Future Scenarios for Global Biodiversity
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Future Scenarios for Global Biodiversity
The future of global biodiversity is not predetermined. Scientific models, international assessments, conservation scenarios, and policy studies describe a wide range of possible futures extending to 2050, 2100, and beyond. Some scenarios envision continued declines in species, habitats, and ecosystem integrity, while others explore combinations of conservation, restoration, sustainable agriculture, climate action, technological change, and economic reform capable of slowing or potentially reversing biodiversity loss.
The differences among these futures are largely determined by human choices. Land use, climate policy, agriculture, food consumption, energy development, pollution, urbanization, invasive species, resource extraction, economic systems, and conservation policies all influence future biodiversity. These drivers also interact, meaning that actions intended to solve one environmental problem can either support or undermine biodiversity goals.
Increasingly, biodiversity scenario research therefore moves beyond simple projections of species loss. It examines how ecological change is connected with food, water, climate, energy, health, economics, governance, justice, and human well-being.
From Predicting Decline to Exploring Alternative Futures
Early global biodiversity scenarios primarily attempted to estimate how major pressures such as habitat conversion, climate change, nitrogen pollution, and biological invasions might affect species and ecosystems. These studies helped establish that biodiversity could decline substantially during the twenty-first century if existing trends continued.
Modern scenario research increasingly asks a broader question: what choices could produce a different future?
Instead of presenting a single prediction, researchers develop alternative pathways. These may include business-as-usual development, high-consumption economies, regional rivalry, sustainable development, aggressive conservation, nature-positive development, or combinations of these approaches.
Scenario modeling allows researchers to compare how different assumptions about population, economic growth, consumption, technology, governance, climate policy, and land management could influence biodiversity.
These scenarios should not be understood as precise predictions. They are tools for exploring possibilities, identifying risks, examining trade-offs, and testing policies before those policies are implemented.
The Nature Futures Framework
An important development in biodiversity scenario planning is the Nature Futures Framework. Rather than concentrating only on undesirable futures, the framework encourages researchers and communities to imagine positive relationships between people and nature.
Nature-positive futures can emphasize different values. One future may place greater emphasis on the intrinsic value of ecosystems and species. Another may focus on the benefits nature provides to people. A third may emphasize relationships in which people see themselves as part of nature rather than separate from it.
The framework allows these different perspectives to be incorporated into scientific models and policy discussions.
This represents a significant change in environmental scenario planning. Instead of asking only how much biodiversity might disappear, researchers can ask what a desirable biodiversity future would look like and what transformations would be necessary to reach it.
Business-as-Usual Futures
Many scenarios indicate that continuation of current development patterns is likely to produce continued biodiversity decline.
Agricultural expansion, infrastructure construction, urban growth, habitat fragmentation, resource extraction, climate change, pollution, and invasive species can continue reducing the abundance and distribution of species even where some conservation measures are implemented.
Protected areas alone may therefore be insufficient if ecological pressures continue increasing outside their boundaries.
Similarly, relatively sustainable economic development does not automatically produce biodiversity recovery. Scenario studies indicate that biodiversity can continue declining unless conservation and restoration are combined with broader changes in production, consumption, land use, and environmental governance.
This distinction is important. Slowing biodiversity loss is not the same as stopping it, and stopping biodiversity loss is not necessarily the same as restoring ecosystems that have already been degraded.
Bending the Curve of Biodiversity Loss
One of the central ideas in global biodiversity modeling is "bending the curve" of biodiversity loss.
Under a declining trajectory, biodiversity continues falling over time. Bending the curve means first slowing that decline, then stopping it, and ultimately producing recovery.
Research summarized in the source material suggests that no single policy is likely to accomplish this globally. Protected areas are important, but conservation strategies become substantially more effective when combined with other transformations.
These can include:
- protecting remaining natural ecosystems;
- expanding and improving protected areas;
- restoring degraded ecosystems;
- reconnecting fragmented habitats;
- reducing deforestation and habitat conversion;
- improving agricultural productivity without expanding into natural ecosystems;
- reducing environmentally damaging consumption;
- reducing food waste;
- shifting some diets toward less land-intensive foods;
- controlling pollution;
- preventing biological invasions;
- reducing greenhouse gas emissions; and
- incorporating biodiversity into economic and development decisions.
The strongest recovery scenarios generally treat biodiversity conservation as part of a wider transformation of human systems rather than as an isolated environmental program.
Climate Change and Biodiversity
Climate change is one of the most important forces shaping future biodiversity.
Species are already responding to changing temperatures, rainfall patterns, drought, wildfire, extreme heat, ocean warming, acidification, sea-level rise, and other climatic changes. Future warming can intensify these pressures and cause suitable climatic conditions to move geographically.
Species may respond by shifting their ranges, adapting to new conditions, declining, or disappearing locally.
Mountain species can face particularly severe problems because populations moving toward cooler elevations eventually run out of higher ground. Marine species may shift toward cooler waters or greater depths. Freshwater organisms can be constrained by river networks, dams, changing streamflow, and water temperature.
Extreme events may become increasingly important. Heat waves, droughts, fires, marine heat waves, and other episodic disturbances can cause ecological changes more rapidly than gradual changes in average climate.
Climate Refugia and Ecological Connectivity
Future conservation planning increasingly emphasizes climate refugia—areas expected to remain relatively suitable for species despite broader climatic change.
Identifying and protecting refugia may allow populations to persist while surrounding environments become less favorable.
Connectivity is equally important. A suitable habitat may provide little benefit if species cannot reach it.
Wildlife corridors, connected protected-area networks, river connectivity, forest corridors, and climate-responsive marine conservation can therefore become increasingly important as species distributions shift.
Future conservation systems may need to be designed as dynamic networks rather than collections of isolated protected areas.
The Future of Protected Areas
Protected areas remain central to most positive biodiversity scenarios, particularly under international commitments such as the goal of conserving 30 percent of land and ocean areas.
However, future climate and land-use change may alter the effectiveness of today's reserves.
A protected area established around the current distribution of a species may eventually experience climatic conditions that no longer support that species. Development surrounding a reserve can also isolate populations and prevent movement into newly suitable habitats.
Future protected-area planning therefore increasingly considers:
- climate refugia;
- ecological connectivity;
- future species distributions;
- Key Biodiversity Areas;
- surrounding land-use pressures;
- ecosystem services;
- carbon storage;
- conservation costs; and
- impacts on local and Indigenous communities.
The issue is therefore not simply how much land or ocean is protected, but where protection occurs, how areas are connected, how effectively they are managed, and whether they remain ecologically valuable as environmental conditions change.
Oceans and Marine Biodiversity
Marine biodiversity faces a distinct set of future pressures.
Ocean warming can redistribute species over enormous distances. Acidification, deoxygenation, marine heat waves, changing currents, sea-level rise, fishing, pollution, and coastal development can further alter marine ecosystems.
Coral reefs are particularly vulnerable because reef-building organisms must cope with warming and acidification while also maintaining enough growth to respond to rising sea levels and physical disturbance.
Marine protected areas can reduce fishing and other local pressures, but they cannot prevent global climatic changes from entering their boundaries.
Future marine conservation may therefore require climate-ready protected areas, mobile or adaptive management strategies, protection of marine climate refugia, and conservation planning that considers movement in latitude, longitude, and ocean depth.
Freshwater Biodiversity and Wetlands
Freshwater ecosystems are among the systems examined extensively in future biodiversity scenarios.
Rivers, lakes, streams, and wetlands face interacting pressures from climate change, pollution, nutrient runoff, dams, water extraction, agriculture, invasive species, and habitat alteration.
Future scenarios show that freshwater biodiversity outcomes can vary greatly depending on pollution control, agricultural practices, habitat restoration, water management, and climate policy.
Wetlands may expand, contract, or move as precipitation, temperature, river flows, and sea levels change.
Coastal wetlands may survive sea-level rise where sediment accumulation and inland migration remain possible. Where development prevents wetlands from migrating inland, losses can be much greater.
Freshwater recovery therefore requires more than species protection. Watersheds, water quality, river connectivity, surrounding land use, and hydrological processes must also be considered.
Agriculture, Food Systems and Land Use
Land use is one of the strongest determinants of future terrestrial biodiversity.
Agriculture occupies large areas of the planet and is a major driver of habitat conversion. Growing populations and changing diets could increase pressure for additional cropland and pasture unless food systems become more efficient.
Future biodiversity scenarios frequently examine combinations of:
- agricultural productivity;
- crop and livestock practices;
- food consumption;
- dietary change;
- food waste;
- habitat protection;
- restoration; and
- international trade.
Changes in diets and reductions in food waste can reduce the amount of land needed for agriculture, potentially allowing more land to remain as natural habitat or become available for ecological restoration.
Future agriculture can therefore either intensify biodiversity pressure or become part of a nature-positive transition.
Restoration and Rewilding
Restoration plays a major role in scenarios attempting to reverse biodiversity decline.
Degraded forests, wetlands, grasslands, rivers, coastal habitats, and other ecosystems can potentially recover ecological functions through restoration.
However, restoration is not instantaneous and does not automatically recreate the biodiversity of an intact ecosystem.
Some ecosystems require decades or centuries to recover important ecological characteristics. Restoration success can also be constrained by climate change, invasive species, fragmented landscapes, altered hydrology, and the disappearance of species needed to rebuild ecological communities.
Future restoration strategies therefore increasingly emphasize biodiversity and ecological resilience rather than measuring success only through tree planting, carbon storage, or land area restored.
Renewable Energy and Biodiversity Trade-Offs
Climate mitigation is essential for long-term biodiversity protection, but some climate solutions can create new ecological pressures.
Large renewable-energy developments require land, infrastructure, transmission corridors, and raw materials. Bioenergy can compete with food production and natural ecosystems for land. Large-scale afforestation or carbon-removal programs may also alter habitats if poorly designed.
Scenario studies therefore reveal an important principle: climate policy and biodiversity policy should be planned together.
Integrated planning can identify places where renewable energy, agriculture, carbon storage, and biodiversity conservation are most compatible while avoiding areas with particularly high ecological value.
A low-carbon future is not automatically a biodiversity-positive future. The design and location of the transition matter.
Invasive Species, Pollution and Emerging Threats
Biological invasions are expected to remain an important biodiversity threat during the twenty-first century.
Increasing trade, transportation, land-use change, and climate change can create new opportunities for species to establish outside their historical ranges.
Future scenarios indicate that alien species may continue accumulating unless prevention, monitoring, trade management, biosecurity, and rapid response improve substantially.
Pollution also shapes biodiversity futures. Nitrogen deposition, nutrient runoff, pesticides, plastics, and other pollutants can alter ecosystems even where natural habitat remains physically intact.
Horizon-scanning research expands this perspective by identifying emerging technologies, industries, environmental changes, and social trends that may become important conservation issues before their full impacts are known.
Genetic Diversity and Adaptation
Future biodiversity cannot be understood only by counting species.
Genetic diversity within species helps populations respond to changing environments, diseases, extreme events, and other pressures.
Populations with greater genetic variation may have more opportunities to adapt or shift their ranges as environmental conditions change. Small and isolated populations may lose this variation, reducing their long-term resilience.
Scenario research increasingly argues that genetic diversity should therefore be incorporated into biodiversity projections, protected-area planning, restoration, and international conservation targets.
Protecting species while allowing their genetic diversity to erode may preserve them temporarily while weakening their ability to survive future environmental change.
Economics, Finance and Nature
Biodiversity scenarios increasingly incorporate economics.
Ecosystem degradation can reduce services provided by forests, wetlands, soils, oceans, pollinators, and other natural systems. These losses can affect agriculture, water supplies, infrastructure, health, fisheries, disaster protection, and economic productivity.
Future economic scenarios therefore examine both the costs of biodiversity decline and the investments required for conservation and restoration.
Finance can push biodiversity in either direction. Investment in infrastructure, agriculture, mining, energy, and development can increase ecological pressure, while conservation finance, restoration investment, sustainable supply chains, and nature-positive economic policies can support recovery.
The challenge is not simply finding additional conservation funding but redirecting larger economic systems so that they stop financing biodiversity destruction.
Justice, Governance and Different Values of Nature
Future biodiversity policy also raises questions of justice.
Conservation strategies affect people differently. Protected areas, restoration projects, agricultural policies, carbon programs, and land-use restrictions can create benefits but can also impose costs on local communities.
Scenarios increasingly consider land rights, Indigenous stewardship, equity, governance, livelihoods, and different cultural understandings of nature.
A conservation strategy that protects biodiversity while displacing communities or concentrating costs on vulnerable populations may be environmentally successful according to one indicator while socially unsustainable.
Nature-positive scenarios therefore increasingly combine ecological objectives with justice and human well-being.
This broader approach also recognizes that people value nature in different ways. Nature may be valued for biodiversity itself, for ecosystem services, for cultural identity, for livelihoods, or because humans understand themselves as participants within ecological systems.
Global Biodiversity Goals for 2030 and 2050
International biodiversity policy increasingly focuses on two major time horizons.
The first is 2030, when governments are expected to make substantial progress under the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, including expanded conservation, restoration, reduced extinction risks, sustainable resource use, and reforms to environmentally harmful incentives.
The second is the broader 2050 vision of living in harmony with nature.
Scenario research helps evaluate whether present policies are consistent with those goals.
The results represented in the source collection suggest that incremental improvements are unlikely to be enough if the major underlying drivers of biodiversity loss continue.
Achieving long-term biodiversity goals may require coordinated changes across conservation, agriculture, food systems, climate policy, energy, finance, infrastructure, trade, consumption, and governance.
Uncertainty and the Limits of Biodiversity Scenarios
Biodiversity scenarios contain substantial uncertainty.
Different models may produce different results even when using similar climate or land-use assumptions. Researchers must make assumptions about future economies, technologies, policies, population growth, consumption, species responses, migration, ecological interactions, and human behavior.
Local conditions such as microclimates can also produce outcomes that global models may overlook.
Future geopolitical events may alter energy systems, agriculture, trade, or international cooperation in ways that established scenarios do not anticipate.
For these reasons, ensembles of models and multiple scenarios are generally more useful than relying on a single projection.
The purpose of scenario analysis is not to identify one guaranteed future. It is to reveal the range of plausible outcomes and identify decisions that remain beneficial across many possible futures.
From Conservation to Transformative Change
Perhaps the most important shift in biodiversity futures research is the growing recognition that conservation cannot operate separately from the rest of society.
Biodiversity is influenced by food production, energy systems, cities, transportation, trade, finance, climate policy, water management, consumption, technology, and governance.
As a result, the most ambitious scenarios describe transformative change rather than simply larger conservation programs.
Such transformation may involve producing food with less land, restoring ecosystems, protecting climate refugia, redesigning infrastructure, reducing waste, changing consumption, improving environmental governance, redirecting financial flows, protecting genetic diversity, and integrating biodiversity into economic decisions.
The question is increasingly not whether humanity can predict the future of biodiversity precisely, but whether societies can deliberately create conditions in which biodiversity can recover.
Conclusion
Future scenarios for global biodiversity range from continued ecological decline to substantial recovery. The difference between these outcomes depends heavily on decisions made during the coming decades.
Climate change, habitat loss, agriculture, pollution, invasive species, urbanization, and resource consumption can continue increasing pressure on ecosystems. At the same time, conservation, restoration, sustainable food systems, climate mitigation, better land-use planning, ecological connectivity, genetic conservation, responsible finance, and improved governance can reduce those pressures.
The source material suggests that isolated conservation measures are unlikely to reverse biodiversity loss on their own. The most promising futures combine direct protection of nature with transformations in the economic and social systems that determine how land, water, energy, food, and other resources are used.
Scenario models cannot tell humanity exactly what the world will look like in 2050 or 2100. They can, however, demonstrate that dramatically different biodiversity futures remain possible.
The future of biodiversity is therefore not simply an ecological forecast. It is a set of choices about what kinds of landscapes, economies, food systems, energy systems, communities, and relationships with nature societies choose to build.
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Future Scenarios for Global Biodiversity — Categorized, Deduplicated, Reverse-Sorted Source Collection
Global Biodiversity Scenarios, Assessments and Policy
1. Nature Positive: Halting and Reversing Biodiversity Loss Toward Restoring Earth System Stability
| Various authors | Frontiers in Science | 2026
Explores what a genuinely nature-positive global trajectory would require and links biodiversity recovery to maintenance of wider Earth-system stability and human well-being.
2. GLOBIOweb — Global Biodiversity Future Scenarios
| PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency | GLOBIO | 2026
Provides interactive global maps of biodiversity intactness and major pressures under alternative 2050 socioeconomic and climate scenarios.
3. A Prioritization Strategy for Protecting Conservation Imperatives Sites
| Joe Gosling et al. | Frontiers in Conservation Science | 2026
Identifies unprotected sites containing rare and threatened species and incorporates projected habitat-conversion pressure to prioritize areas where conservation action could prevent future extinctions.
4. Bending the Curve of Biodiversity Loss Requires a 'Satnav' for Nature
| Andy Purvis | Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B | January 9, 2025
Discusses the indicators and models needed to determine whether humanity is actually moving toward biodiversity recovery and how progress toward future targets can be measured.
5. Exploring Pathways for World Development Within Planetary Boundaries
| Detlef van Vuuren et al. | Nature | 2025
Uses integrated global modeling to examine alternative development pathways through 2050 and shows how climate, food-system, water, and nutrient policies could reduce pressure on biodiversity and other planetary boundaries.
6. Future Scenarios 2050: Developing Future Scenarios to Explore Potential Socio-Economic Developments and Their Impact on Biodiversity
| Jennifer L. Bufford et al. | PLOS ONE | December 12, 2024
Develops contrasting socioeconomic futures for 2050 and examines how scenario planning can help anticipate indirect drivers of biodiversity change that conventional ecological projections may overlook.
7. UN Common Approach to Biodiversity
| United Nations Environment Programme | UNEP | 2024
Describes a UN-wide strategy for aligning programs with the 2050 biodiversity vision and mainstreaming biodiversity across development sectors.
8. IPBES Transformative Change Assessment
| IPBES | Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services | 2024
Assesses the fundamental technological, economic, social, behavioral, and institutional transformations needed to halt biodiversity loss and move toward sustainable and just futures.
9. IPBES Nexus Assessment — Chapter 3: Future Interactions Across the Nexus
| Harmáčková et al. | IPBES | 2024
Focuses specifically on future scenarios and explores how alternative development trajectories could affect biodiversity, water, food, human health, and climate simultaneously.
10. IPBES Nexus Assessment
| IPBES | Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services | 2024
Examines interactions among biodiversity, water, food, health, and climate and evaluates policy options that can produce synergies or avoid unintended tradeoffs across these systems.
11. Achieving Global Biodiversity Goals Makes a Big Difference for Nature and People
| PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency | PBL | 2024
Compares global futures to 2050 and finds substantial differences between business-as-usual trajectories and pathways in which biodiversity goals are fully incorporated into development decisions.
12. The Global Biodiversity Framework and the Sustainable Development Goals
| United Nations Environment Programme | UNEP | 2023
Connects future biodiversity goals with development, food, water, climate, health, and other sustainability objectives.
13. Global Biodiversity Framework Goal B — Prosper With Nature
| United Nations Environment Programme | UNEP | 2023
Describes a 2050 future in which biodiversity is sustainably used and nature's contributions to people are maintained, enhanced, and restored.
14. Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework
| Convention on Biological Diversity | CBD | 2022
Establishes four global goals for 2050 and 23 targets for 2030 intended to shift the world from continued biodiversity decline toward recovery.
15. Challenges in Producing Policy-Relevant Global Scenarios of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services
| Isabel M.D. Rosa et al. | Global Ecology and Conservation | June 2020
Reviews limitations in global biodiversity scenario development and identifies ways to make scenarios more useful to governments, conservation organizations, and international assessments.
16. Bending the Curve of Terrestrial Biodiversity Needs an Integrated Strategy
| David Leclère et al. | Nature | 2020
A landmark global modeling study showing that ambitious conservation can reverse biodiversity decline only when combined with transformations of food production and consumption.
17. Alternative Pathways to a Sustainable Future Lead to Contrasting Biodiversity Responses
| Various authors | Global Ecology and Conservation | 2020
Demonstrates how alternative sustainability pathways can generate very different biodiversity outcomes and illustrates the importance of incorporating ecological consequences into broader development scenarios.
18. Towards the Vision 2050 on Biodiversity: Living in Harmony With Nature
| United Nations Environment Programme | UNEP | July 17, 2019
Discusses development of the post-2020 biodiversity framework and the transformative changes considered necessary to achieve the international 2050 vision.
19. IPBES Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services
Provides the major global assessment of biodiversity status, direct and indirect drivers, future scenarios, and transformative changes needed to achieve international sustainability goals.
20. Aiming Higher to Bend the Curve of Biodiversity Loss
| Georgina M. Mace et al. | Nature Sustainability | September 14, 2018
Proposes a long-term global biodiversity goal and measurable milestones designed to move conservation policy from simply slowing decline toward actual ecological recovery by 2050.
21. Scenarios for the 2050 Vision for Biodiversity — CBD Decision 14/2
| Convention on Biological Diversity | CBD | 2018
Establishes the international policy basis for using alternative scenarios to examine how humanity might achieve the 2050 vision of living in harmony with nature.
22. Scenarios for the 2050 Vision for Biodiversity
| Convention on Biological Diversity | CBD | September 15, 2017
Summarizes global biodiversity projections and examines pathways capable of moving development away from business-as-usual trends toward the CBD's 2050 biodiversity vision.
23. The Future Value of Ecosystem Services: Global Scenarios and National Implications
| Ida Kubiszewski et al. | Ecosystem Services | August 2017
Estimates ecosystem-service values through 2050 under Market Forces, Fortress World, Policy Reform, and Great Transition futures.
24. Scenarios for the 2050 Vision for Biodiversity — SBSTTA Recommendation XXI/1
| Convention on Biological Diversity | CBD | 2017
Reviews scenario evidence available to governments and recommends using long-term biodiversity projections when developing post-2020 global conservation strategies.
25. Review of Future Projections of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services
Reviews scientific projections of future biodiversity and ecosystem services and considers how scenario evidence can inform efforts to achieve the 2050 biodiversity vision.
26. Projecting Global Biodiversity Indicators Under Future Development Scenarios
| Piero Visconti et al. | Conservation Letters | 2016
Projects internationally relevant biodiversity indicators under alternative socioeconomic scenarios, helping connect global biodiversity modeling directly with conservation targets.
27. Progress Towards the Aichi Biodiversity Targets: An Assessment of Biodiversity Trends, Policy Scenarios and Key Actions
| Convention on Biological Diversity | CBD Technical Series 78 | 2014
Models biodiversity trends and policy scenarios and evaluates which combinations of actions could improve prospects for meeting international biodiversity targets.
28. Global Biodiversity Outlook 4
| Convention on Biological Diversity | CBD | 2014
Assesses progress toward the Aichi Biodiversity Targets and uses scenarios to evaluate what additional actions would be required to place global biodiversity on a more sustainable trajectory.
29. Roads From Rio+20: Pathways to Achieve Global Sustainability Goals by 2050
| PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency | PBL | 2012
Explores alternative global development pathways to 2050 and evaluates combinations of policies for biodiversity, climate, food, energy, and other sustainability objectives.
30. Beyond Predictions: Biodiversity Conservation in a Changing Climate
| Terence P. Dawson et al. | Science | April 1, 2011
Reviews methods for anticipating future biodiversity impacts and argues for integrating modeling, experiments, observations, paleoecology, and evolutionary responses into conservation planning.
31. Global Biodiversity Outlook 3
| Convention on Biological Diversity | CBD | 2010
Uses available biodiversity trends and scenarios to warn of ecological tipping points while examining policy changes capable of reducing future biodiversity loss.
32. Projected Climate-Induced Faunal Change in the Western Hemisphere
| Joshua J. Lawler et al. | Ecology / U.S. Geological Survey | 2009
Uses 30 climate simulations and nearly 3,000 vertebrate species to identify regions of North and South America likely to experience especially large future faunal turnover.
33. A Review of Climate-Change Adaptation Strategies for Wildlife Management and Biodiversity Conservation
| Jonathan R. Mawdsley, Robin O'Malley and Dennis S. Ojima | Conservation Biology | 2009
Organizes conservation adaptation options into habitat management, species management, monitoring and planning, and law and policy.
34. Crossroads of Life on Earth — Exploring Means to Meet Global Biodiversity Targets
| UNEP and PBL | United Nations Environment Programme | January 28, 2007
Uses quantitative models to compare policy options affecting biodiversity through 2050 and represents an early global attempt to identify pathways capable of slowing nature loss.
35. Changes in Nature's Balance Sheet: Model-Based Estimates of Future Worldwide Ecosystem Services
| Joseph Alcamo et al. | Millennium Ecosystem Assessment research | 2005
Quantifies ecosystem-service changes under four global scenarios extending to 2050 and, for some variables, 2100.
Scenario Methods, Models, Indicators and Foresight
36. Operationalizing the Nature Futures Framework to catalyze the development of nature-future scenarios
| Shizuka Hashimoto et al. | Sustainability Science | September 2026
Examines how the Nature Futures Framework can move from a conceptual model to practical scenario-building, allowing researchers and decision-makers to explore multiple desirable relationships between people and nature.
37. A 2026 Horizon Scan for Biodiversity Conservation in South Africa
| Colleen L. Seymour et al. | Ambio | March 13, 2026
Provides a regional example of systematic foresight, identifying emerging issues that could influence future biodiversity and demonstrating methods that can be adapted to global scenario planning.
38. A Horizon Scan of Biological Conservation Issues for 2026
| William J. Sutherland et al. | Trends in Ecology & Evolution | January 2026
Identifies emerging technologies, environmental pressures, social changes, and policy developments that could become important for biodiversity conservation in coming years.
39. Mean Species Abundance — Global 2050 Projections
| SpatiaFi | SpatiaFi Data Catalog | 2026
Provides global Mean Species Abundance projections for 2050 under sustainability, regional rivalry, and fossil-fuelled development scenarios.
40. BES-SIM Publications, Repositories and Datasets
| BES-SIM Consortium | BES-SIM | 2026
Collects global biodiversity and ecosystem-service scenario datasets and modeling resources used to compare future trajectories across different ecological models.
41. BES-SIM 2 Framework
| Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services Scenario Model Intercomparison | BES-SIM | 2026
Describes the next generation of biodiversity scenario model comparisons using multiple models and the Nature Futures Framework to explore positive biodiversity futures.
42. A Horizon Scan of Biological Conservation Issues for 2025
| William J. Sutherland et al. | Trends in Ecology & Evolution | January 2025
Identifies emerging environmental, technological, economic, and social developments that could become major opportunities or threats for biodiversity conservation.
43. Methodological Guidance for Using the Nature Futures Framework
| IPBES Nature Futures Framework | Nature Futures Framework | 2025
Provides practical guidance for constructing qualitative and quantitative scenarios representing diverse desirable relationships between people and nature and pathways toward the 2050 Vision for Biodiversity.
44. Catalyzing Change: A Literature Review on the Implementation of the Nature Futures Framework
| Various authors | Sustainability Science | 2025
Reviews applications of the Nature Futures Framework and assesses progress toward creating scenarios that represent diverse values, worldviews, and desirable relationships between humans and nature.
45. A Horizon Scan of Global Biological Conservation Issues for 2024
| William J. Sutherland et al. | Trends in Ecology & Evolution | January 2024
Highlights emerging issues that may shape future conservation, offering a systematic way to look beyond established threats and anticipate new challenges before they become widespread.
46. Envisioning Nature Positive Futures for Europe: Inspiring Transformative Change at the Biodiversity Nexus
| Anita Lazurko et al. | EarthArXiv | 2024
Uses the Nature Futures Framework to envision positive biodiversity futures and transformations involving food, water, energy, health, and climate systems.
47. BES-SIM 2: Nature Futures Scenarios for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services
| BES-SIM researchers | AGU Annual Meeting | 2024
Describes the next generation of global biodiversity model intercomparisons using Nature Futures scenarios intended to broaden the range of futures represented in biodiversity projections.
48. Towards a Better Future for Biodiversity and People: Modelling Nature Futures
| Hyejin Kim et al. | Global Environmental Change | September 2023
Demonstrates how the Nature Futures Framework can be translated into quantitative models, opening the way for biodiversity scenarios centered on different positive relationships between nature and society.
49. A Global Biological Conservation Horizon Scan of Issues for 2023
| William J. Sutherland et al. | Trends in Ecology & Evolution | January 2023
Identifies emerging issues likely to affect conservation and biodiversity in coming years, including technological innovations, environmental change, resource use, and novel ecological pressures.
50. Managing Biodiversity in the Anthropocene: Discussing the Nature Futures Framework as a Tool for Adaptive Decision-Making for Nature Under Climate Change
| Juliano Palacios-Abrantes et al. | Sustainability Science | September 21, 2022
Explores how the Nature Futures Framework can help decision-makers consider multiple desirable futures and adapt conservation strategies as climatic and ecological conditions change.
51. A Horizon Scan of Global Biological Conservation Issues for 2022
| William J. Sutherland et al. | Trends in Ecology & Evolution | January 2022
Surveys emerging threats and opportunities that could influence future conservation, illustrating how horizon scanning complements longer-term biodiversity scenarios.
52. IPBES Methodological Assessment Regarding the Diverse Conceptualization of Multiple Values of Nature and Its Benefits
Shows how different cultural, economic, ecological, and intrinsic values of nature can influence decisions and future pathways, providing an important foundation for pluralistic biodiversity scenarios.
53. Biodiversity Intactness Index — Global Projections to 2050 Under Multiple Scenarios
| Natural History Museum | NHM Data Portal | 2021
Provides country, regional, and global Biodiversity Intactness Index projections from 1970 to 2050 under multiple Shared Socioeconomic Pathways.
54. Current Global Development Scenarios Appear to Fall Short in Halting Biodiversity Loss
| PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency | PBL | November 4, 2019
Reports GLOBIO scenario results indicating that biodiversity decline can continue even in relatively sustainable global development pathways without stronger interventions.
55. Uncertainty in Ensembles of Global Biodiversity Scenarios
| Wilfried Thuiller et al. | Nature Communications | March 29, 2019
Quantifies uncertainty across biodiversity models and demonstrates why projections should use multiple models rather than presenting a single future trajectory as certain.
56. Synthesizing Plausible Futures for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services Using Scenario Archetypes
| Paula A. Harrison et al. | Ecology and Society | 2019
Organizes biodiversity futures into recurring scenario archetypes such as business-as-usual, regional competition, inequality, and sustainable development.
57. Methodological Assessment Report on Scenarios and Models of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services
Establishes guidance for using scenarios and models in biodiversity assessment and decision-making and provides much of the methodological foundation for later IPBES scenario work.
Climate Change, Range Shifts and Extinction Risk
58. Spatially Explicit Forecasts of Tree Insect and Disease Incidence Across North American Forests Under Future Climate Scenarios
| Zihui Wang et al. | Nature Ecology & Evolution | September 2, 2026
Projects how warming and drought could alter insect and pathogen pressures on forests, with potentially important consequences for forest biodiversity and carbon storage.
59. Temperate Local Extinctions From Climate Change Are Outpacing Tropical Extinctions
| Gopal Murali et al. | Nature Climate Change | June 18, 2026
Uses observed ecological responses to climate change to improve understanding of future extinction risk and challenges assumptions that climate-driven losses will necessarily be concentrated in tropical ecosystems.
60. Warming Erodes Climate Connectivity for Terrestrial Vertebrates
| Zhaoning Wu et al. | Nature Climate Change | May 18, 2026
Develops a global measure of climate connectivity and projects how warming could reduce the ability of terrestrial vertebrates to move among suitable habitats.
61. Wildfire Risk for Species Under Climate Change
| Xiaoye Yang et al. | Nature Climate Change | April 6, 2026
Assesses how changing wildfire regimes may expose species to new risks as the climate warms, providing a forward-looking picture of where fire could become an increasingly important biodiversity threat.
62. A Global Early Warning System for Predicting Exposure of Biodiversity to Extreme Heat
| Various authors | Nature Climate Change | 2026
Develops a framework for anticipating where extreme-temperature events could expose species and ecosystems to unprecedented heat, potentially giving conservation planners advance warning of emerging biodiversity risks.
63. Potential 2050 Distributions of World Terrestrial Ecosystems From Projections of Changes in World Climate Regions and Global Land Cover
| Various authors | Global Ecology and Conservation | January 2025
Projects shifts in terrestrial ecosystems to 2050 by combining future climate regions and land-cover change, helping identify areas where present ecosystems may undergo substantial transformation.
64. Global Bias Towards Recording Latitudinal Range Shifts
| Various authors | Nature Climate Change | 2025
Shows that the scientific record of species redistribution may contain geographic sampling biases that need to be considered when forecasting future biodiversity change.
65. Climate Change Is Projected to Shrink Phylogenetic Endemism of Neotropical Frogs
| Various authors | Nature Communications | 2025
Projects changes not only in frog species richness but also in evolutionary diversity, identifying future conservation priorities for unique branches of the amphibian tree of life.
66. Heat and Desiccation Tolerances Predict Bee Abundance Under Climate Change
| Melanie R. Kazenel et al. | Nature | March 27, 2024
Links bee physiological tolerance with long-term population trends and uses those relationships to anticipate future pollinator communities under hotter and drier conditions.
67. Mechanisms, Detection and Impacts of Species Redistributions Under Climate Change
| Jake A. Lawlor et al. | Nature Reviews Earth & Environment | 2024
Reviews why species shift their distributions at different rates and directions and considers the consequences of future redistribution for ecosystems and human societies.
68. Global Exposure Risk of Frogs to Increasing Environmental Dryness
| Various authors | Nature Climate Change | 2024
Projects future drought exposure for amphibians and shows that warming combined with drying can substantially increase physiological and behavioral stress.
69. The Role of High-Biodiversity Regions in Preserving Nature's Contributions to People
| Marta Cimatti et al. | Nature Sustainability | July 13, 2023
Examines how regions rich in biodiversity contribute to ecosystem services under four future climate scenarios.
70. Macroclimate Data Overestimate Range Shifts of Plants in Response to Climate Change
| Ilya M. D. Maclean and Regan Early | Nature Climate Change | April 24, 2023
Shows that forecasts based only on broad-scale climate data may exaggerate some future plant range shifts because organisms experience local microclimates.
71. Potential Effects of Future Climate Change on Global Reptile Distributions and Diversity
| Matthias F. Biber | Global Ecology and Biogeography | February 21, 2023
Models more than 6,000 reptile species under alternative climate futures to estimate changes in richness, range size, and geographic distribution.
72. Climate-Mediated Shifts in Temperature Fluctuations Promote Extinction Risk
| Kate Duffy et al. | Nature Climate Change | October 20, 2022
Shows that biodiversity risks depend not only on increases in average temperatures but also on changes in temperature variability, an important consideration for future climate-impact scenarios.
73. Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability — Summary for Policymakers
| IPCC | Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change | 2022
Synthesizes projected risks to ecosystems and biodiversity at different warming levels and shows how risks escalate as warming increases while adaptation options become more constrained.
74. The Projected Timing of Abrupt Ecological Disruption From Climate Change
| Christopher H. Trisos et al. | Nature | April 8, 2020
Projects when species within ecological communities may begin experiencing unprecedented temperatures, suggesting that climate-driven ecological disruption can occur abruptly rather than gradually.
75. Future Climate Change Vulnerability of Endemic Island Mammals
| Camille Leclerc, Franck Courchamp and Céline Bellard | Nature Communications | 2020
Assesses exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of island mammals under future climate scenarios and identifies especially vulnerable island biodiversity.
76. Incorporating Future Climate Uncertainty Into the Identification of Climate Change Refugia for Threatened Species
| Various authors | Biological Conservation | 2019
Compares multiple climate futures to distinguish robust in-situ and ex-situ refugia for hundreds of threatened species.
77. The Projected Effect on Insects, Vertebrates, and Plants of Limiting Global Warming to 1.5°C Rather Than 2°C
| Rachel Warren et al. | Science | May 18, 2018
Compares alternative warming levels and shows that limiting warming to 1.5°C substantially reduces projected geographic range losses across thousands of species.
78. Global Warming of 1.5°C — Summary for Policymakers
| IPCC | Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change | 2018
Compares ecological risks associated with 1.5°C and 2°C warming, showing that relatively small differences in global temperature can produce substantial differences in future biodiversity impacts.
79. Climate-Related Local Extinctions Are Already Widespread Among Plant and Animal Species
| John J. Wiens | PLOS Biology | December 8, 2016
Uses observed climate-related population losses to assess processes likely to become increasingly important as warming intensifies during the coming century.
80. The Broad Footprint of Climate Change From Genes to Biomes to People
| Brett R. Scheffers et al. | Science | 2016
Synthesizes climate responses across levels of biological organization and shows that climate-driven changes are already occurring throughout Earth's ecosystems.
81. Accelerating Extinction Risk From Climate Change
| Mark C. Urban | Science | 2015
Synthesizes climate-extinction studies and finds that projected extinction risk rises strongly as global temperatures increase.
82. Life History and Spatial Traits Predict Extinction Risk Due to Climate Change
| Richard G. Pearson et al. | Nature Climate Change | 2014
Shows that present-day demographic and geographic characteristics can help identify species most likely to face climate-driven extinction by 2100.
83. Impacts of Climate Change on the Future of Biodiversity
| Céline Bellard et al. | Ecology Letters | 2012
Reviews projected climate impacts from genes and populations through species, communities, ecosystems, and biomes and discusses the mechanisms through which future biodiversity loss may occur.
84. Rapid Range Shifts of Species Associated With High Levels of Climate Warming
| I-Ching Chen et al. | Science | August 19, 2011
Synthesizes observed elevational and latitudinal range shifts, providing empirical evidence for the movements expected to reshape future biodiversity.
85. Climate Change Threatens European Conservation Areas
| Miguel B. Araújo et al. | Ecology Letters | 2011
Projects climatic suitability for European plants and vertebrates and finds that many species may lose suitable conditions within existing reserves during the twenty-first century.
86. The Velocity of Climate Change
| Scott R. Loarie et al. | Nature | December 24, 2009
Introduces climate velocity as a measure of how quickly species may need to move geographically to remain within familiar temperature conditions.
87. Biodiversity Management in the Face of Climate Change: A Review of 22 Years of Recommendations
| Nicole E. Heller and Erika S. Zavaleta | Biological Conservation | 2009
Reviews decades of recommendations for adapting biodiversity conservation to climate change and identifies recurring strategies such as connectivity, refugia, flexible reserves, and threat reduction.
88. Projected Distributions of Novel and Disappearing Climates by 2100 AD
| John W. Williams, Stephen T. Jackson and John E. Kutzbach | PNAS | 2007
Maps regions expected to develop unprecedented climates or lose existing climatic conditions, with major implications for biodiversity hotspots and conservation strategies.
89. Global Warming and Extinctions of Endemic Species From Biodiversity Hotspots
| Jay R. Malcolm et al. | Conservation Biology | 2006
Uses future biome projections to estimate climate-driven habitat losses and extinction risks for endemic species in global biodiversity hotspots.
90. Climate Change Threats to Plant Diversity in Europe
| Wilfried Thuiller et al. | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences | 2005
Models future ranges of European plants and identifies large potential shifts, contractions, and regional differences in climate vulnerability.
91. Extinction Risk From Climate Change
| Chris D. Thomas et al. | Nature | January 2004
One of the foundational studies estimating potential species extinctions under future climate scenarios and an important reference point for the subsequent development of climate-biodiversity projections.
92. Fingerprints of Global Warming on Wild Animals and Plants
| Terry L. Root et al. | Nature | January 2, 2003
Synthesizes biological responses to warming and documents widespread shifts in species timing and distributions consistent with climate change.
93. A Globally Coherent Fingerprint of Climate Change Impacts Across Natural Systems
| Camille Parmesan and Gary Yohe | Nature | January 2, 2003
Demonstrates consistent climate-related changes across more than 1,700 species and provides a foundation for later biodiversity forecasting.
Protected Areas, Connectivity and Climate Refugia
94. Integrating Key Biodiversity Areas Into the Global Conservation Network to Advance Area-Based Conservation Targets
| Various authors | Biological Conservation | October 2026
Combines climate risk, human pressure, extinction risk, carbon, and protection gaps to identify Key Biodiversity Areas that could contribute strongly to future conservation expansion.
95. Balancing Climate and Biodiversity: Assessing the Socioeconomic Impacts of the 30-by-30 Target With Climate Warming Constraints
| Kevin Lin Yang et al. | Land Use Policy | September 2026
Models interactions between climate policy and global 30×30 conservation, including effects on agricultural land, trade, food prices, and regional economies.
96. People and Nature in UNESCO-Designated Sites: Global and Local Contributions
| UNESCO | UNESCO | April 8, 2026
Examines more than 2,000 designated sites and considers their resilience to future biodiversity and climate pressures, including the risk of approaching ecological tipping points.
97. Synergies and Trade-Offs for Reaching Global Biodiversity and Climate Commitments
| Various authors | Nature Communications | 2026
Compares 30×30 and 50×50 conservation strategies under current and future climates while considering species richness, carbon storage, connectivity, cost, and equity.
98. Projected Human Land-Use Pressures and Natural Habitat Conversion Risk Within Global Terrestrial Protected Areas
| Various authors | Nature Ecology & Evolution | 2026
Projects future land-use pressure within and around protected areas, showing that formal protection does not necessarily eliminate threats from agricultural expansion and other human activities.
99. Developing a Pilot Ecological Indicator Framework for Detecting Climate Refugia, Instability, and Extinction Debt Using Orchids
| Various authors | iScience | 2026
Integrates habitat stability, climate refugia, ecological sensitivity, and extinction debt into a forward-looking framework for conservation planning.
100. Cost-Effective Protected Lands Based on Climate Refugia for Terrestrial Vertebrates in China
| Various authors | Biological Conservation | 2026
Develops alternative 30×30 conservation networks centered on areas expected to remain suitable for terrestrial vertebrates under future climate scenarios.
101. Climate-Smart Protected Areas in Drylands Can Effectively Safeguard Biodiversity Without Expanding Boundaries
| Various authors | Land Use Policy | November 2025
Combines climate, species-distribution, ecosystem-service, and conservation models to identify future refugia and improve dryland protected-area design.
102. Free Organisms for Bending the Curve of Biodiversity Loss
| Geert de Snoo and Kees Musters | Biological Conservation | June 2025
Argues that biodiversity recovery requires greater attention to wild organisms outside strictly protected areas and considers how landscapes used by people could contribute to bending the biodiversity-loss curve.
103. Ski Resorts Threaten Climate Refugia for High-Elevation Biodiversity Under Current and Future Conditions in the Alps
| Various authors | Biological Conservation | 2025
Projects upward movement of skiing development and shows how future expansion could increasingly overlap high-elevation biodiversity refugia.
104. Projected Climate Zone Shifts Could Undermine the Effectiveness of Global Protected Areas for Biodiversity Conservation by Mid-to-Late Century
| Various authors | Global Environmental Change Advances | 2025
Projects climate-zone displacement across thousands of protected areas and identifies locations where existing reserves may no longer contain today's climatic conditions.
105. Projected Climate Zone Shifts and the Future Effectiveness of Protected Areas
| Various authors | Global Environmental Change Advances | 2025
Quantifies the speed at which climatic zones could move through the world's protected-area network and identifies protected lands vulnerable to novel or disappearing climates.
106. Positive Contributions of China's Protected Areas in Biodiversity Conservation and Carbon Storage Under Future Climate Change
| Various authors | Science of the Total Environment | 2025
Tests whether protected areas can continue conserving multiple taxonomic groups and carbon stocks under projected mid-century climate change.
107. Optimizing Global Protected Areas to Address Future Land Use Threats to Biodiversity
| Various authors | Land Use Policy | 2025
Models future land-use pressure on protected areas and compares expanding coverage with improving management and spatial configuration as strategies for reducing biodiversity losses.
108. Integrating Biological Mechanisms and Identifying Key Climate Refugia to Enhance Biodiversity Climate Change Adaptation
| Various authors | Journal of Environmental Management | 2025
Demonstrates how dispersal, local adaptation, species interactions, and environmental variation can improve forecasts of future habitat and refugia.
109. How Biodiversity Conservation Adapts to Climate Change: From a Cross-Spatial Scale Framework
| Xu Mengzhi et al. | Frontiers in Climate | 2025
Reviews climate-adaptive conservation strategies from regional to landscape and species scales, including corridors, refugia, protected-area redesign, monitoring, and assisted conservation.
110. Current Approaches and Future Opportunities for Climate-Smart Protected Areas
| Various authors | Nature Reviews Biodiversity | 2025
Reviews approaches for designing protected areas around future habitats, climate refugia, ecological connectivity, and evolutionary adaptation potential.
111. The Socioeconomic and Environmental Niche of Protected Areas Reveals Global Conservation Gaps and Opportunities
| Various authors | Nature Communications | 2024
Examines where future protected-area expansion is socially and environmentally feasible and identifies biodiversity-rich regions where alternative conservation approaches may be required.
112. Natural World Heritage Sites Are at Risk From Climate Change Globally
| Various authors | Communications Earth & Environment | 2024
Projects exposure of 250 natural World Heritage sites to future climate extremes and identifies locations facing particularly severe late-century risks.
113. Mixed Effectiveness of Global Protected Areas in Resisting Habitat Loss
| Various authors | Nature Communications | 2024
Assesses habitat conversion across more than 160,000 protected areas and provides evidence relevant to designing more effective future conservation networks.
114. Connectivity Conservation to Mitigate Climate and Land-Cover Change Impacts on Borneo
| Various authors | Biological Conservation | 2024
Models present and future connections among protected areas for 81 species and identifies corridors capable of reducing combined climate and habitat-loss pressures.
115. Connecting Nature in a Fragmented World: The Importance of Conserving Ecological Connectivity in the Next Decade
| UNEP-WCMC | UNEP World Conservation Monitoring Centre | 2024
Examines how habitat fragmentation and climate-driven range shifts increase the importance of corridors and connected conservation networks under the Global Biodiversity Framework.
116. Climate Refugia for Atlantic Forest Widespread Endemic Anurans Will Persist in Future Climate Change Scenarios
| Various authors | Journal for Nature Conservation | 2024
Models future habitat for endemic amphibians and identifies Atlantic Forest regions likely to retain suitable climatic conditions.
117. Protected Areas Slow Declines Unevenly Across the Tetrapod Tree of Life
| Various authors | Nature | 2023
Finds that vertebrate populations generally decline more slowly inside protected areas but that climate change and surrounding land conversion can reduce conservation effectiveness.
118. Global Protected Areas as Refuges for Amphibians and Reptiles Under Climate Change
| Various authors | Nature Communications | 2023
Models more than 14,000 amphibian and reptile species to evaluate whether today's protected areas will continue providing refuges as climates shift.
119. Climate and Land-Use Changes Threaten the Effectiveness of Protected Areas for Protecting Galliformes in Southeast Asia
| Various authors | Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution | 2023
Projects habitat changes for 62 bird species and finds future mismatches between areas of high biodiversity and existing protected areas.
120. 30×30 Biodiversity Gains Rely on National Coordination
| Various authors | Nature Communications | 2023
Compares alternative 30×30 conservation scenarios and shows how spatial coordination and protection of future climate refugia can influence biodiversity outcomes.
121. Climate and Land-Use Changes Reduce the Benefits of Terrestrial Protected Areas
| Ernest F. Asamoah et al. | Nature Climate Change | November 25, 2021
Projects that many protected areas will simultaneously face substantial climate displacement and surrounding land-use change by mid-century.
122. Persistent Quaternary Climate Refugia Are Hospices for Biodiversity in the Anthropocene
| Stuart C. Brown et al. | Nature Climate Change | February 3, 2020
Examines whether regions that historically acted as climate refuges will remain stable enough to protect biodiversity as anthropogenic warming accelerates.
123. Protected Areas as Potential Refugia for Biodiversity Under Climatic Change
| Various authors | Biological Conservation | 2020
Combines climate velocity, topographic diversity, and species priorities to identify protected lands likely to act as climate refugia.
124. Guidelines for Conserving Connectivity Through Ecological Networks and Corridors
| Jodi Hilty et al. | IUCN | 2020
Provides global guidance for maintaining and restoring landscape and seascape connectivity so species and ecological processes can persist as climates and land uses change.
125. Climate Change Exposure and Vulnerability of the Global Protected Area Estate From an International Perspective
| Samuel Hoffmann et al. | Diversity and Distributions | 2020
Assesses future climate exposure across terrestrial protected areas worldwide and compares vulnerability among national conservation systems.
126. Predicted Climate Shifts Within Terrestrial Protected Areas Worldwide
| Samuel Hoffmann et al. | Nature Communications | October 21, 2019
Projects the emergence and disappearance of climatic conditions within more than 137,000 protected areas through the twenty-first century.
127. Global Loss of Climate Connectivity in Tropical Forests
| Rebecca A. Senior et al. | Nature Climate Change | July 8, 2019
Shows how tropical deforestation can prevent species from reaching future suitable climates and identifies restoration of climate corridors as a conservation priority.
128. Connectivity Conservation: A Key Element of the Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework
| Convention on Migratory Species | CMS | 2018
Explains why connected habitats and transboundary ecological corridors are essential for allowing migratory and range-shifting species to respond to future environmental change.
129. Managing for Climate Change on Protected Areas: An Adaptive Management Decision Making Framework
| Various authors | Journal of Environmental Management | 2017
Provides a framework for deciding when managers should resist ecological change, accommodate it, or adjust management goals as protected areas experience new climates.
130. Observed and Predicted Effects of Climate Change on Species Abundance in Protected Areas
| Various authors | Nature Climate Change | 2014
Projects how bird populations within protected areas may change under strong future warming and examines whether reserve networks can remain useful despite species turnover.
131. Global Forecasts of Urban Expansion to 2030 and Direct Impacts on Biodiversity and Carbon Pools
| Karen C. Seto et al. | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences | September 17, 2012
Forecasts global urban expansion to 2030 and identifies biodiversity hotspots, protected areas, and carbon-rich ecosystems likely to face increasing development pressure.
132. Projected Impacts of Climate Change on a Continent-Wide Protected Area Network
| David G. Hole et al. | Ecology Letters | 2009
Projects bird distributions across Africa and finds major future species turnover within Important Bird Areas while showing that a connected reserve network could still retain suitable climates for many species.
133. The Implications of Current and Future Urbanization for Global Protected Areas and Biodiversity Conservation
| Robert I. McDonald et al. | Biological Conservation | 2008
Projects global urban expansion and identifies ecoregions, threatened species, and protected areas expected to face increasing development pressure.
134. Protected Area Needs in a Changing Climate
| Lee Hannah et al. | Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment | 2007
Models future species-range changes in several biodiversity-rich regions and evaluates how protected-area networks may need to expand or shift as climates change.
Marine and Coastal Biodiversity Futures
135. Towards a Global Framework for Climate Vulnerability Assessment in Marine Protected Areas
| UNESCO Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission | UNESCO-IOC | July 8, 2026
Reports development of global tools for evaluating climate vulnerability and improving the future resilience of marine protected areas.
136. Oceanographic Connectivity Strongly Restricts Future Range Expansions of Critical Marine Forest Species
| Jorge Assis et al. | npj Biodiversity | March 27, 2026
Shows that suitable future climate alone may not allow marine forest species to shift ranges because ocean-current connectivity can restrict successful dispersal.
137. Towards Climate-Ready Marine Protected Areas: Challenges and Strategic Pathways
| Gregory Fuchs et al. | npj Ocean Sustainability | February 12, 2026
Outlines ecological, governance, financial, and social changes needed for marine protected areas to remain effective under future ocean conditions.
138. How Different Nations Report Their Contributions to the 30×30 Marine Conservation Target
| Caitlin R. Henneker et al. | npj Ocean Sustainability | February 11, 2026
Examines implementation of the global 30×30 marine target and highlights differences in how countries interpret and report progress toward future ocean conservation.
139. Marine Protected Areas in a Changing Climate
| NOAA National Marine Protected Areas Center | NOAA | 2026
Reviews how future warming, acidification, deoxygenation, sea-level rise, and changing currents affect the long-term effectiveness of marine protected areas.
140. Identifying Marine Climate Refugia to Advance Climate-Smart Conservation
| Various authors | Trends in Ecology & Evolution | 2026
Reviews approaches for identifying marine areas likely to remain comparatively resilient as oceans warm and explains how refugia can be incorporated into future conservation planning.
141. Biodiversity and Climate Resilience for Sustainable Ocean Planning
| UNESCO Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission | UNESCO-IOC | 2026
Describes efforts to integrate future climate vulnerability, biodiversity protection, and equitable governance into marine spatial planning.
142. Future-Proofing the Global System of Marine Protected Areas
| Various authors | Marine Policy | January 2025
Reviews how climate adaptation can be incorporated into marine protected-area planning, governance, monitoring, and management.
143. Identifying Global Marine Climate Refugia Through a Conservative Approach to Ocean Biodiversity Preservation
| Various authors | Nature Communications | 2025
Maps potential marine climate refugia through 2100 and evaluates how well existing marine conservation areas cover these relatively stable ocean regions.
144. Global Marine Conservation Priorities for Sustaining Marine Productivity, Preserving Biodiversity and Addressing Climate Change
| Various authors | Marine Policy | March 2024
Identifies highly productive, relatively low-impact marine regions whose protection could simultaneously support biodiversity, fisheries, and climate objectives.
145. Temporal Dynamics of Climate Change Exposure and Opportunities for Global Marine Biodiversity
| Various authors | Nature Communications | 2024
Projects how marine species will encounter changing climate conditions through time and identifies locations where conservation could potentially provide refuges or adaptation opportunities.
146. Climate-Driven Global Redistribution of an Ocean Giant Predicts Increased Threat From Shipping
| Various authors | Nature Climate Change | 2024
Projects whale-shark habitat shifts through 2100 and finds that climate-driven redistribution could increasingly bring these animals into heavily trafficked shipping areas.
147. Global Redistribution of Marine Life Under Future Climate Change
| Various authors | Global Change Biology | 2023
Projects habitat suitability for more than 33,000 marine species to 2100 and finds increasingly substantial redistribution and habitat contraction under higher emissions.
148. Climate-Driven Zooplankton Shifts Cause Large-Scale Declines in Food Quality for Fish
| Various authors | Nature Climate Change | 2023
Models restructuring of marine plankton communities through 2100 and predicts cascading consequences for fish biomass and marine food webs.
149. Using Species Distribution Models Only May Underestimate Climate Change Impacts on Future Marine Biodiversity
| Various authors | Ecological Modelling | 2022
Shows that projections ignoring food-web interactions may underestimate losses and overestimate biodiversity gains as marine ecosystems respond to climate change.
150. Towards Climate-Smart, Three-Dimensional Protected Areas for Biodiversity Conservation in the High Seas
| Various authors | Nature Climate Change | 2022
Develops conservation scenarios accounting for species movements across latitude, longitude, and ocean depth while reducing conflicts with fishing.
151. Climate Change 2022 — Oceans and Coastal Ecosystems and Their Services
| IPCC | Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change | 2022
Reviews observed and projected impacts of warming, acidification, sea-level rise, deoxygenation, and extreme events on marine and coastal biodiversity under alternative climate futures.
152. A Global Horizon Scan of Issues Impacting Marine and Coastal Biodiversity Conservation
| Various authors | Nature Ecology & Evolution | 2022
Identifies emerging developments with the potential to alter marine and coastal biodiversity, providing foresight on threats that may not yet be adequately incorporated into conservation policy.
153. Next-Generation Ensemble Projections Reveal Higher Climate Risks for Marine Ecosystems
| Various authors | Nature Climate Change | 2021
Uses the Fish-MIP ensemble with CMIP6 climate projections and finds larger future declines in global marine animal biomass than earlier model generations suggested.
154. Climate Velocity Reveals Increasing Exposure of Deep-Ocean Biodiversity to Future Warming
| Various authors | Nature Climate Change | 2020
Uses climate velocity to project the speed and direction at which marine organisms may need to move to remain within suitable temperature conditions.
155. Twenty-First-Century Climate Change Impacts on Marine Animal Biomass and Ecosystem Structure Across Ocean Basins
| Andrea Bryndum-Buchholz et al. | Global Change Biology | 2019
Uses multiple marine ecosystem models to project changes in animal biomass, ecosystem structure, and regional fisheries productivity through the twenty-first century.
156. Global Ensemble Projections Reveal Trophic Amplification of Ocean Biomass Declines With Climate Change
| Heike K. Lotze et al. | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences | 2019
Combines global marine ecosystem models to project declining animal biomass and stronger climate effects at higher levels of marine food webs.
157. Climate Change Threatens the World's Marine Protected Areas
| John F. Bruno et al. | Nature Climate Change | May 7, 2018
Projects warming and other climatic changes within marine protected areas and shows that local protection cannot fully shield reserves from global climate change.
158. Loss of Coral Reef Growth Capacity to Track Future Increases in Sea Level
| Various authors | Nature | 2018
Compares coral reef growth capacity with projected sea-level rise and shows how future reef survival depends on both emissions and ecological recovery.
159. Future Response of Global Coastal Wetlands to Sea-Level Rise
| Mark Schuerch et al. | Nature | 2018
Uses an integrated global model to assess whether sediment accumulation and inland migration could allow coastal wetlands to persist despite sea-level rise.
160. Marine Protected Areas and Climate Change
| International Union for Conservation of Nature | IUCN | November 2017
Explains how protected-area networks can contribute to climate adaptation and biodiversity resilience while emphasizing the need for major greenhouse-gas reductions.
161. Large Marine Protected Areas Represent Biodiversity Now and Under Climate Change
| T. E. Davies et al. | Scientific Reports | August 29, 2017
Tests how large marine protected areas represent thousands of marine species today and how that representation could change through 2100.
162. Future Vulnerability of Marine Biodiversity Compared With Contemporary and Past Changes
| Gregory Beaugrand et al. | Nature Climate Change | June 1, 2015
Compares projected climatic changes with historical and contemporary variability to identify marine ecosystems likely to experience especially severe future biodiversity disruption.
163. Multi-Model Ensemble Projections of Climate Change Effects on Global Marine Biodiversity
| Various authors | ICES Journal of Marine Science | 2015
Combines multiple ecological models to project future changes in marine biodiversity and demonstrates the value of ensemble approaches for representing uncertainty.
164. Climate Velocity and the Future Global Redistribution of Marine Biodiversity
| Jorge García Molinos et al. | Nature Climate Change | 2015
Projects the geographic movement of suitable marine climates and shows how species distributions and marine communities may reorganize as ocean temperatures change.
165. How Sectors Can Contribute to Sustainable Use and Conservation of Biodiversity
| PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency | PBL | October 6, 2014
Examines how agriculture, fisheries, forestry, energy, and other economic sectors could alter practices to reduce future pressures on biodiversity.
166. Global Imprint of Climate Change on Marine Life
| Elvira S. Poloczanska et al. | Nature Climate Change | August 4, 2013
Synthesizes more than 1,700 marine biological responses and demonstrates widespread climate-driven changes in distributions, phenology, abundance, and community structure.
167. Identifying the World's Most Climate Change Vulnerable Species
| Wendy B. Foden et al. | PLOS ONE | June 12, 2013
Uses sensitivity, exposure, and adaptive-capacity traits to identify climate-vulnerable birds, amphibians, and corals worldwide.
168. Biotic and Human Vulnerability to Projected Changes in Ocean Biogeochemistry Over the 21st Century
| Camilo Mora et al. | PLOS Biology | 2013
Projects simultaneous changes in ocean temperature, acidity, oxygen, and productivity through 2100 and evaluates exposure of marine biodiversity hotspots and human communities.
169. Thermal Tolerance and the Global Redistribution of Animals
| Jennifer M. Sunday, Amanda E. Bates and Nicholas K. Dulvy | Nature Climate Change | 2012
Links thermal tolerances to range boundaries and predicts major differences between marine and terrestrial species redistribution under future warming.
170. The Pace of Shifting Climate in Marine and Terrestrial Ecosystems
| Michael T. Burrows et al. | Science | November 4, 2011
Maps climate velocities globally and shows that the direction and speed of environmental change differ substantially across ecosystems.
171. Large-Scale Redistribution of Maximum Fisheries Catch Potential in the Global Ocean Under Climate Change
| William W. L. Cheung et al. | Global Change Biology | 2010
Projects major geographic redistribution of fisheries productivity as marine species shift their ranges in response to warming.
172. Projecting Global Marine Biodiversity Impacts Under Climate Change Scenarios
| William W. L. Cheung et al. | Fish and Fisheries | 2009
Develops an early global model of marine species redistribution and projects substantial changes in local biodiversity and species turnover under future warming.
Freshwater, Rivers and Wetlands
173. Future of Wetlands' Conservation: Four Alternative Scenarios for 2050
| Monika Mętrak | Wetlands | July 10, 2026
Develops four contrasting wetland futures to 2050, illustrating how governance, climate change, economic priorities, restoration, and social values could determine whether wetlands recover or continue declining.
174. Future Climate Impacts on Biodiversity Trends in Major Global Rivers Worldwide
| Various authors | Ecological Frontiers | June 2026
Projects biodiversity and runoff changes across major rivers under alternative climate scenarios, illustrating how future hydrologic changes could reshape river ecosystems.
175. Future Pathways for the Ecological Quality of Global Freshwater Ecosystems
| Various authors | Environmental Science & Policy | May 2026
Models future ecological quality in freshwater ecosystems under alternative socioeconomic and environmental pathways, showing how pollution, land use, climate change, and restoration policies interact.
176. Future Pathways to Restore the Ecological Quality of Global Freshwater Ecosystems
| PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency | PBL | March 19, 2026
Examines global freshwater futures and identifies combinations of pollution control, habitat restoration, sustainable agriculture, and other interventions capable of improving freshwater biodiversity.
177. Spatially Divergent Impacts of Global Nutrient Emission Scenarios on Freshwater Community Intactness
| Various authors | Environmental Challenges | March 2026
Projects how alternative nutrient-emission pathways could affect freshwater biodiversity, illustrating large geographic differences in future ecological risks and potential benefits from nutrient reductions.
178. Maximizing Nature-Based Solutions Using Artificial Intelligence to Align Global Biodiversity, Climate, and Water Targets
| Various authors | Earth's Future | 2026
Uses reinforcement learning and alternative conservation and restoration scenarios to explore how biodiversity objectives can be coordinated with climate and freshwater benefits.
179. Impact of Climate Change on Protected Area Effectiveness in the Middle and Lower Yangtze River Basin
| Various authors | Journal of Environmental Management | 2026
Uses projected species-range shifts to evaluate future biodiversity, habitat suitability, connectivity, and conservation gaps within a major protected-area network.
180. High Resolution Projections of Freshwater Biodiversity Habitat Shifts Under Global Climate Change
| Jennie C. Steyaert et al. | EGU General Assembly | 2026
Develops high-resolution projections of future freshwater habitat shifts driven by changing water temperature and streamflow.
181. Simulation of the Geographical Distribution of Global Potential Wetlands Under Climate Change
| Various authors | Global Ecology and Conservation | 2025
Projects geographic redistribution of potential wetlands during the 2060s and 2080s under alternative climate scenarios.
182. Climate Change and Freshwater Biodiversity Refuges in the Chilean Mediterranean Ecoregion
| Various authors | Science of the Total Environment | 2025
Projects freshwater fish, macrophyte, and macroinvertebrate distributions to 2050 and 2070 and identifies persistent climate refuges.
183. Bending the Curve of Global Freshwater Biodiversity Loss: What Are the Prospects?
| David Dudgeon and David L. Strayer | Biological Reviews | 2025
Reviews the prospects for reversing freshwater biodiversity loss and considers pollution, habitat alteration, invasive species, overexploitation, river fragmentation, climate change, and conservation interventions.
184. Climate-Driven Shifts in Freshwater Biodiversity Will Impact Mitigation Costs for Hydropower
| Various authors | Science of the Total Environment | December 1, 2024
Examines how climate-driven changes in fish and mussel distributions could alter future ecological mitigation requirements around hydropower development.
185. Climate-Driven Projections of Future Global Wetlands Extent
| Various authors | Earth's Future | 2024
Uses CMIP6 climate models to estimate how major wetland complexes could expand, contract, or shift geographically through the end of the century.
186. Global Conservation Priorities for Wetlands and Setting Post-2025 Targets
| Various authors | Communications Earth & Environment | 2023
Maps global wetland conservation priorities and compares alternative protected-area expansion scenarios.
187. Threats of Global Warming to the World's Freshwater Fishes
| Various authors | Nature Communications | 2021
Projects risks to freshwater fish species at different levels of global warming and shows that stronger climate mitigation could substantially reduce future exposure.
188. Future Impacts of Climate Change on Inland Ramsar Wetlands
| Yi Xi et al. | Nature Climate Change | November 2, 2020
Projects changes in wetland area across 1,250 internationally important Ramsar sites and compares outcomes under different warming scenarios.
189. Wetlands Rise and Fall: Six Endangered Wetland Species Showed Different Patterns of Habitat Shift Under Future Climate Change
| Various authors | Science of the Total Environment | 2020
Demonstrates that endangered wetland plants can show contraction, instability, or expansion under future climate scenarios rather than responding uniformly to warming.
190. Current and Future Effects of Global Change on a Hotspot's Freshwater Diversity
| Various authors | Science of the Total Environment | 2018
Combines multiple global-change pressures to evaluate future freshwater biodiversity, providing an example of how climate, land use, and other drivers can interact within biodiversity hotspots.
Land Use, Agriculture, Restoration and Urbanization
191. Species and Climate Change
| International Union for Conservation of Nature | IUCN | Current
Reviews how climate change affects species and describes conservation responses including emissions reduction, habitat protection, restoration, and adaptation planning.
192. Biodiversity and Climate Change
Summarizes interactions between climate change and biodiversity loss and highlights ecosystem protection, restoration, biosphere reserves, and Indigenous knowledge as elements of more resilient futures.
193. The Fate of Mountain Biodiversity in a Warming World
| Benjamin G. Freeman et al. | Nature Reviews Biodiversity | May 25, 2026
Reviews how warming, upward range shifts, shrinking mountaintop habitats, extreme events, and ecological interactions could determine the future of mountain biodiversity.
194. Future Scenarios for British Biodiversity Under Climate and Land-Use Change
| Rob Cooke et al. | Nature Communications | March 31, 2026
Models alternative climate and land-use futures to investigate how combinations of environmental change and policy choices could reshape biodiversity across Britain.
195. Ecological Constraints on Tropical Forest Recovery Challenge the Long-Term Vision of the Kunming–Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework
| Various authors | BioScience | February 28, 2026
Examines whether the speed and ecological limitations of tropical forest recovery are compatible with long-term biodiversity restoration goals and cautions against assuming that ecosystem restoration is rapid or automatic.
196. Can We Bend the Curve? Trends in Global Biodiversity Scenarios
| Flavia Aschi et al. | Science Advances | February 6, 2026
Reviews 138 modeled global biodiversity scenarios and finds that relatively few actually reverse biodiversity decline. Successful pathways generally integrate conservation, sustainable food production, dietary change, and reduced food waste.
197. The Global Geography of Plant Invasion Risk Under Future Climate and Land-Use Changes
| Various authors | Nature Ecology & Evolution | 2026
Models almost 10,000 naturalized alien plants and projects substantial geographic rearrangement of global invasion hotspots under future climate and land-use scenarios.
198. Predicted decline in common bird and butterfly species even under conservation policy scenarios in Europe
| Various authors | Nature Ecology & Evolution | 2026
Projects future populations of widespread birds and butterflies and finds that conservation policies alone may be insufficient to prevent substantial declines without broader changes in land use and environmental pressures.
199. Modelling the Paths Ahead: Predicting Future Global Biodiversity Intactness Under Nature Futures Framework Scenarios
| Patrick Walkden et al. | World Biodiversity Forum | 2026
Uses PREDICTS and global land-use modeling to compare Biodiversity Intactness Index trajectories under four Nature Futures scenarios and a business-as-usual future.
200. Global Land-Use Change Rivals Climate Change in Driving Projected Diversity Shifts of Terrestrial Vertebrates
| Various authors | iScience | 2026
Projects terrestrial vertebrate diversity to 2100 and finds that future land-use change may contribute almost as strongly as climate change to global biodiversity redistribution.
201. Future Climate and Land Use Change Will Equally Impact Global Terrestrial Vertebrate Diversity
| Various authors | Global Ecology and Biogeography | 2026
Integrates future climate and land-use change to estimate combined effects on terrestrial vertebrate distributions through mid- and late-century.
202. Climate-Driven Redistribution of Global Haloxylon Habitat Revealed by Ensemble Species Distribution Models
| Various authors | Journal of Environmental Management | 2026
Projects redistribution of an ecologically important dryland plant genus and considers consequences for restoration across the world's arid regions.
203. The Potential for AI to Revolutionize Conservation: A Horizon Scan
| Various authors | Trends in Ecology & Evolution | 2025
Explores future applications of artificial intelligence in biodiversity monitoring, ecological modeling, enforcement, restoration, decision-making, and conservation planning while also considering potential risks.
204. Integrate Biodiversity and Resilience Into Climate-Driven Forest Restoration Strategies for the Atlantic Forest
| Various authors | One Earth | 2025
Calls for restoration scenarios to incorporate biodiversity, ecosystem services, and future climate resilience rather than focusing primarily on carbon.
205. Conservation Outcomes of Dietary Transitions Across Different Values of Nature
| Various authors | Nature Sustainability | 2025
Models how changes in human diets could affect biodiversity while explicitly considering different ways societies value nature, linking food-system transitions with conservation outcomes.
206. Addressing the Urgent Climate and Biodiversity Crisis Through Strategic Ecosystem Restoration in Brazil
| Various authors | Biological Conservation | 2025
Uses spatial prioritization to identify restoration areas capable of maximizing biodiversity, connectivity, and carbon benefits.
207. Climate Change and Land Use Scenarios to Protect Biodiversity
| Oliver Schelske | World Economic Forum | December 16, 2024
Explains how biodiversity and ecosystem-service scenarios can help governments and businesses anticipate future nature-related risks and evaluate resilience strategies.
208. Incorporating Biodiversity Impacts in Land Use Decisions
| Various authors | Ecological Modelling | November 2024
Examines methods for integrating biodiversity consequences into models of future land allocation, helping reveal tradeoffs among agriculture, development, conservation, and other land uses.
209. The War in Ukraine Is Changing Plausible Future Socioeconomic Scenarios Leading to an Unexplored Outlook for Biodiversity
| Claire Vincent et al. | Conservation Science and Practice | August 31, 2024
Argues that geopolitical changes in energy, agriculture, and international trade may make established SSP-based biodiversity futures less representative of plausible real-world trajectories.
210. Global Trends and Scenarios for Terrestrial Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services From 1900 to 2050
| Henrique M. Pereira et al. | Science | 2024
Uses multiple biodiversity and ecosystem-service models to reconstruct historical change and project alternative futures to 2050 under different land-use and climate pathways.
211. Global Evaluation of Current and Future Threats to Drylands and Their Vertebrate Biodiversity
| Various authors | Nature Ecology & Evolution | 2024
Assesses present and projected pressures on dryland biodiversity, providing a global view of how climate change and human land use could alter already vulnerable ecosystems.
212. Effects of Profit-Driven Cropland Expansion and Conservation Policies
| Various authors | Nature Sustainability | 2024
Models possible future cropland expansion and examines how alternative global conservation policies could shift biodiversity losses, agricultural production, and carbon emissions.
213. Biodiversity Is Central for Restoration
| Various authors | Current Biology | 2024
Argues that future ecosystem restoration should make biodiversity a primary objective rather than treating it as a secondary benefit of carbon or ecosystem-service projects.
214. Global Impacts of Future Urban Expansion on Natural Habitats Undermine the 2050 Vision for Biodiversity
| Various authors | Resources, Conservation and Recycling | March 2023
Projects future urban expansion and evaluates its consequences for natural habitats, demonstrating how urbanization could complicate efforts to achieve global biodiversity goals by 2050.
215. Land-Use and Climate Risk Assessment for Earth's Remaining Wilderness
| Ernest F. Asamoah et al. | Current Biology | 2023
Projects climate and land-use changes across remaining wilderness areas to 2050 and compares high-emissions development with a more sustainable future pathway.
216. Global Impacts of Future Urban Expansion on Terrestrial Vertebrate Diversity
| Various authors | Nature Communications | 2022
Projects how urban growth could affect terrestrial vertebrates and identifies regions where future development may create particularly strong conflicts between urbanization and biodiversity conservation.
217. Achieving Global Biodiversity Goals by 2050 Requires Urgent and Integrated Actions
| Various authors | One Earth | 2022
Examines pathways toward global biodiversity recovery and concludes that conservation measures must be combined with wider transformations in production, consumption, land use, and climate policy.
218. The Global Potential for Land Restoration: Scenarios for the Global Land Outlook 2
| PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency | PBL | June 4, 2021
Quantifies how alternative global restoration strategies could affect biodiversity, food, water, soil condition, and climate through 2050.
219. Historical and Projected Future Range Sizes of the World's Mammals, Birds, and Amphibians
| Robert M. Beyer and Andrea Manica | Nature Communications | November 6, 2020
Reconstructs historical habitat losses and projects future species-range changes, demonstrating the cumulative effects of human land use on global vertebrate biodiversity.
220. Bending the Curve: The Restorative Power of Planet-Based Diets
| WWF | World Wildlife Fund | October 9, 2020
Examines how dietary changes could reduce agricultural pressure on habitats and contribute to a broader global strategy for reversing biodiversity loss.
221. Towards Sustainable Land Use: Key Issues, Interactions and Trade-Offs in the Land-Use Nexus
| OECD | Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development | 2020
Uses SSP-based projections to show how different development pathways could affect terrestrial biodiversity, agriculture, forests, climate, and land degradation through 2050.
222. Projecting Terrestrial Biodiversity Intactness With GLOBIO 4
| Aafke M. Schipper et al. | Global Change Biology | 2020
Introduces the GLOBIO4 modeling framework for estimating how land use, infrastructure, fragmentation, hunting, atmospheric nitrogen, and climate change affect terrestrial biodiversity.
223. Proactive Conservation to Prevent Habitat Losses to Agricultural Expansion
| Various authors | Nature Sustainability | 2020
Projects where future agricultural expansion could threaten natural habitats and argues for anticipating land-use conversion rather than relying only on conservation after threats appear.
224. Global Biodiversity Outlook 5
| Convention on Biological Diversity | CBD | 2020
Reviews progress toward global biodiversity targets and presents pathways to 2050 showing how conservation, restoration, climate action, and sustainable production and consumption could produce biodiversity recovery.
225. Projecting Global Biodiversity Impacts Under Future Land-Use-Change Scenarios
| Ryan P. Powers and Walter Jetz | Nature Climate Change | March 4, 2019
Projects biodiversity impacts of future land-use change across species and geographic regions, identifying areas where development pathways could produce particularly severe habitat losses.
226. Climate and Land-Use Changes Reshuffle Politically-Weighted Priority Areas of Mountain Biodiversity
| Various authors | Global Ecology and Conservation | 2019
Demonstrates how climate and land-use changes can move biodiversity priorities away from existing reserves and alter future conservation costs.
227. Changes in Human Footprint Drive Changes in Species Extinction Risk
| Moreno Di Marco et al. | Nature Communications | November 5, 2018
Links changes in cumulative human pressure with changing mammal extinction risk and provides a framework for forecasting biodiversity consequences of future development.
228. Terrestrial Vertebrate Biodiversity Loss Under Future Global Land Use Change Scenarios
| Abhishek Chaudhary and Arne O. Mooers | Sustainability | August 5, 2018
Projects impacts of future land-use change on terrestrial vertebrate biodiversity and compares losses across regions and socioeconomic pathways.
229. The Future of Food and Agriculture — Alternative Pathways to 2050
| Food and Agriculture Organization | FAO | 2018
Develops alternative global futures for food and agriculture through 2050 and analyzes consequences for land, forests, natural resources, food security, and environmental sustainability.
230. Options for Keeping the Food System Within Environmental Limits
| Marco Springmann et al. | Nature | 2018
Models combinations of dietary change, technological improvements, reduced food waste, and better agricultural management needed to prevent growing food demand from exceeding environmental limits.
231. Global Projections of Future Cropland Expansion to 2050 and Direct Impacts on Biodiversity and Carbon Storage
| Amy Molotoks et al. | Global Change Biology | 2018
Projects where cropland may expand by 2050 and evaluates conflicts between agricultural growth, biodiversity conservation, and carbon storage.
232. Assessment Report on Land Degradation and Restoration
Assesses global land degradation and models the implications of continued degradation versus restoration and sustainable land-management pathways for biodiversity and human well-being.
233. A Protocol for an Intercomparison of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services Models Using Harmonized Land-Use and Climate Scenarios
| Hyejin Kim et al. | Geoscientific Model Development | 2018
Establishes the BES-SIM model-comparison framework, allowing different biodiversity models to make comparable projections under standardized land-use and climate scenarios.
234. Global Forest Loss Disproportionately Erodes Biodiversity in Intact Landscapes
| Matthew G. Betts et al. | Nature | July 19, 2017
Shows that future forest loss may produce especially severe biodiversity consequences when it occurs in landscapes that remain comparatively intact today.
235. Exploring the Impact of Changes in Land Use and Land Condition on Food, Water, Climate Change Mitigation and Biodiversity
| PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency | UNCCD | July 1, 2017
Projects global land-use and land-condition changes to 2050 and assesses tradeoffs among biodiversity, agriculture, water, and climate objectives.
236. Future Threats to Biodiversity and Pathways to Their Prevention
| David Tilman et al. | Nature | May 31, 2017
Projects biodiversity losses associated with agricultural expansion and argues that higher agricultural efficiency and dietary shifts could meet food needs while greatly reducing habitat destruction.
237. Biodiversity Redistribution Under Climate Change: Impacts on Ecosystems and Human Well-Being
| Gretta T. Pecl et al. | Science | 2017
Reviews the global redistribution of species and explains how shifting biodiversity will transform ecological interactions, economies, food systems, health, and conservation.
238. Has Land Use Pushed Terrestrial Biodiversity Beyond the Planetary Boundary?
| Tim Newbold et al. | Science | July 15, 2016
Estimates global biodiversity intactness and identifies regions where human land use may already have pushed ecological systems beyond proposed safe limits.
239. Biodiversity Scenarios Neglect Future Land-Use Changes
| Nicolas Titeux et al. | Global Change Biology | 2016
Reviews biodiversity forecasting studies and finds that many emphasize climate change while inadequately accounting for future land-use and land-cover change.
240. Global Effects of Land Use on Local Terrestrial Biodiversity
| Tim Newbold et al. | Nature | 2015
Quantifies how human land use reduces local species richness and abundance and provides a baseline for models projecting future biodiversity under changing land use.
241. Accelerated Dryland Expansion Under Climate Change
| Various authors | Nature Climate Change | 2015
Projects substantial expansion of global drylands under higher-emissions pathways, with implications for habitat condition, carbon storage, and biodiversity.
242. Future Distribution Scenarios for the World's Mammals
| Global Mammal Assessment | Global Mammal Assessment | 2012
Provides global distribution scenarios for roughly 5,000 terrestrial mammal species under combined future land-use and climate-change pathways to 2050.
Energy, Climate Mitigation and Biodiversity Trade-Offs
243. Biodiversity Implications of Land-Intensive Carbon Dioxide Removal
| Various authors | Nature Climate Change | 2026
Investigates the biodiversity consequences of large-scale land-based carbon removal and highlights possible conflicts between climate mitigation, ecosystem protection, food production, and habitat conservation.
244. Balancing Land Use for Conservation, Agriculture, and Renewable Energy
| Grace C. Wu et al. | Nature Communications | 2026
Compares nature-first, production-first, and integrated planning scenarios for allocating land among biodiversity conservation, agriculture, and renewable energy through 2050.
245. The Global Sustainable Bioenergy Potential Until 2050 in Global-National Resolution
| Various authors | Applied Energy | December 1, 2025
Models sustainable waste- and residue-based bioenergy futures while attempting to avoid some of the land and biodiversity conflicts associated with dedicated energy crops.
246. Land-Use Competition Between Biodiversity and Net Zero Goals
| International Energy Agency | IEA | June 4, 2025
Examines future competition for land among renewable energy, mining, food production, carbon removal, and the global 30×30 biodiversity target.
247. Biodiversity Impacts of Land Occupation for Renewable Energy Infrastructure in a Globally Connected World
| Various authors | Environmental Science & Technology | 2025
Projects cumulative biodiversity impacts from renewable-energy land occupation through 2060 and highlights potential conflicts with biodiversity hotspots.
248. The Choice of Land-Based Climate Change Mitigation Measures Influences Future Global Biodiversity Loss
| Various authors | Communications Earth & Environment | 2024
Shows that climate mitigation strategies can have very different biodiversity effects depending on their reliance on bioenergy, afforestation, ecosystem restoration, and other land-intensive measures.
249. Global Bioenergy Potentials Projections for 2050
| M. R. Errera et al. | Biomass and Bioenergy | March 2023
Develops alternative scenarios for global bioenergy production through 2050 and illustrates how future energy choices could increase pressure on land.
250. Projected Landscape-Scale Repercussions of Global Action for Climate and Biodiversity Protection
| Various authors | Nature Communications | 2023
Models how alternative combinations of climate mitigation, protected-area expansion, and other environmental policies could reorganize agricultural and natural landscapes worldwide.
251. Global Biodiversity Implications of Alternative Electrification Strategies Under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
| Various authors | Biological Conservation | August 2021
Evaluates how different electricity-generation pathways could affect global biodiversity, demonstrating that decarbonization strategies themselves can create different ecological footprints.
252. Global Biodiversity Outlook 5 — Scenarios and Pathways to 2050
| Convention on Biological Diversity | CBD | 2020
Provides detailed scenario analysis supporting GBO-5, including alternative trajectories for ecosystems, species, food systems, climate mitigation, and sustainable development.
253. Biodiversity Can Benefit From Climate Stabilization Despite Adverse Side Effects of Land-Based Mitigation
| Various authors | Nature Communications | 2019
Compares future biodiversity effects of climate stabilization with the ecological costs of land-based mitigation measures such as bioenergy and afforestation.
254. Dependency of Global Primary Bioenergy Crop Potentials in 2050 on Food Systems, Yields, Biodiversity Conservation and Political Stability
| Karl-Heinz Erb et al. | Energy Policy | 2012
Shows how assumptions about biodiversity protection, agricultural productivity, diets, and governance dramatically alter estimates of land available for bioenergy.
255. The Global Technical Potential of Bio-Energy in 2050 Considering Sustainability Constraints
| Various authors | Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability | 2010
Reviews bioenergy scenarios and emphasizes that biodiversity conservation and food-production requirements substantially constrain realistic land-based energy potential.
Invasive Species, Pollution and Emerging Pressures
256. Global Pesticide Use Scenarios Up to 2050 Along the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways
| Poornima Nagesh et al. | Current Research in Environmental Sustainability | 2026
Develops global pesticide-use projections under alternative SSP futures and evaluates how dietary change, regulation, agriculture, and food waste could alter future chemical pressure on ecosystems.
257. Without Big Changes, This Is What the Environment Will Look Like in 2050
| United Nations Environment Programme | UNEP | December 15, 2025
Summarizes GEO-7 projections of biodiversity loss, pollution, climate impacts, and ecosystem degradation under continuation of current global trends.
258. The Current and Future State of the Triple Planetary Crisis
| OECD | Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development | 2025
Projects biodiversity intactness and other environmental indicators to 2050 under current policy trajectories while connecting biodiversity loss with climate change and pollution.
259. Global Environment Outlook 7: A Future We Choose
| United Nations Environment Programme | UNEP | 2025
Compares continuation of current global development trends with transformative environmental pathways and examines consequences for biodiversity, climate, land degradation, pollution, economies, and human well-being.
260. Conservation Futures 2050: Developing Future Scenarios to Explore Potential Socio-Economic Developments and Their Impact on Biodiversity
| Jennifer L. Bufford et al. | PLOS ONE | 2024
Uses structured scenario building to examine how land stewardship, afforestation, invasive-species control, and extreme weather could reshape conservation by 2050.
261. IPBES Assessment Report on Invasive Alien Species and Their Control
Assesses global invasion trends, future risks, major pathways of introduction, and strategies capable of preventing or reducing future biodiversity losses caused by invasive alien species.
262. Alternative Futures for Global Biological Invasions
| Various authors | Sustainability Science | May 10, 2021
Uses scenario development to explore how globalization, trade, governance, technology, environmental awareness, and socioeconomic change could increase or decrease future biological invasions.
263. Making Peace With Nature
| United Nations Environment Programme | UNEP | February 18, 2021
Synthesizes evidence on biodiversity loss, climate change, and pollution and describes transformative pathways through which human development could operate within environmental limits.
264. Projecting the Continental Accumulation of Alien Species Through to 2050
| Hanno Seebens et al. | Global Change Biology | 2021
Models future alien-species accumulation and shows that biological invasions are likely to continue increasing substantially under business-as-usual conditions.
265. Invasive Weed Species' Threats to Global Biodiversity: Future Scenarios of Changes in the Number of Invasive Species in a Changing Climate
| Various authors | Ecological Indicators | September 2020
Models how climate change could alter the number and distribution of invasive weeds and identifies regions where future invasion pressure may increase.
266. Introducing AlienScenarios: A Project to Develop Scenarios and Models of Biological Invasions for the 21st Century
| Various authors | NeoBiota / Invasion Science | 2019
Describes a coordinated effort to develop plausible global biological-invasion futures for 2050 and 2100 using socioeconomic scenarios and ecological models.
267. Nitrogen Deposition and Plant Biodiversity: Past, Present, and Future
| Richard J. Payne et al. | Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment | September 5, 2017
Reviews how atmospheric nitrogen deposition has affected plant communities and considers how future changes in emissions may influence terrestrial biodiversity.
268. Assessment Report on Pollinators, Pollination and Food Production
Reviews trends and future risks affecting pollinators and examines how land use, pesticides, climate change, invasive species, agriculture, and management choices could alter pollination services.
269. Growing Pressures on Ecosystems
| European Environment Agency | EEA | 2015
Reviews global biodiversity projections to mid-century and discusses increasing pressures from habitat conversion, bioenergy, climate change, invasive species, and consumption.
270. Will Climate Change Promote Future Invasions?
| Boris Leroy et al. | Global Change Biology | 2014
Projects future ranges for major invasive alien species under climate and land-use change and identifies potential future invasion hotspots.
271. OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050
| OECD | Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development | 2012
Uses socioeconomic scenarios to project environmental conditions to 2050, including biodiversity loss, land-use change, climate change, water stress, and pollution.
272. Global Assessment of Nitrogen Deposition Effects on Terrestrial Plant Diversity: A Synthesis
| Roland Bobbink et al. | Ecological Applications | 2010
Synthesizes evidence on nitrogen-driven plant diversity loss and provides a basis for understanding how alternative future nitrogen-emission pathways could affect terrestrial ecosystems.
273. GLOBIO3: A Framework to Investigate Options for Reducing Global Terrestrial Biodiversity Loss
| Alkemade et al. | Ecosystems | 2009
Introduces the GLOBIO3 global biodiversity model, linking biodiversity intactness with land use, infrastructure, fragmentation, nitrogen deposition, and climate change to test alternative future policies.
274. Future Nitrogen Deposition in Global Biodiversity Hotspots
| Various authors | Global Change Biology | 2006
Projects atmospheric nitrogen deposition to 2050 and identifies biodiversity hotspots where increasing nutrient pollution could threaten sensitive ecosystems.
275. Global Biodiversity Scenarios for the Year 2100
| Osvaldo E. Sala et al. | Science | March 10, 2000
A foundational global scenario study comparing major drivers of biodiversity change—including land use, climate, nitrogen deposition, biological invasions, and atmospheric carbon dioxide—through 2100.
Genetic Diversity, Species Adaptation and Assisted Migration
276. Halting Genetic Diversity Loss, From Local to International Action and Policy
| Robyn E. Shaw et al. | Nature Reviews Biodiversity | June 3, 2026
Reviews how genetic diversity can be incorporated into conservation monitoring, management, and international biodiversity policy so populations retain their capacity to adapt to future environmental change.
277. Genetic Diversity Is a Key Factor in Climate-Driven Range Shifts
| U.S. Geological Survey | USGS | May 19, 2026
Summarizes global evidence indicating that genetic diversity can influence the ability of species to shift their ranges as climatic conditions change.
278. IUCN Programme 2026–2029
| International Union for Conservation of Nature | IUCN | 2026
Sets future conservation priorities for ecosystems, species, genetic diversity, restoration, nature-based solutions, and equitable sustainable use.
279. Future Projections of Biodiversity Under Global Change Need to Include Genetic Diversity
| Roslyn C. Henry | Global Change Biology | August 26, 2025
Argues that future biodiversity projections are incomplete unless they incorporate genetic diversity and the adaptive capacity it provides to populations.
280. The Application of Assisted Migration as a Climate Change Adaptation Tactic: An Evidence Map and Synthesis
| Various authors | Biological Conservation | 2023
Reviews real-world and experimental attempts to move organisms toward more climatically suitable locations and assesses the evidence available for future conservation decisions.
281. Global Biodiversity Framework Goal A — Protect and Restore
| United Nations Environment Programme | UNEP | 2023
Defines the long-term vision of maintaining and restoring ecosystem integrity while greatly reducing extinction risk and preserving genetic diversity by 2050.
282. IUCN SSC Guidelines for Assessing Species' Vulnerability to Climate Change
| Wendy B. Foden and Bruce E. Young, editors | IUCN | 2016
Provides practical methods for estimating species exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity and translating future climate projections into conservation assessments.
283. Assessing Species Vulnerability to Climate Change
| Michela Pacifici et al. | Nature Climate Change | 2015
Reviews methods for predicting species vulnerability and argues that robust future assessments should combine exposure with biological sensitivity and adaptive capacity.
284. Coming to Terms With the Concept of Moving Species Threatened by Climate Change
| Various authors | PLOS ONE | 2014
Reviews hundreds of publications on assisted migration and clarifies terminology surrounding deliberate movement of species as a response to future climate change.
285. Taking Stock of the Assisted Migration Debate
| Various authors | Biological Conservation | 2011
Reviews the risks, benefits, scientific arguments, and policy questions surrounding deliberate relocation of species threatened by future climate change.
286. Climate Change and Biodiversity Conservation: Impacts, Adaptation Strategies and Future Research Directions
| Various authors | Biodiversity and Conservation Review | 2010
Reviews projected biodiversity impacts and conservation responses including reserve redesign, connectivity, assisted colonization, restoration, monitoring, and reduction of non-climate threats.
Economics, Finance, Justice and Governance
287. Pathways Towards Just and Nature-Positive Futures
| PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency | PBL | June 12, 2026
Explores pathways in which biodiversity recovery is pursued together with social justice, emphasizing that nature-positive futures depend on changes in governance, consumption, economic systems, and relationships with nature.
288. State of Finance for Nature 2026
| United Nations Environment Programme | UNEP | January 22, 2026
Examines current financial flows affecting nature and estimates investment needs through 2030 and 2050 for biodiversity conservation, restoration, climate action, and nature-based solutions.
289. Pathways to a Nature Positive Agricultural Sector
| Various authors | npj Sustainable Agriculture | 2026
Develops a 2050 nature-positive agricultural vision addressing habitat protection, connectivity, soil health, Indigenous stewardship, finance, supply chains, and sustainable consumption.
290. A Framework for Just, Nature-Positive Futures Based on the Nature Futures Framework
| Lucas Rutting and Machteld Schoolenberg | World Biodiversity Forum | 2026
Develops pathways for combining nature-positive development with justice and equity across cities, landscapes, and global value chains.
291. How Should We Bend the Curve of Biodiversity Loss to Build a Just and Sustainable Future?
| Jon Bridle et al. | Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B | January 9, 2025
Examines biodiversity recovery as a societal transformation rather than simply a conservation problem, emphasizing justice, governance, human behavior, and the distribution of conservation costs and benefits.
292. Protected Planet Report 2024
| UNEP-WCMC and IUCN | UNEP | October 28, 2024
Assesses progress toward conserving 30% of land and sea by 2030 and evaluates coverage, connectivity, ecological representation, governance, and effectiveness of the global protected-area network.
293. Living Planet Report 2024
| WWF | World Wildlife Fund | October 10, 2024
Reviews global biodiversity trends and explores pathways for transforming food, energy, finance, and conservation systems in ways that could reverse nature loss.
294. Representing Justice in Global Land-Use Scenarios Can Align Biodiversity Benefits With Protection From Land Grabbing
| Various authors | One Earth | 2024
Demonstrates that global land-use scenarios can explicitly include social justice and protection of land-dependent communities while still pursuing biodiversity conservation objectives.
295. The Economic Case for Nature
| World Bank | World Bank | 2021
Uses an integrated global economy–ecosystem model to explore how continued nature loss and alternative policy responses could affect economies and development.
296. Biodiversity: Finance and the Economic and Business Case for Action
| OECD | Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development | December 6, 2019
Examines the economic consequences of continued biodiversity loss and discusses policy, finance, and business changes that could redirect development toward more biodiversity-compatible futures.
297. The Importance of Land Governance for Biodiversity Conservation in an Era of Global Urban Expansion
| Various authors | Landscape and Urban Planning | 2018
Maps where future urban growth and weak governance could combine to produce especially severe losses of high-value biodiversity habitat.
298. Cost of Policy Inaction on Biodiversity
| PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency et al. | PBL | 2008
Develops a global baseline scenario showing how biodiversity could continue declining toward 2050 if existing policies are not strengthened.
299. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment — Scenarios Assessment
| Millennium Ecosystem Assessment | Millennium Ecosystem Assessment | 2005
Develops four influential global futures exploring alternative trajectories for ecosystems, biodiversity, ecosystem services, governance, and human well-being.
