors | Journal of Land Use Science | 2018
Regional analysis maps the rapid expansion of rubber and other tree-based boom crops across mainland Southeast Asia and their extensive replacement of forest.
| Vijay et al. | PLOS ONE | 2016
Global analysis compares oil-palm expansion and deforestation across major producing regions and evaluates associated biodiversity loss.
| Various authors | Global Environmental Change | 2015
The rapid expansion of rubber plantations into environmentally marginal and biodiversity-rich areas of mainland Southeast Asia is examined as both an ecological and livelihood risk.
| Various authors | Applied Geography | 2012
Research in Cambodia traces settlement, cassava expansion and biofuel markets as drivers of forest conversion and changing smallholder livelihoods.
| Various authors | Conservation Letters | 2008
The study evaluates the biodiversity consequences of replacing tropical forests and other land covers with oil-palm plantations in Indonesia and Malaysia.
Amazon, Cerrado, Gran Chaco and South American Frontiers
Commodity-specific analysis traces forest replacement associated with cattle, oil palm, soy, cocoa, rubber, coffee and plantation wood fiber.
| Various authors | Global Change Biology | 2026
Research in the Argentine Chaco finds that agricultural fields degrade neighboring forest well beyond the cleared footprint through persistent and expanding edge effects.
| María Vallejos et al. | Ambio | 2025-07-31
Agricultural expansion in the Dry Chaco has reduced forests, natural-resource access and water availability for hundreds of forest-dependent Indigenous communities.
| Rafael Mingoti and Hilton Luis Ferraz da Silveira | FAO AGRIS | 2025
This analysis reviews deforestation and agricultural expansion across Brazil's Amazon and Cerrado biomes from 2000 through 2024.
| Various authors | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences | 2025
Researchers map land claims and forest demarcations as early indicators of commodity-frontier expansion in the Gran Chaco before full-scale deforestation occurs.
| Various authors | Land Use Policy | 2025
Research from Salta, Argentina examines complex interactions among large-scale land acquisitions, forest clearing and zoning policies within an active agricultural frontier.
| Various authors | Acta Amazonica | 2025
A broad review identifies cattle ranching and agricultural expansion as central drivers of Amazon deforestation and examines their consequences for biodiversity and ecosystem functioning.
| María Agostina Bracalenti et al. | Hydrology and Earth System Sciences | 2024
Climate modeling indicates that large-scale agricultural expansion in the Dry Chaco can weaken regional water cycling and reduce precipitation following extensive vegetation removal.
| R.B. de A. Aragão et al. | Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems | 2022-12-23
Interviews with soy producers explore the economic, regulatory and cultural factors influencing individual decisions to clear remaining native Cerrado vegetation.
| Various authors | Nature Sustainability | 2021
Satellite mapping shows that South America's soybean area more than doubled between 2000 and 2019, with important direct and indirect effects on forests, savannas and pasture.
| Various authors | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences | 2021
Mapping thousands of smallholder homesteads across the Gran Chaco shows industrial agricultural expansion progressively marginalizing people dependent on remaining forests.
| Various authors | World Development | 2021
Fieldwork in Brazil's Matopiba region finds that rapid soy expansion can concentrate economic benefits while restricting local communities' access to land, water and traditional livelihoods.
| Various authors | Sustainability | 2020
Policy scenarios for the Amazon and Cerrado evaluate how much agriculture could expand on already-cleared land and how much native vegetation remains vulnerable to legal clearing.
| Various authors | Frontiers in Forests and Global Change | 2020
The Cerrado Working Group is examined as an example of commodity-focused governance attempting to control soy-driven habitat conversion across an agricultural landscape.
| P.R.M. Pereira, E.L. Bolfe, T.C.S. Rodrigues and E.E. Sano | ISPRS Archives | 2020
Landsat analysis documents rapid soybean-driven agricultural expansion and substantial loss of native vegetation in Maranhão's portion of the Brazilian Cerrado.
| Lisa L. Rausch et al. | Conservation Letters | 2019-08-27
Property-level analysis finds soybean expansion responsible for a significant share of Cerrado vegetation conversion while showing large opportunities to redirect production toward previously cleared land.
| Various authors | Science Advances | 2019
Modeling suggests that extending the Amazon Soy Moratorium into the Cerrado could prevent millions of hectares of future native-vegetation conversion.
| Various authors | World Development | 2018
Research investigates how environmental regulations influence soy and beef production, trade, intensification and possible displacement of deforestation across South America.
| Various authors | Global Environmental Change | 2018
Mato Grosso is used to examine whether stronger forest conservation policies encourage intensification of existing cropland and pasture rather than frontier expansion.
| Various authors | Sustainability | 2018
The study considers agricultural intensification in Brazil's Cerrado as a strategy for increasing food production while reducing deforestation pressure in the Amazon.
| Various authors | Agricultural Economics Research | 2018
Economic modeling explores whether future Brazilian sugarcane expansion can occur mainly on existing pasture and cropland without creating major additional pressure on forests or food production.
| Various authors | Land Use Policy | 2016
Agricultural expansion across Argentina's semiarid Chaco shows a contagious frontier pattern in which new clearing increasingly clusters around previously converted land.
| NASA Earth Observatory | NASA | 2015
Satellite imagery illustrates how soybean expansion increasingly shifted toward Brazil's Cerrado after direct soy-driven clearing declined sharply in the Amazon.
| Various authors | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences | 2014
Economic modeling suggests that increasing cattle productivity in Brazil could reduce pressure for pasture expansion and forest clearing under appropriate policies.
| Marcia N. Macedo et al. | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences | 2012
Mato Grosso provides evidence that soybean production can grow while direct forest conversion falls when expansion shifts toward previously cleared land and stronger deforestation controls are implemented.
The study links rapid soybean-frontier expansion and deforestation in Argentina's Dry Chaco with major demographic and social changes.
| Robert Walker et al. | Geoforum | 2009
This analysis of Amazon cattle ranching describes how infrastructure, markets, trade and rising land values created economic conditions for continued agricultural-frontier expansion.
| Marcelo Fragomeni Simon and Fernando Luis Garagorry | Environmental Conservation | 2005
Long-term agricultural statistics document the emergence of new cattle and soybean production centers across the Brazilian Amazon from the 1970s through the early twenty-first century.
| J. B. Veiga, J.F. Tourrand, R. Poccard-Chapuis and M.G. Piketty | FAO | 2004
This overview examines the enormous expansion of cattle ranching across Amazon agricultural frontiers and its central role in converting cleared forest to pasture.
Commodity Expansion and Indirect Land-Use Change
| Thomas Addoah et al. | Sustainable Development | 2025
The implementation of corporate forest policies in West African cocoa supply chains is assessed for effectiveness, equity and the ability to reduce continued expansion into forests.
| Various authors | Environmental Research: Food Systems | 2025
Spatial analysis distinguishes direct cocoa-driven deforestation in Ghana from indirect forest loss associated with displacement of other agricultural land uses.
| Various authors | Cleaner and Circular Bioeconomy | 2025
A systematic evidence map reviews how coffee cultivation and management affect biodiversity across tropical coffee-producing countries.
| Mongabay staff | Mongabay | 2023-11
This overview examines coffee and cacao as agricultural-frontier crops in the Pan-Amazon and discusses forest clearing, shade systems, smallholder livelihoods and biodiversity.
| Various authors | Nature Food | 2023
High-resolution cocoa maps for Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana reveal extensive plantation development and links between cocoa cultivation, protected areas and forest loss.
| Various authors | Applied Geography | 2022
Research maps cocoa-driven forest loss in Ghana and considers how land-use policy can support deforestation-free cocoa supply chains.
| Various authors | Scientific African | 2020
Field and satellite evidence from Ghana shows agricultural expansion, including cocoa and oil-palm cultivation, progressively encroaching into forest reserves.
| Various authors | Land | 2020
Spatial analysis shows where sugarcane expanded in São Paulo and which previous land uses—especially grasslands and annual cropland—were replaced.
| A. Egeskog et al. | Biomass and Bioenergy | 2014
The study models greenhouse-gas emissions and direct land-use changes associated with expansion of Brazil's sugarcane ethanol industry.
The study finds evidence that sugarcane expansion in southern Brazil can indirectly influence Amazon deforestation by displacing cattle ranching toward frontier regions.
Grasslands and North American Cropland Expansion
| Various authors | Rangeland Ecology & Management | 2021
Researchers argue that integrated crop-livestock systems can improve farm resilience while reducing incentives to convert remaining Great Plains grasslands to cropland.
| Various authors | Land Use Policy | 2021
A producer survey examines whether management-intensive grazing and other economic factors encourage conversion of marginal cropland back to grass-based agriculture.
| Tyler J. Lark et al. | Nature Communications | 2020-09-09
U.S. cropland expansion is shown to produce relatively modest crop output on newly converted lands while imposing substantial costs on wildlife habitat.
| Various authors | Ecological Indicators | 2019
Modeling identifies portions of the North American Great Plains at greatest risk of agricultural conversion and highlights climate as an important predictor.
| Various authors | Global Ecology and Biogeography | 2018
Historical reconstruction traces more than a century and a half of U.S. cropland expansion, abandonment and conversion of forests, shrublands and grasslands.
| Various authors | Land Use Policy | 2017
A farm-level survey documents grassland-to-cropland conversion in the eastern Dakotas and examines the economic and farm characteristics associated with expansion.
| Various authors | Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment | 2013
Long-term analysis of the American Plains explores how agricultural economics, subsidies and conservation programs influence grassland conversion and recultivation.
The report evaluates conversion of Northern Plains grasslands to crops and the role of crop insurance, commodity programs and disaster assistance.
| Mark A. Drummond | U.S. Geological Survey / Great Plains Research | 2007
Historical satellite analysis documents alternating periods of agricultural expansion and grassland recovery in the western Great Plains.
| National Research Council | National Academies / NCBI Bookshelf | 2005
A long-term assessment of population and land use in the Great Plains describes ecological consequences of widespread conversion of native grassland to agriculture.
South Asia, China, Central Asia and Wetland Conversion
| Various authors | Discover Forests | 2026-06-25
Expansion of apple and other horticultural production in Himachal Pradesh is linked to forest encroachment and major land-cover change in mountainous northern India.
| Tusar Kanti Paria and Pinki Kumari | Next Research | 2026
Thirty years of satellite observations in West Bengal show agricultural and fallow land expanding as forest area contracted, illustrating local ecosystem consequences of land conversion.
| Various authors | Land | 2026
Scenario modeling for Nepal through 2050 identifies pathways in which continued agricultural expansion and development could produce substantial additional forest loss.
| Various authors | Journal of Environmental Management | 2025-01
Thirty years of Chinese land-use change show cropland increasingly migrating toward mountains and wetlands, raising both ecological and food-security concerns.
| Various authors | Frontiers in Environmental Science | 2025
A century-long assessment of India's Brahmaputra floodplain finds agricultural encroachment contributing to forest and grassland changes around an important wildlife landscape.
Landsat time-series analysis maps decades of agricultural expansion, abandonment and urban conversion throughout Egypt.
| Various authors | Journal of Peasant Studies | 2021-10-28
Long-term research in Nepal examines how migration, demographic change and new livelihood strategies are reshaping relationships among forests, farming and agricultural land.
| Various authors | Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface | 2019
Research examines how wetland reclamation and the expansion of paddy fields changed local land cover and temperature patterns in China's Sanjiang Plain.
| Various authors | Science of the Total Environment | 2018
A national geospatial analysis estimates that agricultural encroachment accounted for a large share of China's natural wetland losses between 1990 and 2010.
| Various authors | Remote Sensing | 2015
A national land-cover reconstruction documents several decades of Indian agricultural expansion, forest conversion and other major land-use changes.
| Roland Kraemer et al. | Environmental Research Letters | 2015
Historical reconstruction of Kazakhstan's Virgin Lands region tracks massive grassland-to-cropland conversion, later abandonment and the potential for recultivating previously farmed land.
| Various authors | The Scientific World Journal | 2013-08-20
Remote sensing of the Sanjiang Plain documents transformation of marsh landscapes into intensive agricultural systems.
| Various authors | Journal of Environmental Management | 2012
Analysis of China's Muleng-Xingkai Plain finds extensive wetland shrinkage and fragmentation closely linked to agricultural cultivation.
| FAO | Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations | 2011
FAO's Southeast Asia forestry outlook identifies cash-crop plantations and agricultural expansion as central drivers of regional forest conversion.
| Krishna Bahadur K.C. | Forest Policy and Economics | 2011
Agricultural land in a Nepalese hill watershed expanded substantially into forests, particularly at higher elevations where households faced lower incomes and greater food constraints.
| Various authors | Environmental Monitoring and Assessment | 2009
A thirty-year landscape analysis finds that agricultural development became the dominant replacement land use for natural wetlands in Northeast China's Sanjiang Plain.
| Various authors | Environmental Conservation | 2008
Remote sensing in India's Western Ghats finds agricultural expansion and infrastructure development driving degradation while protected areas retain greater capacity for forest recovery.
| Jianguo Liu et al. | Geophysical Research Letters | 2005
Landsat analysis of China during the 1990s documents conversion of forests, grasslands and wetlands to cropland alongside rapid urban loss of existing farmland.
| Various authors | Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment | 2004
In India's central Himalaya, farmland expanded into community and protected forests while changing crop choices increased soil erosion, runoff and dependence on forest resources.
Europe and Long-Term Agricultural Land Dynamics
| Zander Samuel Venter et al. | Nature Communications | 2026-04-13
High-resolution satellite analysis examines Europe's continuing loss of natural land and cropland to built development, illustrating another source of pressure on finite agricultural land.
| Christopher L. Crawford et al. | Nature Sustainability | 2024-10-28
Global analysis shows that cropland abandonment can create habitat gains for many species, although recultivation and simultaneous new agricultural conversion can erase those benefits.
| Various authors | Land Use Policy | 2022-01
A systematic review of European abandoned farmland evaluates spontaneous rewilding, recultivation and other possible future land-use trajectories.
| Various authors | Nature Communications | 2020
European land-cover data reveal large areas of both agricultural abandonment and cropland expansion and examine their effects on regional climate.
| World Bank | World Bank | 2020
The report examines how agricultural-frontier expansion in Latin America and the Caribbean interacts with ecosystem services, deforestation and sustainable food production.
| Various authors | Science of the Total Environment | 2018
European analysis examines climatic, socioeconomic and farm-management factors that determine where agricultural land is abandoned and potentially available for recultivation.
| Various authors | Regional Environmental Change | 2016
Scenario modeling maps possible future European agricultural intensification, abandonment, recultivation and expansion under different socioeconomic pathways.
| World Bank | World Bank | 2012-05-30
The World Bank describes integrated landscape management as a way to increase food production while limiting agricultural pressure on forests, water supplies and other natural resources.
| Erez Hatna and Martha M. Bakker | Ecosystems | 2011-05-10
European data show that agricultural abandonment and expansion can occur simultaneously and that new arable land is not restricted to simple patterns of land suitability.
| FAO | State of the World's Forests | 2003
A foundational FAO discussion examines long-term relationships between expanding agriculture, growing consumption and forest loss around the world.
Land Acquisitions, Land Rights and Agricultural Expansion
| Workineh Asmare Kassie et al. | Journal of Development Economics | 2026
Large-scale agricultural land acquisitions in Ethiopia are associated with persistent forest and tree-cover losses without clear evidence of corresponding increases in agricultural production.
| Various authors | Land Use Policy | 2026
Research in Peru's El Sira region links agricultural expansion, land grabbing and forest degradation with long-standing state-supported colonization and dispossession of Indigenous territories.
| Business & Human Rights Resource Centre | Business & Human Rights Resource Centre | 2025-12-08
Reporting on Laos connects rubber-plantation expansion with forest conversion, redistribution of customary land and threats to Indigenous and rural livelihoods.
| Insa Flachsbarth and Christoph Kubitza | GIGA | 2025
This policy analysis examines human-rights and deforestation risks associated with large land acquisitions in palm-oil, rubber and sugarcane supply chains.
| Various authors | Communications Earth & Environment | 2025
A counterfactual study in southwestern Amazonia finds Indigenous governance has prevented substantial forest loss in landscapes facing cattle ranching, roads and agribusiness expansion.
| Kyle Frankel Davis et al. | Environmental Research Letters | 2023
Analysis of transnational agricultural land acquisitions across 40 countries finds extensive overlap with forests and biodiversity-rich ecosystems in the Global South.
| Various authors | World Development | 2021
Research across Africa finds many agricultural land acquisitions poorly aligned with national food-security needs while carrying significant risks of deforestation and land conflict.
| Kyle Frankel Davis et al. | Nature Geoscience | 2020
A multicountry analysis finds large-scale land acquisitions associated with elevated tropical forest loss, particularly for oil-palm, wood-fiber and tree-plantation investments.
| Various authors | Forest Policy and Economics | 2019
Cross-country evidence from Latin America suggests recognition of Indigenous and community land rights can slow agricultural expansion into forests.
| Various authors | Global Environmental Change | 2015
Analysis of Latin American land tenure finds that forests controlled by Indigenous peoples and local communities are associated with stronger long-term land-sparing outcomes.
Grasslands, Wetlands and Other Non-Forest Ecosystems
| Various authors | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences | 2026
A global supply-chain analysis finds natural grasslands and open wetlands being converted for crops and pasture at rates that can exceed conversion of many forested landscapes.
| Various authors | Earth's Future | 2026
Continental analysis of Asian drylands documents continuing cropland expansion, particularly in Central Asia, alongside major changes in ecosystem condition.
| Various authors | Agricultural and Forest Meteorology | 2025
Wetland conversion to cropland in Northeast China substantially altered ecosystem carbon balances and increased overall greenhouse-gas emissions.
| Rafaella Maciel et al. | Insect Conservation and Diversity | 2023
Conversion of Brazilian Cerrado savanna to exotic cattle pasture reduced both taxonomic and functional diversity of dung-beetle communities.
| Various authors | Ecological Indicators | 2023
Three decades of data from the Tibetan Plateau reveal extensive two-way conversion between grassland and cropland driven by climate, accessibility, economics and government land policies.
| Various authors | Science of the Total Environment | 2022
Conversion of northern Chinese grasslands to cropland significantly altered soil microbial communities involved in nitrogen cycling.
| T.B. Craft et al. | Frontiers in Environmental Science | 2022
Long-term land records from the Netherlands illustrate repeated conversion between permanent grassland and cropland and the difficulty of capturing its biodiversity consequences.
| Liming Lai et al. | Crop & Pasture Science | 2022
Field experiments examine how converting long-established grassland to tilled cropland changes soil chemistry, microbial communities and greenhouse-gas emissions.
| Various authors | Nature Communications | 2022
Global analysis separates the biodiversity impacts of converting natural ecosystems to agriculture from those caused by increasing land-use intensity after conversion.
| Xuesong Zhang et al. | Environmental Research Letters | 2021
Grassland conversion to corn and soybean production across the U.S. Midwest increased modeled soil erosion, nutrient loss and soil-carbon depletion.
Alternatives to Continued Agricultural Expansion
| Salomé Kahindo | Review of Agricultural, Food and Environmental Studies | 2026-08-11
The study evaluates the circumstances under which land sparing or land sharing can satisfy food demand while reducing pressure to expand cultivated land.
| Various authors | Nature | 2026
Multimodel scenarios suggest that healthier diets, higher productivity and reduced food waste could allow global agricultural land area to decline rather than continue expanding by 2050.
| Various authors | Biological Conservation | 2026
Bird-community research in Colombian cattle landscapes compares land sparing and land sharing as strategies for producing food without continuing habitat conversion.
| UNEP | UN Environment Programme | 2024-07-08
UNEP highlights agricultural innovations intended to increase production while reducing further clearing, land degradation and biodiversity loss.
| Various authors | Sustainability in Debate | 2024
Landsat mapping shows decades of sugarcane expansion in São Paulo largely replacing pasture and other agricultural uses, illustrating possibilities for expansion without direct forest conversion.
| Various authors | Land | 2023-02-28
Analysis of Brazilian sugarcane shows that most recent expansion occurred on existing agricultural land rather than directly replacing natural vegetation.
| FAO | Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations | 2023
Farmer-led ecosystem restoration, agroforestry and improved management are presented as ways for family farmers to maintain food production while reducing pressure for further agricultural expansion.
| Various authors | Biological Conservation | 2021
Agricultural scientists review the land-sparing versus land-sharing debate and argue for better integration of production performance, biodiversity and ecosystem services.
| Various authors | Agronomy for Sustainable Development | 2018
A review of Brazilian sugarcane evaluates direct and indirect land-use change, productivity, environmental impacts and options for more sustainable expansion.
| I.Y.R. Odegard and E. van der Voet | Ecological Economics | 2014-01
Several 2050 food scenarios demonstrate how diets, meat consumption, waste, fertilizer and water use influence the amount of agricultural land required.
