Super El Niños May Lose Their Punch in a Warming World
Current El Niño Development and Ocean Monitoring
Ocean Surface Temperatures Hit a Record High for June
Article link | The Guardian | The Guardian | July 1, 2026
Record ocean warmth coincides with a developing El Niño, raising concerns that a hotter baseline climate may intensify marine heat, storms, drought, and other climate extremes.
Record Sea Temperatures in June Push World Into 'Uncharted' Waters
Article link | Financial Times | Financial Times | July 1, 2026
Scientists warn that record sea-surface temperatures and the onset of El Niño are combining with long-term global warming to push climate risk into unfamiliar territory.
El Niño Is Underway
Article link | NASA Earth Observatory | NASA | June 18, 2026
NASA satellite observations show warm sea-level patterns across the Pacific as El Niño develops, offering an early view of how ocean heat is reorganizing global weather.
Pacific Warming Signals El Niño Has Stirred
Article link | European Space Agency | ESA | June 15, 2026
ESA satellite measurements show rapidly warming tropical Pacific waters, confirming that ocean observations are central to tracking El Niño development.
DeBriefed 12 June 2026: El Niño Begins
Article link | Cecilia Keating and Daisy Dunne | Carbon Brief | June 12, 2026
Carbon Brief summarizes the start of El Niño and related climate-policy developments, noting the heightened risk of extreme weather in a warming world.
El Niño Has Begun. It May Become the Strongest This Century
Article link | Science | Science | June 11, 2026
Scientists report that the developing El Niño could become extremely strong, with major implications for global temperature, rainfall, and climate risk.
El Nino Is Here and Scientists Fear It'll Be Big, Bad and Costly
Article link | Associated Press | AP News | June 11, 2026
NOAA confirmed El Niño conditions and warned that the event could strengthen enough to rank among the largest in the modern record.
El Nino Forms, Expected to Strengthen, Say NOAA Forecasters
Article link | NOAA | NOAA | June 11, 2026
NOAA forecasters announced that El Niño had formed and was likely to strengthen, increasing the odds of major seasonal climate impacts.
Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion
Article link | NOAA Climate Prediction Center | NOAA | June 11, 2026
NOAA’s ENSO diagnostic discussion reports El Niño conditions and explains how a strong event can tilt the odds of seasonal weather extremes.
El Niño Season Predicted to Start as Early as Next Month
Article link | Phys.org | Phys.org | April 24, 2026
WMO forecasts pointed to a likely return of El Niño conditions, with expected effects on global temperatures and rainfall patterns.
El Nino May Return in 2026 and Make Planet Even Hotter
Article link | Phys.org | Phys.org | March 2, 2026
Scientists warned that a 2026 El Niño could help push global temperatures higher, especially if its atmospheric effects peak in 2027.
New NOAA El Niño-Southern Oscillation Index Supports Drought Early Warning
Article link | NOAA Drought.gov | NOAA | March 11, 2026
NOAA describes a relative ENSO index designed to better connect Pacific conditions with drought early-warning needs in a warming climate.
Regional Weather, Heat, Drought, and Flood Impacts
India Warns of Below-Average July Monsoon Rains After Particularly Dry June
Article link | Reuters | Reuters | June 30, 2026
India warned that El Niño-linked drying could weaken monsoon rainfall, threatening agriculture, water supplies, and food security during a critical planting period.
What Would a Stronger El Niño Mean for Texas Hurricane Season or Houston Snowfall?
Article link | Houston Chronicle | Houston Chronicle | June 27, 2026
El Niño may reduce Atlantic hurricane activity through stronger wind shear while increasing winter storm and rainfall odds across parts of Texas.
Europe's Heatwave 'Virtually Impossible' Without Climate Change, Scientists Say
Article link | Reuters | Reuters | June 26, 2026
Scientists said a severe European heatwave was driven mainly by human-caused warming, showing how baseline climate change can dominate or reshape familiar climate-pattern signals.
Papua New Guinea at Risk of Food Shortages as El Niño Brings Frost and Drought
Article link | The Guardian | The Guardian | June 25, 2026
El Niño-linked drought, frost, and water stress are threatening crops and food security in Papua New Guinea, especially in vulnerable Highland communities.
A Strong El Niño May Be Imminent. Climate Change Will Make Its Effects Worse
Article link | Reuters | Reuters | June 2, 2026
Reuters reports that a strong El Niño could combine with global warming to amplify droughts, floods, heatwaves, crop losses, and wildfire risk.
El Niño Brings More Intense Rain to India's Wettest Regions
Article link | Phys.org | Phys.org | September 20, 2025
A study finds that El Niño can intensify extreme rainfall in some of India’s wettest regions, complicating simple assumptions about monsoon drought.
2024: An Eye-Opening Year of Extreme Weather and Climate
Article link | Phys.org | Phys.org | January 11, 2025
Scientists reviewed how El Niño, climate change, and extreme event attribution helped explain the severe weather and climate extremes of 2024.
Revisiting La Niña and Winter Snowfall
Article link | NOAA Climate.gov | NOAA | October 24, 2024
NOAA examines how La Niña affects winter snowfall patterns and why ENSO impacts vary regionally from one event to another.
Food Security, Commodities, Economy, and Preparedness
El Niño Is Coming. At the FAO We Know Where Drought Will Hit Hardest
Article link | Reuters | Reuters | June 29, 2026
The FAO says drought-risk mapping can help target early action as El Niño develops in a world already stressed by climate change and food insecurity.
A Super El Niño Looks Likely This Year
Article link | Council on Foreign Relations | Council on Foreign Relations | June 22, 2026
Analysts warn that a possible super El Niño could amplify deadly heat, drought, wildfire, and food-system stresses unless early-warning and adaptation systems are strengthened.
Explainer: Why a Strong El Niño Leaves Tropical Commodities Acutely Exposed
Article link | Reuters | Reuters | June 18, 2026
Strong El Niño conditions could stress cocoa, coffee, and other tropical commodity crops through drought, heat, rainfall disruptions, and supply-chain impacts.
How a 'Super' El Niño Risks Worsening Extreme Weather in a Climate Changed World
Article link | Aaron Gray-Block | Greenpeace International | June 16, 2026
Greenpeace explains how a very strong El Niño could interact with human-driven warming to intensify heat, drought, floods, wildfires, and food-system disruption.
Here Are 10 Ways a 'Super' El Niño Could Impact the Planet
Article link | The Guardian | The Guardian | June 9, 2026
The article outlines possible worldwide effects of a super El Niño, including drought, flooding, food insecurity, wildfire risk, heat stress, and marine disruption.
El Niño Could Be a Systemic Shock That We Must Prepare For
Article link | World Economic Forum | World Economic Forum | June 4, 2026
The World Economic Forum argues that El Niño should be treated as a systemic risk affecting food, energy, water, trade, and public health.
Prepare for Imminent Return of El Niño, UN Warns
Article link | The Guardian | The Guardian | June 2, 2026
The UN warned governments to prepare for El Niño-driven climate disruptions as the world enters the event from an already warmer baseline.
UN Warns World to Prepare for El Nino Extreme Weather
Article link | Phys.org | Phys.org | June 2, 2026
The World Meteorological Organization warned that El Niño was likely to develop and could increase the risk of drought, heavy rainfall, and heat extremes.
WMO: Prepare for El Niño
Article link | World Meteorological Organization | WMO | June 2, 2026
WMO says El Niño is likely to emerge and may become strong, urging countries to use early warnings to reduce climate-related damage.
El Niño Events Projected to Cut Life Expectancy Gains and Economic Growth
Article link | Phys.org | Phys.org | January 12, 2026
A study projects that future El Niño events may have long-lasting effects on life expectancy and economic stability, especially in vulnerable regions.
Enduring Impacts of El Niño on Life Expectancy in Past and Future Climates
Article link | Y. Xu et al. | Nature Climate Change | January 2026
Researchers find that El Niño can leave persistent health and economic impacts, suggesting ENSO extremes are an underrecognized long-term climate risk.
Super and Extreme El Niño in a Warming World
El Niño Is Back With a Vengeance—and Fears of 'Godzilla' Strength
Article link | The Guardian | The Guardian | June 21, 2026
Forecasters warned that a very strong El Niño could worsen hunger, famine risk, drought, and flooding in regions already vulnerable to climate extremes.
Super El Niños May Lose Their Punch in a Warming World
Article link | Sayan Tribedi | Phys.org | June 16, 2026
Climate-model research suggests future extreme El Niño events may become less distinct from ordinary El Niño events in some atmospheric impacts as the planet warms.
What Is Godzilla El Niño?
Article link | Phys.org | Phys.org | June 4, 2026
Explainer article describes how a very strong El Niño can shift tropical Pacific winds, ocean heat, rainfall, and global temperature patterns.
A Very Strong El Niño Is Approaching. Here's What We Can Expect
Article link | Phys.org | Phys.org | June 3, 2026
Researchers explain how a potential super El Niño could raise global temperatures and shift rainfall patterns across the Americas, East Africa, Australia, and Southeast Asia.
What Scientists Know About a Potential 'Super' El Nino
Article link | Phys.org | Phys.org | May 22, 2026
Scientists explain the ingredients that could turn a developing El Niño into a very strong event and why forecast uncertainty remains high.
State of the Climate: Strong El Niño Puts 2026 on Track for Second-Warmest Year
Article link | Zeke Hausfather | Carbon Brief | April 21, 2026
Carbon Brief analyzes how global warming and a strong El Niño could make 2026 one of the hottest years ever recorded.
Terrible Team: Super El Niño and Climate Change Could Lead to Record-Breaking Global Temperatures
Article link | Marc Alessi | Union of Concerned Scientists | April 21, 2026
The Union of Concerned Scientists explains how a potential super El Niño could briefly push global temperatures to new highs on top of human-caused warming.
'Super El Niño' Is Officially Here, Scientists Say
Article link | The Guardian | The Guardian | April 13, 2026
Explainer article reviews what a super El Niño means, how it forms, and why its effects are more dangerous in a hotter climate.
Saltier Seas in Spring Double the Chance of Extreme El Niño
Article link | Phys.org | Phys.org | January 26, 2026
Research suggests springtime salinity patterns can improve predictions of extreme El Niño events by revealing ocean conditions that favor strong warming.
Are We Heading Towards a Super El Niño in 2026?
Article link | Zero Carbon Analytics | Zero Carbon Analytics | 2026
Briefing explains how a possible super El Niño could add short-term heat to the planet while climate change raises the long-term baseline.
Strong El Niño Expected to Drive Record-Breaking Global Temperatures
Article link | Phys.org | Phys.org | September 28, 2023
Researchers warned that the 2023-2024 El Niño could raise global temperatures and trigger marine heatwaves, droughts, wildfires, and crop impacts.
Increasing Frequency of El Niño Events Expected by 2040
Article link | Phys.org | Phys.org | March 7, 2022
Researchers project that El Niño events may become more frequent by 2040 across emissions scenarios, increasing concern for climate extremes.
Climate Warming Promises More Frequent Extreme El Niño Events
Article link | Phys.org | Phys.org | October 21, 2019
Researchers find that warming has shifted El Niño development patterns and may favor more frequent extreme events in the future.
Get Used to Heat Waves: Extreme El Niño Events to Double
Article link | Phys.org | Phys.org | January 19, 2014
A major climate-model study projects that extreme El Niño events may double in frequency as global warming changes tropical Pacific rainfall patterns.
Frequency of Extreme El Niños to Double as Globe Warms
Article link | Nature | Nature | January 19, 2014
Nature reports on research projecting more frequent extreme El Niño events under warming, with major implications for heat waves and rainfall extremes.
Climate Change and ENSO Explainers
El Niño Explained: Global Weather, UK Impacts, and Climate Change
Article link | National Centre for Atmospheric Science | NCAS | June 3, 2026
Scientists explain El Niño basics, global teleconnections, UK impacts, and how climate change can alter the risks associated with ENSO events.
Ancient El Niño Patterns Hint at Future Climate Trends
Article link | Phys.org | Phys.org | May 26, 2026
Paleoclimate evidence from ancient warm periods helps scientists understand how El Niño behavior may shift under long-term global warming.
Scientists Warn El Niño Could Intensify Climate Extremes in 2026
Article link | Climate Change News | Climate Change News | May 12, 2026
Scientists warn that El Niño and long-term warming could push global temperatures toward record levels and worsen extreme weather.
Climate Patterns May Shape Where Violent Conflict Risks Are Amplified
Article link | Phys.org | Phys.org | May 11, 2026
Research links ENSO and Indian Ocean climate patterns to regional climate stresses that can influence conflict risk in vulnerable societies.
'Indian Niño' Drove Record Heat in 2023 and 2024, New Study Suggests
Article link | Phys.org | Phys.org | May 6, 2026
Researchers identify an Indian Ocean climate pattern that helped explain recent record heat alongside El Niño and human-caused warming.
Weather Repetitions and Climate Fitness
Article link | NOAA Climate.gov | NOAA | January 25, 2024
NOAA explains how El Niño impacts can appear in repeated weather patterns while still interacting with broader climate variability.
Has Climate Change Already Affected ENSO?
Article link | NOAA Climate.gov | NOAA | July 27, 2023
NOAA reviews evidence on whether climate change has already altered ENSO and explains why warming can amplify impacts even when ENSO dynamics remain uncertain.
How Will a Warming World Impact El Niño?
Article link | NOAA Climate.gov | NOAA | May 10, 2022
NOAA reports on research suggesting future warming may make El Niño events grow faster and persist longer in the eastern Pacific.
How Will a Warming World Impact El Niño?
Article link | NOAA Climate Program Office | NOAA | May 6, 2022
NOAA describes research showing that future El Niño events could intensify more quickly and last longer under projected warming.
ENSO and Climate Change: What Does the New IPCC Report Say?
Article link | NOAA Climate.gov | NOAA | September 27, 2021
NOAA summarizes IPCC findings that ENSO will remain a dominant source of year-to-year climate variability in a warmer world.
Fewer El Niño and La Niña Events in a Warmer World
Article link | Phys.org | Phys.org | August 26, 2021
Climate model research suggests future warming may reduce the frequency of ENSO events, showing why projections of El Niño change remain complex.
Is ENSO Running a Fever, or Is It Global Warming?
Article link | NOAA Climate.gov | NOAA | May 4, 2021
NOAA explains how warming sea-surface temperatures can complicate ENSO indices and affect preparation for rainy or dry seasons.
The Rise of El Niño and La Niña
Article link | NOAA Climate.gov | NOAA | October 23, 2020
NOAA describes the ocean-atmosphere coupling that allows El Niño and La Niña events to grow and influence global climate.
El Nino Has Rapidly Become Stronger and Stranger
Article link | Phys.org | Phys.org | May 7, 2019
Scientists report that El Niño behavior has changed over recent decades, with stronger and more unusual events linked to shifting Pacific warming patterns.
Changes in ENSO Impacts in a Warming World
Article link | NOAA Climate.gov | NOAA | September 27, 2018
NOAA explains how climate change may alter ENSO impacts on temperature, wildfire, and rainfall patterns.
El Nino and Global Warming—What's the Connection?
Article link | Phys.org | Phys.org | February 3, 2016
Explainer reviews the debate over whether climate change will make extreme El Niño events more common, stronger, or more damaging.
El Niño/Southern Oscillation Response to Global Warming
Article link | M. Latif and N. S. Keenlyside | PMC | 2008
Review article discusses how ENSO may respond to greenhouse warming and why model uncertainty remains a major challenge.
El Niño / La Niña Phenomena
Article link | World Meteorological Organization | WMO | No date
WMO explains El Niño and La Niña, their global climate effects, and why their impacts unfold against a background of human-caused warming.
El Niño & La Niña: El Niño-Southern Oscillation
Article link | NOAA Climate.gov | NOAA | No date
NOAA provides a central explainer on ENSO, including current status, forecasts, impacts, and how El Niño and La Niña shape global climate.
El Niño
Article link | NASA Science | NASA | No date
NASA explains El Niño formation, satellite observations, Pacific wind changes, and the global weather impacts of ENSO.
What Is the El Niño–Southern Oscillation in a Nutshell?
Article link | NOAA Climate.gov | NOAA | No date
NOAA explains the basics of ENSO, including how tropical Pacific ocean temperatures and atmospheric circulation affect weather worldwide.
Climate Change and ENSO: Take 2
Article link | NOAA Climate.gov | NOAA | No date
NOAA explores whether rainfall-based measures can clarify how global warming may influence future ENSO behavior.
ENSO + Climate Change = Headache
Article link | NOAA Climate.gov | NOAA | No date
NOAA explains why climate change makes ENSO interpretation harder by increasing rainfall variability and shifting background climate conditions.
Extreme El Niño Frequency Increase
Article link | Climate Signals | Climate Signals | No date
Climate Signals summarizes studies linking global warming to increased risk of extreme El Niño events and related drought, heat, flood, and wildfire hazards.
El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Global Warming
Article link | EBSCO | EBSCO | No date
Overview article explains how ENSO relates to global warming, sea-surface temperatures, and discussions of future climate extremes.
What Is El Niño and How Is It Influenced by Climate Change?
Article link | Imperial College London Grantham Institute | Imperial College London | No date
Explainer describes El Niño, its global impacts, and how human-caused warming can raise the baseline temperature on which El Niño events occur.
La Niña, ENSO Cycles, and Climate Whiplash
El Niño/La Niña Update: May 2026
Article link | World Meteorological Organization | WMO | May 2026
WMO’s May update reports rising central-eastern Pacific sea-surface temperatures and a strong probability of El Niño development during 2026.
El Niño/La Niña Update: February 2026
Article link | World Meteorological Organization | WMO | February 2026
WMO’s February update assessed ENSO-neutral and La Niña probabilities before the Pacific shifted toward El Niño later in the year.
Rainfall–Salinity Link Sustains Prolonged La Niña Events
Article link | Phys.org | Phys.org | January 22, 2026
Research finds that rainfall and salinity feedbacks can help sustain prolonged La Niña events, improving understanding of the full ENSO cycle.
El Niño and La Niña Synchronize Global Droughts and Floods
Article link | Phys.org | Phys.org | January 12, 2026
Scientists show that ENSO phases can synchronize dry and wet extremes across distant regions, creating simultaneous climate stresses around the world.
A Subtle Return of La Niña
Article link | NASA Earth Observatory | Phys.org | December 16, 2025
NASA describes the return of weak La Niña conditions and explains how the cool phase of ENSO affects weather and climate patterns.
Climate Whiplash Effects Due to Rapidly Intensifying El Niño-La Niña Cycle
Article link | Phys.org | Phys.org | October 16, 2025
Climate-model research projects possible shifts toward more regular and amplified El Niño-La Niña swings, increasing concern about future climate whiplash.
Consecutive El Niños Are Happening More Often and the Result Can Be Devastating
Article link | Phys.org | Phys.org | April 6, 2025
Researchers warn that back-to-back El Niño events can compound droughts, floods, and agricultural losses, especially where communities lack recovery time.
La Niña Back This Summer? Not Likely—and Unofficial Declarations Are Jumping the Gun
Article link | Phys.org | Phys.org | January 7, 2025
Scientists caution against premature ENSO declarations, explaining why seasonal timing and persistence matter for identifying El Niño or La Niña.
Global Warming Will Cause More Multiyear La Niña Events
Article link | Phys.org | Phys.org | July 26, 2023
A study projects that warming could increase multiyear La Niña events, reshaping the cold phase that often follows strong El Niño episodes.
Where Does Global Warming Go During La Niña?
Article link | NOAA Climate.gov | NOAA | November 1, 2022
NOAA explains how El Niño and La Niña shift heat between ocean and atmosphere, affecting short-term global temperature fluctuations.
Global Warming Doubles Risk of Extreme La Niña Event
Article link | Phys.org | Phys.org | January 26, 2015
Researchers find that global warming could double the risk of extreme La Niña events, often following extreme El Niño episodes.
ENSO Forecasting, Models, and Climate Science
Giant Pacific Warm Wave Signals El Niño Weather Could Be Ahead
Article link | Phys.org | Phys.org | May 27, 2026
Satellite data show Kelvin waves of warm water moving east across the Pacific, a classic precursor to El Niño development.
Simple Ocean-Based Model Forecasts a Powerful El Niño
Article link | Phys.org | Phys.org | April 21, 2026
A simple ocean-based ENSO model forecast a strong El Niño, highlighting how sea level and ocean heat data can improve early warning.
El Nino Prediction Based on Weather Forecast and Geographical Time-Series Data
Article link | Viet Trinh et al. | arXiv | April 5, 2026
Researchers propose a deep-learning framework using weather forecasts, geographic data, and ocean-atmosphere variables to improve El Niño prediction.
The Rise and Fall of ENSO in a Warming World
Article link | PJ Tuckman and Da Yang | arXiv | March 3, 2026
A modeling study suggests ENSO variability may rise temporarily and then weaken over the long term as greenhouse warming changes ocean stratification and atmospheric circulation.
Climate Network and Complexity Based ENSO Forecast for 2026
Article link | Josef Ludescher et al. | arXiv | February 16, 2026
Researchers tested network and complexity-based ENSO forecasts, illustrating the uncertainty and difficulty of predicting El Niño strength months ahead.
Why Some Central Pacific El Niños Die Quickly While Others Persist
Article link | Phys.org | Phys.org | January 24, 2026
Scientists identify factors that influence whether Central Pacific El Niño events fade quickly or persist, improving seasonal planning and risk forecasts.
Future Climate Response to Observed Strong El Niño Analogues
Article link | P. Trascasa-Castro et al. | PMC | 2025
Researchers use strong El Niño analogues to examine how future warming may alter winter atmospheric responses and teleconnections.
Climate Network and Complexity Approach Predict Neutral ENSO Event for 2025
Article link | J. Ludescher et al. | arXiv | January 19, 2025
Researchers use climate-network and complexity methods to predict ENSO state, showing how difficult it is to forecast transitions between neutral, El Niño, and La Niña phases.
Contributions of ENSO Diversity to Low-Frequency Changes in ENSO Variance
Article link | Jakob Schlör et al. | arXiv | July 21, 2023
Researchers analyze how different El Niño and La Niña types contribute to long-term changes in ENSO variance and predictability.
Fidelity of El Niño Simulation Matters for Predicting Future Climate
Article link | Phys.org | Phys.org | August 28, 2020
Researchers show that climate models must accurately simulate El Niño asymmetry to predict future tropical Pacific warming.
Understanding the Origin of Extreme Events in El Niño-Southern Oscillation
Article link | Arnob Ray et al. | arXiv | June 22, 2020
A dynamical-systems study explores how extreme ENSO events can emerge from slow-fast ocean-atmosphere interactions and nonlinear instability.
(Un)Predictability of Strong El Niño Events
Article link | John Guckenheimer et al. | arXiv | October 9, 2017
Researchers examine why strong El Niño events can be difficult to predict, using a chaotic recharge-oscillator framework.
Climate Network Suggests Enhanced El Niño Global Impacts in Localized Areas
Article link | Jingfang Fan et al. | arXiv | September 2, 2016
A climate-network study maps how El Niño and La Niña impacts can concentrate in localized global regions rather than affecting all areas equally.
ENSO Forecast
Article link | International Research Institute for Climate and Society | Columbia University | No date
IRI provides current ENSO forecasts, model probabilities, and Pacific sea-surface-temperature outlooks used for seasonal climate planning.
Official NOAA CPC ENSO Strength Probabilities
Article link | NOAA Climate Prediction Center | NOAA | No date
NOAA displays probabilities for weak, moderate, strong, and very strong El Niño or La Niña conditions across upcoming seasons.
Ecosystems and Local Teleconnections
ENSO and Salmon
Article link | NOAA Climate.gov | NOAA | August 4, 2022
NOAA explains how ENSO affects marine ecosystems and salmon, showing that ocean-climate variability has ecological as well as weather impacts.
Moose Tracks Through Alaska and ENSO
Article link | NOAA Climate.gov | NOAA | June 23, 2022
NOAA examines how ENSO influences Alaska climate patterns and why local impacts can differ from broad regional expectations.
