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They wanted to save us from a dark AI future. Then six people were killed
by J Oliver Conroy 5/3/25 The Guardian
Years before she became the peculiar central thread linking a double homicide in Pennsylvania, the fatal shooting of a federal agent in Vermont and the murder of an elderly landlord in California, a computer programmer bought a sailboat.
Violent crime is dropping fast in the U.S. — even if Americans don't believe it
by Karen Zamora,Ari Shapiro,Courtney Dorning 12/2/24 npr
The number of murders across the country surged by nearly 30% between 2019 and 2020, according to FBI statistics. The overall violent crime rate, which includes murder, assault, robbery and rape, inched up around 5% in the same period.
Fact check: Violent crime in DC has fallen in 2024 and 2025 after a 2023 spike
President Donald Trump, justifying his temporary federal takeover of policing in the nation’s capital, claimed at a press conference Monday that the violent crime situation in Washington, DC, “is getting worse, not getting better.” He asserted in an executive order that “crime is out of control in the District of Columbia” and that there is “rising violence in the capital.”
D.C.'s crime numbers are all the buzz. But how do we interpret them accurately?
Juliana Kim is a reporter on the General Assignment desk. She has covered breaking news and major events across politics, science, sports, pop culture, international affairs, and more. Her work has appeared on Up First, The Indicator from Planet Money and It's Been a Minute.
Chicago sees historic drop in violent crime during first half of 2025
by William Brangham 3/7/25 PBS NEWS
The city of Chicago saw a historic drop in homicides in the first half of the year, a trend that has largely been mirrored nationwide. For a deeper look at the state of violent crime in the U.S., William Brangham spoke with Jeff Asher. His Real-Time Crime Index compiles data from hundreds of law enforcement agencies nationwide.
New York struggles with a sharp rise in violent crime amid COVID-19
by Jeffrey Brown, Sam Weber 20/5 PBS NEWS
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2017 U.S. Crime Rates Expected To Show Drop-Off
This week alone, Attorney General Jeff Sessions has visited three states to push the Justice Department's efforts to crack down on what he describes as a crime wave sweeping the nation.
Something remarkable is happening with violent crime rates in the US
Americans remained scared of violent crime. The numbers tell a different story.
Crime in New York City Plunges to a Level Not Seen Since the 1950s
by Ashley Southall 27/12/17 The New York Times
It would have seemed unbelievable in 1990, when there were 2,245 killings in New York City, but as of Wednesday there have been just 286 in the city this year — the lowest since reliable records have been kept.
How Crime Rates In New York City Reached Record Lows
In 1990, the number of murders in New York City peaked, with more than 2,200 people killed. That same year, Bill Bratton took command as chief of the New York City Transit Police. He went on to serve as New York City police commissioner from 1994 to 1996. It was during those years, and the years following, that the city saw a precipitous drop in murder rates, violent crimes, burglary and vehicle theft.
FBI stats on hate crimes are scary. So is what’s missing
by Maya Berry and Kai Wiggins 14/11/18 CNN
The federal government’s 2017 hate crime statistics are out, and they show a disturbing trend: Last year, as in 2016 and 2015 before, hate crimes were on the rise. But what the data fail to show is perhaps even more alarm
A look at D.C. crime stats as Trump and city leaders offer competing claims
by Amna Nawaz 19/8/25 PBS NEWS
President Trump paints the nation’s capital as a city beset by crime and called in National Guard troops. D.C. leaders contend there is no crisis, pointing to crime rates at 30-year lows. But Charles Lehman of the conservative Manhattan Institute argues neither side is telling the complete truth. Amna Nawaz spoke with Lehman about how both the locals and feds could pursue smarter solutions.
Trump’s DC rhetoric echoes history of racist narratives about urban crime
by Matt Brown 12/8/25 PBS NEWS
WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump has taken control of D.C.’s law enforcement and ordered National Guard troops to deploy onto the streets of the nation’s capital, arguing the extraordinary moves are necessary to curb an urgent public safety crisis.
Violent crime drops but remains at "historic highs"
by Meira Gebel, Russell Contreras 3/3/25 AXIOS Portland
Homicides in Portland fell 8% from 2023 to 2024 amid a drop in overall violent crime, according to preliminary data.
Free speech needs fearless journalism
One chart that puts mass incarceration in historical context
Big Cities See Violent Crime Rates Fall In 2013
Cities across the country saw sharp drops in violent crime rates in 2013. For some big cities, murder rates reached historic lows. The numbers reflect a decades-long decline, which shows that plenty of neighborhoods in urban areas are safe while some remain troubled by violent crime.
Ice arrests of migrants with no criminal history surging under Trump
by José Olivares and Will Craft 14/6/25 The Guardian
The federal Immigration and Customs Enforcement (Ice) agency has exponentially increased the arrest and detention of immigrants without any criminal history since the second Trump administration took office, a data analysis by the Guardian shows.
Researchers say the FBI's statistics on hate crimes across the country are flawed
The FBI annualized collection of data from law enforcement agencies saw 7,262 crimes motivated by race, religion, gender or other factors last year. That's a decrease from 8,263 incidents in 2020. But those numbers offer misleading conclusions as they are drawn from a pool of 3,255 fewer law enforcement agencies.
Free speech needs fearless journalism
by Joseph Stromberg 4/11/15 Vox
The forgotten history of how automakers invented the crime of “jaywalking”
In a Safer Age, U.S. Rethinks Its ‘Tough on Crime’ System
by Erik Eckholm 13/1/15 The New York Times
The new law expanded the death penalty, and offered the states billions of dollars to hire more police officers and to build more prisons. But what was not clear at the time was that violent crime had already peaked in the early ’90s, starting a decline that has cut the nation’s rates of murder, robbery and assault by half.
Trump: the murder rate is at a 45-year high. Actual statistics: that’s not remotely true.
Trump has repeated this lie over and over again.
How Baltimore’s violent crime rate hit an all-time low: ‘This is not magic. It’s hard work’
by George Chidi 16/8/25 The Guardian
A woman in the neighborhood saw what was about to go down and banged on the door of Safe Streets, a longstanding city-run violence-prevention program and a fixture in Baltimore. Wees knows his community, and knew one of the men well – a guy with a high potential for violence. A shooter. The other guy was new, Wees said.
‘Shocking,’ historic spike in anti-Jewish threats across the US, ADL says
Threats to Jews in the United States tripled in the one-year period since the deadly October 7 terrorist attack on Israel by Hamas, preliminary data provided to CNN by the Anti-Defamation League shows.
Nation's violent crime rate fell in 2024 to lowest in 20 years: FBI
by Russell Contreras 6/8/25 AXIOS
Taking you inside the AI revolution, and delivering scoops and insights on the technologies and regulations reshaping our lives.
Violent crime is down and the US murder rate is plunging, FBI statistics show
by Josh Campbell and Devan Cole 10/6/24 CNN
The new numbers show violent crime from January to March dropped 15.2% compared to the same period in 2023, while murders fell 26.4% and reported rapes decreased by 25.7%. Aggravated assaults decreased during that period
Free speech needs fearless journalism
Ta-Nehisi Coates: “For African Americans, unfreedom is the historical norm”
Machine Bias
by Julia Angwin 23/5/16 PRO PUBLICA
On a spring afternoon in 2014, Brisha Borden was running late to pick up her god-sister from school when she spotted an unlocked kid’s blue Huffy bicycle and a silver Razor scooter. Borden and a friend grabbed the bike and scooter and tried to ride them down the street in the Fort Lauderdale suburb of Coral Springs.
US records highest increase in nation’s homicide rate in modern history, CDC says
by Jacqueline Howard 6/10/21 CNN
“The only larger increase since we’ve been recording these data occurred between 1904 and 1905, and that increase was most likely – at least partly – the result of better reporting,” Anderson told CNN. “We had states being added to what we refer to as the death registration areas, so we were counting deaths in more areas over time. We didn’t have all states reporting until 1933.”
Times and spaces of crime in the Historic Centre of Porto: Evidence from official data
by Rui Leandro Maia 7/24 ScienceDirect
The analysis of official data is a traditional strategy to study criminality in a geographic space (e.g., city, country). This work focuses on the analysis of the official statistics of crime against property at the Historic Centre of Porto, Portugal, in 2018. It addresses temporal (i.e., by period of the week, time of day) and spatial patterns (i.e., spatial analysis, typology of spaces) of crime occurrences. The database was analyzed through descriptive and inferential statistics, and by spatial density analysis.
War and Peace
by Bastian Herre Our World in Data
The number would be much higher still if it also considered the civilians who died due to the fighting, the increased number of deaths from hunger and disease resulting from these conflicts, and the deaths in smaller conflicts that are not considered wars.1
Homicide rates over the long term
by Eisner 3/7/24 Our World in Data
Explore charts that include this data
Data-driven policing’s threat to our constitutional rights
by Angel Diaz 13/9/21 BROOINGS
Across the country, the tools that power modern police surveillance contribute to cycles of violence and harassment. Predictive policing systems digitally redline certain neighborhoods as “hotspots” for crime, with some systems generating lists of people they think are likely to become perpetrators.
Comparison of the criminal statistics of the United States and the Federal Republic of Germany
by Raymond H.C. Teske Jr 1982 ScienceDirect
A systematic procedure for comparing the criminal statistics of the United States and the Federal Republic of Germany is presented. The procedure was developed after (1) reviewing and translating applicable paragraphs of the Federal Republic of Germany's Penal Code and (2) reviewing both the formal and informal processes used in both countries for recording crime statistics. Subsequently, a detailed comparison of criminal statistics was made using this comparative procedure.
Crime Statistics
Crime statistics are largely generated from three avenues—administrative data, surveys, and ethnographic studies. Administrative data are often referred to as the ‘official’ statistics as they are drawn most often from the records kept by state institutions. The first official statistics were published in France in 1827 (Coleman and Moynihan 1996). Self-report surveys are the other major source of crime data or statistics and involve interviewing perpetrators and victims of crime.
Urban crime and environmental triggers: A five-year analysis of reported offences in Porto's historic centre
by Rui L. Maia 11/25 ScienceDirect
Crime, especially urban criminality, remains a relevant issue for academics, stakeholders and citizens. Traditionally safety has been addressed as a justice and human right issue but has evolved to become a public health concern and a restraint for the sustainability of cities.
Differential compliance with the reporting of hate crime statistics as a function of state laws
by Matthew Vanden Bosch 2025 ScienceDirect
Organizational compliance with legislative mandates relies heavily on organizational meaning-making, where organizations determine how to comply – whether “ceremoniously” or in reality – while protecting organizational goals from legislative interference.
Historical redlining and criminal offending trajectories from adolescence to adulthood
by Dylan B. Jackson 5/25 ScienceDirect
Area-level research finds higher contemporary crime rates in historically redlined communities. However, there is a lack of multilevel research assessing the relationship between living in a historically redlined area, individual patterns of criminal offending over time, and whether this relationship varies for different racial-ethnic groups.
Subcultures of violence and African American crime rates
by Barry Latzer 2018 ScienceDirect
From the late 1960s to the mid-1990s, the United States suffered a massive crime wave, including perhaps the biggest sustained rise in violent crime in its history, certainly the biggest in the 20th century (Latzer, 2016). Violent crime rates, as measured by FBI reports of offenses known to police, rose from 161 per 100,000 in 1960 to 758 in 1991, a staggering 371% escalation. Murder rates for 1970 to 1995 averaged 8.97 per 100,000, and in fourteen of these years tolled 9 per 100,000 or more (FBI, UCR Data Online).
The lead-crime hypothesis: A meta-analysis
by Anthony Higney 11/22 ScienceDirect
Homicide rates spiked and then fell in a consistent pattern across many western countries in the 20th century (Fig. 1). In the US alone the homicide rate has halved since the 1980s, when it was as high as the road fatality rate is today. In other countries the falls are not so great in magnitude, but still amount to many lives saved. If the causes of this fall were known, many more deaths and trauma could be prevented.
Social-economic change and its impact on violence: Homicide history of Qing China
by Zhiwu Chen 1/17 ScienceDirect
This paper constructs a quantitative history of the homicide rate in Qing China and investigates its social and economic drivers. Estimates based on historical archives indicate that this annual rate ranged between 0.35 and 1.47 per 100,000 inhabitants during the 1661–1898 period, a low level unmatched by Western Europe until the late 19th century.
Lead exposure and violent crime in the early twentieth century
by James J. Feigenbaum 10/16 ScienceDirect
In the second half of the nineteenth century, many American cities built water systems using lead or iron service pipes. Municipal water systems generated significant public health improvements, but these improvements may have been partially offset by the damaging effects of lead exposure through lead water pipes.
Homicide data: how sources differ and when to use which one
by Bastian Herre and Fiona Spooner 26/6/23 our World in Data
But measuring homicides is challenging. Even homicide researchers do not always agree on whether the specific cause of death should be considered a homicide. Even when they agree on what counts as a homicide, it is difficult to count all of them.
A test of life history strategy theory as a predictor of criminal violence across 51 nations
by Michael Minkov 6/16 ScienceDirect
Proponents of life history strategy (LHS) theory propose that it is an explanation of intra-societal non-political violence, such as homicide and assault. Criminologists usually prefer a different explanation: variation in national violent crime rates is a function of differences in social–structural characteristics, such as absolute or relative poverty (socioeconomic inequality).
Homicide rate per 100,000 population
UNODC collects intentional homicide data from criminal justice systems (law enforcement records) and public health systems (death certificates).
UCR violent crime rates, 1958–2000: recorded and offender-generated trends
by Robert M O’Brien 9/2003 ScienceDirect
According to Uniform Crime Report data, the rates of some violent crimes, such as rapes and aggravated assaults, increased steadily from the early 1960s until the early 1990s with only an occasional downturn. The increase in robbery rates slowed somewhat, but overall increased during most of this period. Homicide is the only UCR violent crime that did not increase relatively steadily throughout this period: it showed no clear trend up or down from the mid-1970s to the early 1990s.
The historical geography of homicide in the U.S., 1935–1980
by Keith D. Harries 1985 ScienceDirect
High homicide rates constitute a major public health problem in the United States. In the South high rates have been historically conspicuous, and have contributed to the elevated level in the U.S. compared to other countries at a comparable stage of development. This research illustrates the historical persistence of homicide in the South and presents a regionalization of U.S. states based on their quinquennial homicide profiles since 1935.
COVID and crime: An early empirical look
by David S. Abrams 2/21 ScienceDirect
Data from 25 large U.S. cities is assembled to estimate the impact of the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic on crime. There is a widespread immediate drop in both criminal incidents and arrests most heavily pronounced among drug crimes, theft, residential burglaries, and most violent crimes. The decline appears to precede stay-at-home orders, and arrests follow a similar pattern as reports. There is no decline in homicides and shootings, and an increase in non-residential burglary and car theft in most cities, suggesting that criminal activity was displaced to locations with fewer people.
The influences of incident and contextual characteristics on crime clearance of nonlethal violence: A multilevel event history analysis
by Aki Roberts 4/2008 ScienceDirect
Using multilevel event history analyses, this article investigates the effects of both incident and contextual (social disorganization and police resources) factors on crime clearance by arrest for robbery, forcible rape, and aggravated assault incidents in 106 cities.
Police facial recognition applications and violent crime control in U.S. cities
by Thaddeus L. Johnson 12/24 ScienceDirect
This study presents novel insights into the effects of police facial recognition applications on violent crime and arrest dynamics across 268 U.S. cities from 1997 to 2020. We conducted generalized difference-in-differences regressions with multiway fixed effects to exploit this technology's staggered implementation.
Measuring the effect of historical structural racism on community firearm violence in US cities
by Ariana N. Gobaud 11/24 ScienceDirect
Community firearm violence in the United States (US), defined as fatal and nonfatal interpersonal shootings in public spaces, (Community Violence) disproportionately affects neighborhoods where people racialized as Black predominately live. While previous research has established structural racism as a fundamental cause of community firearm violence, (Mehranbod et al., 2022; Siegel et al., 2023) methods to measure and quantify structural racism vary widely. E
Comparing crime rates between undocumented immigrants, legal immigrants, and native-born US citizens in Texas
by Michael T. Light 7/12/20 PNAS
Despite its centrality to public and political discourse, we lack even basic information on fundamental questions regarding undocumented immigrants and crime. This stems largely from data constraints. Going beyond existing research, we utilize data from the Texas Department of Public Safety, which checks and records the immigration status of all arrestees throughout the state.
Historical Slavery Predicts Contemporary Violent Crime: Inequality and Political Attitudes as Mediators
This study examines the long-term impact of historical slavery on contemporary violent crime in the United States, investigating the claim that slavery perpetuated violence.
Individualization and the decline of homicide: England 1250–1750
by Mark Cooney 2023 ScienceDirect
A key issue in criminology is to account for variation in rates of violence across time and place. An important variable largely neglected in the literature is individualism. Building on theoretical ideas proposed by Durkheim, Black, and Baumgartner, we illustrate the role of increased individualism with a case study: the decline of homicide in England, 1250–1750.
Block clubs and crime in Chicago: The transplant hypothesis
by Aleksandra J. Snowden 3/25 ScienceDirect
Prior research has emphasized the interconnection between community structure, civil society activism, and crime. Yet, the statistical association between crime and block clubs, a key element in local networks of voluntary associations and mutual self-help, has not been previously examined in the literature. We collected cross-sectional data on block clubs and crime in Chicago, Illinois, and estimated a set of negative binomial and quantile regression models, while controlling for social disorganization, nearby block club and crime levels, residential population and area size. W
Police levels and crime rates: An instrumental variables approach
by John L. Worrall 5/2010 ScienceDirect
While police levels may affect crime, governments may react to crime by increasing police levels. The instrumental variables (IV) approach to this problem has proven difficult due to the problem of locating instruments for police levels. Using panel data from over 5000 cities (1990–2001), we instrumented police levels with two types of federal law enforcement grants, thus yielding over-identified models.
Religion, Crime, and Social Trust in Historic Germany: Are Catholics More Inclined to Violate Social Norms than Protestants?
by Peter Graeff, Gert Tinggaard Svendsen 2/12/2020 WILEY
In 1676, Isaac Newton modestly wrote that if he had seen further than others, it was because he stood on the shoulders of giants (Newton, 1676). Olson (1965) could have said in the same way that if he stood on the shoulders of a giant, it must have been Adam Smith and his book The Wealth of Nations.
New evidence that lead exposure increases crime
by Jennifer L. Doleac BROOKINGS
A recent investigation by Reuters found that lead exposure affects kids in communities across the country — not just in high-profile cities like Flint, Michigan.
Tract level associations between historical residential redlining and contemporary fatal encounters with police
by Jeffrey Mitchell 6/2022 ScienceDirect
How does structural racism influence where people are killed during encounters with police? We analyzed geo-located incidents of fatal encounters with police that occurred between 2000 and 2020 in Census tracts that received a classification by the Home Owners Loan Corporation (HOLC) during the 1930's.
A neighborhood-level view of riots, property values, and population loss: Cleveland 1950–1980
by William J. Collins 7/2007 ScienceDirect
We undertake a case study of riots in the context of Cleveland’s economic decline between 1950 and 1980. Our empirical perspective emphasizes differential changes in property values and population levels across census tracts depending on their proximity to the riots’ epicenter.
Rampage shootings: an historical, empirical, and theoretical overview
by Michael Rocque 2/18 ScienceDirect
Rampage shootings is a relatively new term to describe a phenomenon that has a long history. Rampage shootings are mass shootings (generally defined as involving four or more victims), taking place in a public location, with victims chosen randomly or for symbolic purposes.
Inequality, crime, and the long run legacy of slavery
by Paolo Buonanno 3/19 ScienceDirect
This paper investigates the relationship between economic inequality and crime in Colombian municipalities. Following recent scholarly research that suggests that the legacy of slavery is largely manifest in persistent levels of economic inequality, we instrument economic inequality with a census-based measure of the proportion of slaves in each municipality before the abolition of slavery in the 19 century.
Activity-adjusted crime rates show that public safety worsened in 2020
by Maxim Massenkoff 7/11/22 PNAS
The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic brought massive disruptions to economic and social life, including an unprecedented spike in homicides. Overall crime, however, was down. We resolve this apparent paradox by showing that after accounting for the fact that people were spending more time indoors in 2020, the risk of victimization in public actually increased. These recent changes in crime and activity provide a stark illustration of how conventional crime rates can fail to capture changes in public safety.
Homicides
by Bastian Herre Our World in Data
Homicides — when people intentionally and illegally kill others for personal reasons — are the most serious crime.
Guns and violence: The enduring impact of crack cocaine markets on young black males
by William N. Evans 2/22 ScienceDirect
The violence associated with crack cocaine markets in the 1980s and 1990s has repercussions today. Using cross-city variation in when crack cocaine arrived and an older comparison group, we estimate that the US murder rate of black males aged 15–24 was still 70 percent higher 17 years after crack markets had emerged. Using the fraction of gun-related suicides as a proxy for gun availability, we find that increased access to guns led to persistently higher murder rates.
Murder nature: Weather and violent crime in rural Brazil
by Phoebe W. Ishak 9/22 ScienceDirect
This paper examines the effect of weather shocks on violent crime using disaggregated data from Brazilian municipalities over the period 1991–2015. Employing a distributed lag model that takes into account temporal correlations of weather shocks and spatial correlation of crime rates, I document that adverse weather shocks in the form of droughts lead to a significant increase in violent crime in rural regions.
Trends and patterns in homicides in Italy: A 34-year descriptive study
by Monica Vichi 2/20 ScienceDirect
We collected data from the Italian Mortality Database (Italian National Institute of Statistics), for the study period. Temporal trends were analyzed using joinpoint regression analysis, with estimated annual percentage change computed for each detected trend. The possible effect of the mafia subculture was examined using an indicator of mafia social penetration. Differences between age classes, genders, geographical regions, and homicide methods were also analyzed.
Homicides committed by women in Montenegrin past and present
by Rajka Đoković 9/25 ScienceDirect
Women are the perpetrators of the crime of murder, both in the past and in contemporary society. New scientific knowledge is most often used in order to look at the contemporary patterns of behavior of female that led to the commission of the criminal act of murder.
The enduring impact of historical and structural racism on urban violence in Philadelphia
by Sara F. Jacoby PhD, MPH 2/18 ScienceDirect
Public health approaches to crime and injury prevention are increasingly focused on the physical places and environments where violence is concentrated. In this study, our aim is to explore the association between historic place-based racial discrimination captured in the 1937 Home Owners Loan Corporation (HOLC) map of Philadelphia and present-day violent crime and firearm injuries.
Moving North and into jail? The great migration and black incarceration
by Katherine Eriksson 3/19 ScienceDirect
Black incarceration rates in the U.S. grew relative to white incarceration rates throughout the first half of the 20th century despite substantial convergence in education levels and wages between the two groups. This paper considers the First Great Migration prior to 1940 as a factor which increased black male incarceration rates.
Evolutionary social science: A new approach to violent crime
by Nigel Barber 7/08 ScienceDirect
Evolutionary Social Science unites evolutionary psychology and social science. Its core assumptions are that: (1) modern societies owe their character to an interaction of hunter–gatherer adaptations with the modern environment; (2) some changes in societies reflect change in individuals; (3) historical changes and cross-societal differences can be due to similar adaptational mechanisms, and (4) different social contexts modify development through adaptive mechanisms.
Beyond the immediate effects of income inequality on homicide rates: A reply to Daly's critique
by Carlos Vilalta 7/24 ScienceDirect
This study responds to Martin Daly's critique of our 2022 study on the correlation between income inequality and homicide rates in Mexican municipalities. Our updated analysis incorporates both immediate and lagged effects of income inequality, revealing significant non-linear relationships between past inequality and current homicide rates.
Drugs, guns, and violent crime in California
by Susan L. Stewart 5/24 ScienceDirect
There is evidence linking use of controlled substances with perpetration of interpersonal violence. While the United States constitution protects the right to own a firearm, federal law prohibits firearm purchase and possession by persons believed to be at high risk for violence, including those who use controlled substances unlawfully.
